Leafs Fantasy Update: Buy Low Sell High

For all my fellow poolies out there the fantasy hockey season is in full swing. With teams and players alike starting to establish themselves as pretenders and contenders, now is probably a good time to take a hard look at both your fantasy roster, and the other teams in your pool.

Once the draft ends, the only real way to improve your team is through astute waiver pickups and crafty trades. The key to winning any trade is to know when it’s appropriate to buy low, and when the time is right to sell high. Through this method you can ensure you're always getting the best value in any transaction. The trick, of course, is understanding when is the perfect time to buy and sell on your players. It’s far from an exact science, but through good research and watching a lot of hockey (I recommend ordering NHL center ice, best 30 bucks a month I’ve ever spent) you can put yourself, and your fantasy team in a position to succeed.

Thankfully, when it comes to Leafs players you have your friends at Blue Chip Prospects to update you on their fantasy value, and when to buy or sell.

Keeping Myself Honest: Reviewing My Fantasy Advice

Through a month of the year, my own fantasy team has done fairly well.  I'm in third in the league with a very solid team but I find myself well back of the top two squads, each of whom would get a first-round bye if the playoffs were to start today.  My schedule to start the year has been a tough one with each of the three teams I've played falling inside the playoff cutoff.

Enough about me, how about you?  In the lead-up to this year's season I put out a few articles on players that I liked to varying degrees as well as a list of sleepers.  In the interest of accountability, I figure we should assess my performance. 

Here we go;

2 Can Be As Bad As 1

You’ve spent weeks prepping and sifting through an endless stack of fantasy magazines, reading online blogs, and asking your dad what he thinks about Luongo this year. Yes, draft night has finally arrived. Good news – you’ll have a great evening with a few buddies and some cold beer while ripping on the jerk who takes Claude Giroux 3 rounds early. Bad news – you just found out you have the 2nd overall pick.

Over the last 4 years it has become painfully obvious that the best player in the wonderful world of fantasy hockey is none other than Alexander Ovechkin. He is to fantasy hockey what the Beatles were to classic rock, what Pamela Anderson was to mediocre syndicated TV series from the 1990s – safe to say, Ovie is awesome.

With Ovechkin as the clear cut #1 on every draft board you will be left with the almost impossible decision at #2 – Crosby or Malkin. Yes, some of you are reading this and saying what about the Sedins, Backstrom, Stamkos, Parise...etc. If you think that there are other players than Sid and Gino to be considered at #2 that’s fine. You’re entitled to your opinion – your just wrong.

Rick Nash: The Untold Story

Ah yes kids – as your parents probably taught you (at least if they were good parents) there are two sides to every story in life. That holds true in fantasy GMs opinion of Columbus “power” winger Rick Nash.

Many pundits will point out that Nash has never truly achieved “superstar” status – and they are probably right. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t a valuable fantasy commodity now, and for years to come.

Player Spotlight - Rick Nash

Alright fantasy GMs, it's time to smarten up.

In the name of all that is hockey, do not draft this man!

Every year, without exception, Rick Nash is drafted in the top 25-40 selections of nearly every draft.  Why?  Explain yourselves puck heads.  What is it about this guy that makes you take him so soon?

I play in a pretty competitive keeper league that had our inaugural draft last season.  The guys in the pool know hockey.  Having issued this disclaimer; Rick Nash was drafted 22nd overall.

Last season Nash was a minus player who put up 67 points.  Does that look like 22nd overall-type production to you?

Player Spotlight - Ilya Kovalchuk

Now that the big Russian sniper is without a doubt staying in the NHL until his bones crumble to dust, we can finally have a look at what fantasy owners can expect from one of the NHL's most prolific scorers.

There was once a time when this profile would have been all but useless.  Kovalchuk used to be one of the most steady and reliable players in the league.  When drafting him, you knew that you'd be picking up 40-50 goals, many of them on the powerplay, and shot totals in the low to mid 300s.

Undervalued Veterans

Every year the NHL seems to be getting younger and younger. As new rule changes continue to put an emphasis on skill and speed at the expense of size and experience (I realize that’s a generality but you see the trend). However, every year there are a number of proven veteran fantasy players who get passed over in favour of younger players with that always important “potential”. Sadly, potential means very little in your fantasy league – below are some proven veterans that will consistently fill your categories all season long.

Player Spotlight: Alexander Semin

He was snakebit in last year’s playoff series against the hated Canadiens and he fights like Donkey Kong, but ‘the other Alex’ in Washington should be far more than an afterthought for fantasy GMs this year.

Alex Semin may be the most underrated player to go in your fantasy draft this year if the Yahoo! And Hockey News fantasy rankings are to be believed. Both lists have Semin ranked outside of the top 25, despite netting 40 goals and 84 points in 73 games last year – good for an overall ranking of 4th on the 2009-10 season according the the Y! rankings. So what’s changed? Semin is still with Washington, is in another contract year, is coming off his healthiest season in his career and still possesses a shot teammates have described as better than Ovechkin’s.  You can bank on Semin putting in 80 points and (assuming your league measures this stat) and taking close to 300 shots to boot.

Player Spotlight: Jarome Iginla

Remember the first time you beat your Dad at a sport? Remember how weird that was? It’s something that inevitably will happen to all fathers in sports, they get beaten by their sons. I grew up idolizing my Dad, and his ability to seemingly be good at all sports, especially hockey. So the day I realized I could skate a bit faster than him, and probably had softer hands was a sad one (he still shoots the puck harder than me). The inevitability of the transition of male dominance from father to son does not make it any less weird.

I recently had one of those “weird” feelings dawn on me when reading about Jarome Iginla – he is 33 years old. The young-upstart-warrior-captain-Calgary-fantasy-stud-muffin is 33 years old. Wow. For years Iginla has been absolutely bankable in fantasy hockey. A winger that will give your between 35-50 goals, 80-95 points, 300 plus shots, and close to 100 PIMs. At 33 he enters a precarious phase for a superstar. No longer possessing the physical gifts of his 20s, Iginla is still relied upon to lead the Flames offence. It’s weird and discomforting to think of new breed of young hockey players supplanting Iggy among the fantasy elite.

Sleepers

With fantasy drafts upcoming, aspiring GMs everywhere are pouring over stats, reading blogs (thanks), and trying to figure out who they'll take in the first five rounds.  The truth of the matter is, leagues are rarely won in the early rounds.  The players that will go in the first two rounds in most leagues could very nearly go on consensus.

The key to succeeding in fantasy hockey is grabbing guys like Stastny, Stamkos, Kopitar or M. Koivu late.  With this in mind, here's my list of guys that should go late in your draft that could have a serious impact on your success this season.

Player Spotlight: Ryan Getzlaf

Fantasy managers take note;  Ryan Getzlaf is here to stay.

Getzlaf is huge at 6'4" and 220 lbs.  He's California's other Joe Thornton.  In terms of fantasy output, the 25 year-old centreman is even more than Thornton.

There are a few things about Getzlaf that are known.  Firstly, he's going to get a lot of assists.  Over the past three seasons he's averaged nearly 0.8 assists per game.  If you add goals into the equation, he's a 1.1 point per game producer.  That's respectable output on its own merit.

Sleepers.....zzzzz

So your fantasy draft has come around to the late rounds – all the top talent has been taken and you're left staring at your “sleepers” list. Here below are five sleepers you should take a chance on for 2010-11.

5. Cody Hodgson – He has been a bit of an afterthought since back injuries kept him out of the Canucks line-up last season. However, he should be healthy this season and remains a top end prospect. While Vancouver does have a deep team he could be used as trade bait at the deadline freeing up a top 6 role for him on another team.

4. Erik Karlsson – The Senators defenseman has rounded into form as the quarterback on the power play – But what about Gonchar? At his age, and with the mileage he has on him from numerous playoff runs I don’t see him playing a full season. Karlsson had 26 points in the final 60 games last season, look for him to hit 45-50 this year, with nice PP numbers.

3. Derick Brassard – He was a big time sleeper last season (I know because I drafted him instead of Stamkos..... F%@K!). Even though he bombed last year, he will have every opportunity to center Rick Nash and the secondary players in Columbus are developing nicely. With an improved lineup, and a bounce back from Steve Mason, look for Brassard to be an effective 3rd or 4th center on your team.

2. Olli Jokinen – You must be Jokinen right? Not the same Olli who was run out of town last year in Calgary and looked like he lacked the hockey sense to keep up in a minor peewee game, let alone the NHL? Yep.  He signed in Calgary because he has something to prove. I think he, Iggy, and Tanguay have one monster year left and this is it. Call me crazy.

1. Alex Kovalev – Yeah, I know he's 37 years old and hasn’t been a productive fantasy player in 2 years. But there is something about him.  When he wants to, he can still score in bunches. I think Kovalev believes he can get one more contract – and don’t ever underestimate the power of money to a Russian.

Are the Leafs fantasy-relevant?

For the past few seasons, fantasy leagues everywhere have largely avoided the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Sure, some guys were certainly drafted in all but the shallowest of leagues (Kessel, Kaberle) and some were probably taken on a dice roll (Grabovski, Stajan, Ponikarovsky).  Heck, some guys probably bounced between waivers and rosters throughout the year (Hagman, Gunnarsson, Gustavsson). 

For the most part however the Leafs were treated as though they had pox - they were to be avoided at all costs.

The reasons for this abound; not enough talent, a coach that shuffles lines regularly and goaltending that meant +/- that could rival the temperatures of Yukon winters.  Having said this, the seasons are starting to change in Leafland.

Gone are the top-line-minute-eaters like Stajan and to a lesser extent Ponikarovsky.  These players have been replaced with youngblood that have the chance to put up some very respectable fantasy numbers.  Let's have a look at some of the guys to watch for.

Player Spotlight: Anze Kopitar

It seems like just yesterday Toews was hoisting Lord Stanley over his head yelling “Hoss! Hoss!” (Great moment by the way, really showed Toews maturity as a captain) but it’s already August 11th. If you’re like me, and Fantasy Hockey is a year round occupation, the chances are you’ve already started to think about your upcoming draft in the fall.

With that in mind – I’m going to provide weekly player spotlights on some players you’d be advised to keep a close eye on come draft day.

First up, none other than the BIG Slovenian himself – Anze (the Giant) Kopitar.

Kovalchuk signs in NJ: This is a fantasy hockey Nightmare

After much deliberation, Ilya Kovalchuk has made the decision to do nothing. Really? All that waiting for this?

That's right folks, Kovalchuk will be plying his trade with the Devils again next season and while this blog has recently revolved almost entirely around the Toronto Maple Leafs, it was initially conceived as a fantasy hockey analysis engine as well. With that in mind, I'm going to break down the winners and losers now that Kovalchuk has made his decision.

Losers:

Anze Kopitar - I'm sure anyone with Kopitar in a keeper league was salivating at the prospect of a true goal-scoring winger skating on his wing. Kopitar increased his goal production last season but he's traditionally been more of a cycling / playmaking center. Now it looks like the Kings will be taking a run at Simon Gagne and even if they land him, I don't know if that helps Kopitar's value any.

Drew Doughty - BCP's love of Doughty has been well documented (refer to Man Crush posts) and with Kovalchuk, there's no doubt that there would have been a huge uptick in all fantasy puck-heads' appreciation for the young defenseman. It's a shame that we'll never know what Doughty's powerplay production could have been like if Kovalchuk had landed in LA.

Ilya Kovalchuk - I know his production in New Jersey was fine last year. I know that he wont have the same shackles that the Devils have often placed on their offensive talents. I know all of this. What I also know is that the Kings would have been a better fit for Kovalchuk's fantasy numbers. The Devils don't have a puck-mover of Doughty's calibre. They wont commit to locking Zajac on Kovalchuk's wing as long as Parise continues to be one of the better wingers in the game which will mean, more likely than not, a time share. In LA, he would have had Kopitar all to himself. His production wont decrease, but don't expect a meaningful per game increase in anything other than +/-.

Winners:

Anyone in your pool who doesn't own Kopitar, Doughty, or Kovalchuk - Let's face it, folks - fantasy hockey is a zero sum game. Any loss in value for your opponents is good for your team. If you don't own one of these three players in your keeper league then rejoice at today's news. If you're like me and you do? Weep softly so others can't hear your pain.

PIMP Rankings

First off, allow me to explain what I mean by ‘PIMP’. This is not a chronicle of the frat-party escapades of the Philadelphia Flyers or the goings-on in the back of Pat Kane’s limousine. Rather, this is a bit of a joke at the expense of a friend who is a fantasy hockey addict worthy of A&E’s Intervention. When pressed to justify his high opinion of a player that is a statistical underperformer, the friend in question will invariably attempt to settle the issue by proclaiming that the player in question “is a PIMP”.

Being a PIMP appears to depend solely on a player’s reputation and not his actual fantasy value. A PIMP may be talented, but his past performance, popularity with the fans, flashy play or other intangible qualities results in him acquiring a reputation that far exceeds his performance on the scoresheet.

A PIMP’s high reputation-to-actual quality ratio renders them unjustifiably expensive to trade for in keeper leagues and likely to be drafted far too early in one-year leagues. Better let someone else pick them up and deal with the frustration – it’s hard to win with a team of PIMPs.

The top five PIMPs according to the BCP Vice Squad are:

5) Roberto Luongo - Roberto Luongo is a talented goaltender, possibly even the most talented in the game. However, his fantasy performance doesn’t merit the exalted status he enjoys in most fantasy leagues. In the past three seasons Bobby Lu was never ranked higher than 4^th among ‘tenders on the Y! rankings and never led the league in wins, GAA or SV%. Luongo is still a great option in net, but he isn’t so much better than the other options available that it justifies the premium he is likely to command.

4) Jarome Iginla - Everyone but Pat Quinn seems to love Iggy. He scores, he fights, he set up Crosby’s gold medal-winning goal and he seems like a friendly guy. That’s the problem. The sad reality is that Iginla has been a fantasy disappointment lately – Yahoo! projected him at 9^th at the beginning of the last two seasons, but he finished ranked only 18^th in 2008-09 and 41^st in 2009-10. Unless Calgary gets Iggy a decent centre to line up beside, his stats are likely to continue to decline along with the Flames’ fortunes next season, but his reputation seems to be bulletproof.

3) Vincent Lecavalier - Vinny has had a rough couple of seasons – his role as the face of the franchise is being usurped by Steven Stamkos and he has been unable to duplicate his incredible play in 2006-07. Lecavalier tallied just 70 points this past season, and his performance in 2008-09 was horrid – he got only 67 points and missed the top 50 in the Y! rankings. Despite this worrying trend, Lecavalier is still regarded by many as a top fantasy player. He may yet return to form, but given the abundance of skilled centremen in the NHL there isn’t much to justify ranking Vinny among the elite fantasy players in the league.

2) Rick Nash - Nash is a big winger, a big talent and a big name in the NHL. Unfortunately for Nash’s fantasy owners, he doesn’t live up to his supersized reputation. Nash has never scored even 80 points, and his fantasy performance has only declined over time – over the last three seasons Nash’s Y! ranking fell steadily from 17^th to 25^th to 43^rd. None of this is likely to stop many fantasy owners from selecting Nash in the earliest rounds of most fantasy drafts before less flashy players like Mikko Koivu, Derek Roy and Paul Stastny, all of whom posted more points than Nash last season. Opt for substance when drafting – the spectacular end-to-end goals won’t be much consolation when Nash goes on one of his trademark pointless streaks.

1) Dion Phaneuf - Phaneuf does a lot of things fans love in a D-man – he’s got a great shot and he dishes out kidney-rupturing hits. Phaneuf was a Calder nominee in his rookie year, and he had a decent couple of seasons after that. However, the future captain of the Maple Leafs has never lived up to his lofty reputation in the fantasy game since. Phaneuf has still managed to post respectable goal totals, but he was soundly outperformed by a new guard of elite defensemen like Duncan Keith and Drew Doughty. Nonetheless, being the face of the most prominent franchise in the game has its perks (Elisha Cuthbert comes to mind) and an inflated fantasy value is one of them.