Morgan Rielly: One More Year In Junior

There's a lot of optimism in the air today as news that the NHL has made a significant move toward the players hit Twitter, the radio, and the televisions of hockey fans this afternoon.  While there is undoubtedly still some distance between the players and the owners, the prospect of losing an NHL season seems unlikely unless the players choose to really fixate on the 57% of revenues that they were set to earn had this lockout not taken place.

Should the league and the players come to terms, Leafs management will be faced with several tough personnel decisions, not the least of which is what to do with their shiny new toy; defenseman Morgan Rielly.

Rielly has shown very well this year.  He was a stand-out in the Canada-Russia Challenge this August and has registered 12 points in 9 games with an otherwise pretty crummy Moose Jaw team.  I don't doubt that he will make management's decision a tough one once play resumes but for this year, it's better to err on the side of caution with Rielly and to have him play the season in the WHL.

There are a number of reasons why I don't want to see Rielly spend significant time in the NHL this year.  Maybe I'm excessively cautious after watching Schenn deteriorate from a useful defensemen with lots of promise to a possession-nightmare and defensive liability -- it's possible.  I'd like to think though that I've checked my recency bias at the door and am basing this on some sound logic.

Toronto Maple Leafs Prospect Update

With no NHL hockey for the foreseeable future, the focus for Leafs fans has been on the team's developmental pipeline.  The CHL is a few weeks into their season and the AHL's opening weekend is just winding down, which has given us a little bit of information on how things are progressing with the future Leafs.

Morgan Rielly is 8 games into his WHL season with the Moose Jaw Warriors.  Rielly has been great this season on a pretty pitiful Warriors team.  Rielly's 12 points (2G, 10A) put him second in WHL scoring by defensemen trailing only Myles Bell (who is a year older and has played two more games).  He's also registered a point on 40% of Moose Jaw's goals which is absolutely ridiculous.  All of these flashy offensive totals may distract fans from Rielly's defensive game which has also been very strong so far this year.  His skating is so far ahead of most players at this level that he dominates on defense in transition and he's also been solid with his in-zone positioning so far this year.  Suffice to say, everything is A-OK with the Leafs' 2012 first rounder.

Tyler Biggs is a player I've seen a lot of in the early days of this OHL season.  His point totals look strong on the surface (5G, 4A in 10 games) but he's been skating with one of the OHL's leading scorers in Boone Jenner and two of his five goals have been empty-netters.  The book on Biggs is more or less accurate.  He's doesn't look to be a major point producer and his skating looks to be strained a lot of the time (whether he's quick to fatigue or just a bad skater is tough to say).  Biggs is, however, exceptional along the boards, a physically dominating player, and has a powerful shot.

Toronto Maple Leafs Prospect Watch

With nothing going on at the NHL-level, Leafs fans are looking to get their hockey fix in other areas.  Well, if you'd like to keep an eye on some Leafs prospects, here's what's coming up in the next little while.

In the OHL, the Oshawa Generals are on the road, playing the Peterborough Petes on Thursday, September 20th.  Tyler Biggs makes his Generals debut after a lacklustre season at the University of Miami (Ohio).  Biggs will almost certainly play a more prominent role with the Generals than he did with the Red Hawks last year and he'll be looking to prove something to his detractors.  

The Generals have been beating up on the Petes during the pre-season and will look to continue the trend this week.  Anchoring the Petes' defense is 2012 10th overall selection (Tampa Bay) Slater Koekkoek who will look to stifle Biggs and the Generals offense.

Biggs and the Generals then travel to Sudbury to play Leafs prospect Josh Leivo and the Sudbury Wolves on Friday, September 21st.  Leivo put up 73 points in 66 games last season with the Wolves and made a single appearance with the Toronto Marlies.  Leivo will look to improve on his breakout season last year and will undoubtedly be leaned on heavily by the Wolves this year.  If you're a Leafs fan in the Sudbury area, this one is definitely worth checking out. 

Leafs' Prospects: Matt Finn

Matt Finn at Prospect Camp (photo cred: Jack Bolland, Toronto Sun)

Since Brian Burke took over as GM of the Leafs in November of 2008, the Leafs have put together a decent run of apparent draft success outside of the first round.  In his first three drafts, Burke has added Jesse Blacker, Jerry D'Amigo, Brad Ross, Greg McKegg, Josh Leivo, and Petter Granberg as non-first round talent with a legitimate chance at cracking an NHL roster.  If we couple this with the fact that his only apparent 2nd round whiff seems to be Kenny Ryan, a player who has struggled to assert himself at the AHL level and spent the majority of last season in the ECHL, then it's fair to say that the Leafs have done a solid job of adding to their organizational depth in the less projectable rounds of the draft.

With the 35th overall pick in the 2012 draft, the Leafs look like they've added another solid prospect in Guelph Storm defenseman, Matt Finn.

Finn was on the radar for scouts from the beginning of his draft year, ranking 15th in Central Scouting's OHL preliminary rankings, then shooting up to 15th in the North American mid-term rankings before finally settling in at 16th in the final North American rankings.  He's a guy who underwent a fair degree of scrutiny and his game stood up to it, in the eyes of scouts.

With only 4 players on the European Rankings and 3 players from the Goalie Rankings having been taken ahead of Finn, Central Scouting would have projected him to go at 23 and yet he fell to the Leafs at 35.

Finn is a prospect who's very similar to a player the Leafs drafted last year in Stuart Percy.  While Finn's offensive numbers are a little more impressive than Percy's were in his draft year, neither player projects as an especially strong offensive defenseman at the NHL-level.  Like Percy, Finn is often described as "quietly effective" with great poise, decision-making, and a good first pass.  While he doesn't have the flashy skating or offensive flair of guys like Rielly or Gardiner, he does possess the kinds of tools that provide a lot of value to an NHL blueline.

Joe Colborne: As He Is

Scene from 8 1/2

"All the confusion of my life... it has been a reflection of myself.  Myself as I am, not as I'd like to be."  -Marcello Mastroianni, "8 1/2"


"8 1/2" is a semi-autobiographical film by director Federico Fellini where Mastroianni plays the role of Guido, a director with writer's block who, as a result of external pressures from studios, producers, and the media, has constructed a monstrosity of a movie set for a film that has yet to fully take shape in his mind.  The set itself comes to represent the oppressive pressure Guido feels to live up to his past successes and these pressures only further exacerbate his intellectual and artistic impotence.

In Joe Colborne, I see a lot of Fellini's Guido.

Colborne was drafted 16th overall in the 2008 Entry Draft and was always viewed as a project.  While his size and skating made him worthy of a first round selection, The Hockey News described his play as "indifferent" and his skills as "undeniable".

After two solid seasons at the University of Denver, in 2010-11, Colborne made the full-time transition to the AHL's Providence Bruins where he posted a fairly lacklustre 26 points in 55 games and was subsequently traded to the Maple Leafs.  Colborne had more success with the Marlies to close out the 2010-11 season (16 points in 20 games) and spent the first couple months of the 2011-12 season among the AHL leaders in points, earning an invitation to the AHL All-Star Game.  Colborne's point pace slowed to a crawl to close out the season as injuries (he was forced to skip the All-Star Game) and the loss of linemate Joey Crabb seemed to seriously affect his game.

Nazem Kadri: The Time Is Now

Of all the players who have worn the Leafs' sweater since the lockout, nobody gets more of my sympathy than Nazem Kadri. 

Drafted 7th overall in 2009, Kadri had to bear the weight of some serious expectations.  The Leafs, you see, were a team with Phil Kessel and a revolving door of players up front, coupled with a system that really had no talented forwards to speak of -- unless you're willing to count Jiri Tlusty. 

In 2008, Luke Schenn was drafted 5th overall and made the team out of camp in his first season.  Schenn then went on to have a solid first year with the team and played the hard-nosed brand of defense that fans in Toronto love.  This was the immediate precedent set for Kadri.

Kadri was supposed to be our next offensive star.  Would he make the team out of camp as Schenn did?  Would he be in the conversation for the Calder at year's end?  These were the questions that Leaf fans were asking.

Well, the answer to both was 'no'.

Kadri did however go back to Junior and the London Knights, and put up 93 points in 56 games and was one of the top players in the OHL.  He may not have made the Maple Leafs, but it seemed he was developing well.  Maybe he could win the Calder the next year?

Again, the answer was 'no'. 

In 2010-11, Kadri split time between the Marlies (44 GP) and the Leafs (29 GP).  While with the Leafs, the coach and GM both publicly lamented some of his decision-making with the puck.  He'd gotten bigger but maybe not in a good way as he seemed to lose some of the evasiveness that had made him a standout in the OHL.  Still, at nearly a point-per-game in the AHL and with 12 points in 29 games with the Leafs, there were more than occasional glimpses of the offensive skillset that saw him drafted early in the first round.

Joe Colborne and Jake Gardiner: Forcing Management's Hand

Things sure have started moving quickly for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

After years out of the playoffs and a minor league system that needed an infusion of talent, the Leafs currently find themselves in an unusual position.

For starters, the team sits among the leaders in the Eastern conference standings.  A fast start from their star players and a soft schedule has seen the Buds fly out of the gate with a 9-4-1 record.

The rapid development hasn't been limited to the standings.  Last season, Brian Burke dealt a pair of veteran defensemen in Tomas Kaberle and Francois Beauchemin near the trade deadline.  The return for these players included a pair of prospects, Jake Gardiner and Joe Colborne.

If asked, I don't believe the expectation from the organization would have been for them to be fulltime NHLers in the 2011-12 season and yet, 14 games into the Leafs' season, Gardiner has solidified his place on the team and Joe Colborne is leading the AHL in scoring with 19 points in 12 games.


The two year contract given to Tim Connolly is a pretty good indication that the team didn't think Colborne would be this good, this fast.

Elite Players' Break Out Seasons: Individual Data

Building on yesterday's post regarding players' breakout years, I've put together a couple more graphs so people can see some more individualized data.

If you're reading this blog, chances are you're a Leaf fan.  The key guys I wanted to look at were Kessel, Kadri, and Colborne.  Given this, I've provided data for all players who have exceeded 70 points in past three seasons who were drafted between the 3rd and the 20th pick overall in their respective drafts.

I've received a handful of requests asking to put some controls into the data set to try and mitigate some of the outliers.  When dealing with such a relatively small data set, I'm reluctant to pull out any of the numbers, so what I've done is provide all cases that fall within the defined ranges but presented each of them individually so you can draw your own conclusions (while of course offering some of my own).

When Do Elite Players Become Elite? A Look At Kessel, Colborne, and Kadri

Joe Colborne and Phil Kessel have LeafNation abuzz.  Phil Kessel has been tearing up the NHL and appears to have taken his game to an entirely different level this season scoring 15 points in 8 games.  Joe Colborne is doing much the same in the AHL, putting up 12 points in 6 games to start the year.

Part of what's so exciting about the emergence of these two players is their age.  With Kessel at 24 and Colborne at 21, these guys could be leading the Leafs for a long time.

Tempering this excitement in Kessel's case is the question of whether or not it can last.  He's been a streaky player in the past so the question with Phil is whether this is a step forward in his development or just another one of his infamous streaks.  In Colborne's case, I've heard people question whether or not he should be in the NHL at 21 if he were a true 'blue chip prospect'.

These questions, along with a couple of articles over at PPP by Steve Burtch (The Apprenticeship of Joe Colborne) and Bcapp (Nazem Kadri is a Bust... Or is He?) inspired me to take a look at when elite players develop and whether we should be excited (in the case of Phil Kessel and Joe Colborne) or concerned (in the case of Kadri).

Gardiner Impresses, Still Likely the Odd Man Out

A few years ago, Mike Babcock called Ville Leino the best player that he's ever sent back to the minors.  I'm starting to think that before long, Ron Wilson might be able to say the same of Jake Gardiner.

At 21 years old, the slick skating defender has been electric in the pre-season thus far.

Gardiner was acquired from Anaheim late last season along with Joffrey Lupul in exchange for Francois Beauchemin.  At the time, many pundits felt that Gardiner's Wisconsin teammate Justin Schultz had surpassed Gardiner on Anaheim's depth chart.  This, coupled with the emergence of Cam Fowler, made Gardiner expendable. 

Greg McKegg: The "Steal of the Draft"

The rumour mill hasn't been spinning quite as furiously around the Maple Leafs as one might expect given the team's position in the standings.  The Leafs sit nine points behind Atlanta (with two games in hand) heading into Monday night's tilt with Washington.  Not exactly the competitive squad that Leafs fans and management were expecting heading into the season.

Despite this, much of the talk in Leaf Land has been about improving from within.  With no first rounder this season, and our strongest trade chip possessing a no trade clause, it seems that what we've got now is what we have to work with.

Playing the Odds: The Leafs in Net

A goaltender in hockey is as important as a quarterback in football.  Without a good one, your team is a rudderless ship.  The Leafs have been drifting since the lockout.

Earlier in the week Brendan looked at some of the moves Brian Burke has made in acquiring goaltending prospects.  He pointed out that Burke had done well to pickup goaltending prospects at no cost particularly in view of the fact that he had already brought in the world's best goaltending coach in Francois Allaire.

He also noted that picking goaltending prospects is a bit of a crap shoot.  You could get Marc-Andre Fleury at number one overall or in the same year you could get Halak at 271.  Both are good goalies but the assets used to acquire them vary widely.

Given the apparent randomness that we see with goaltending prospects, having a girth of them is a positive.  But what exactly do we have?  Who are the comparables?  What, exactly, should Leaf fans be hoping for from these free assets?  We'll have a look at some numbers below.

One Thing Burke Got Right

As the offseason enters its twilight, Leaf fans are bracing for what may be another difficult season.  It looks like the 2010-11 Leafs will be icing a squad comprised of roughly four defensemen for every forward and goal production will once again fall on the shoulders of a select few.  This would be a fine arrangement for Toronto FC – one wonders if Brian Burke is confused about which MLSE team he is managing – but a hockey team usually requires more than one top-end forward if they hope to contend for a playoff spot.

But there is one bright spot in the Leafs strategy in this blogger’s opinion.  The acquisition of Jussi Rynnas is the latest example of an approach to developing a goaltending corps that I heartily support.  Rynnas is the third unsigned, undrafted goaltender that the Leafs have picked up in the past year (Gustavsson and Scrivens being the others).  Add fourth-round pick James Reimer to this list and I think we’re looking at an unheralded victory for the much-beleaguered Leafs GM.  Leaf fans should be applauding Burke on his strategy for a number of reasons:

 1) They were all ‘free’. I won’t belabour the Leafs’ well-documented lack of high draft picks and lack of depth at forward. What I will say is that a team in the Leafs’ position does well to pick up any promising player without having to give up anything in return.

 2) None of them are Vesa Toskala. Though I would sleep better at night if someone could produce a photograph of Rynnas and Toskala at the same event, just to make sure.

 3) Goaltending is a crap shoot.  When it comes to young goalies, nothing can be considered a ‘sure thing’.  Of course, many of the goalies taken in the top rounds live up to their billing - Luongo (4th overall), Brodeur (20th overall) and possibly even Fleury (1st overall) are good examples.  However, many more starters seemed to come out of nowhere, like Hiller (undrafted), Nabokov (219th overall), Lundqvist (205th overall), Miller (138th) and Kiprusoff (116th).  Add to that the fact that a lot of top-rated goalies are a bust - Rick DiPietro (1st), Brent Krahn (9th) and Peter Hamerlik (84th) were all selected before Henrik Lundqvist in 2000.  Actually, King Henrik wasn’t even the first SWEDISH goaltender selected, that honour went to Mikael Tellqvist (70th).  You never know which goalie will make the leap to stardom, but like in craps, you have a better chance of winning the more times you get to throw the dice.

 4) Francois Allaire.  The Leafs' goaltending coach arguably developed the modern style of goaltending while guiding two goalies (Roy and Giguere) to Stanley Cups. If anyone can help a young goalie maximize his potential, it’s this guy - give him enough chances to work some magic and I’m expecting at least one result worthy of David Blaine.

 5) Francois Allaire is not Vesa Toskala.

 So while the current Leafs squad might not be contending for Cup anytime soon, Burke did assemble a group that might just produce a goalie capable of taking us there.

Brian Burke vs. A Wheel of Brie

Prompted by Curt’s Brian Burke Backslap I have taken it upon myself to post this rebuttal. I do so on behalf of two vastly underrepresented groups on Maple Leafs blogs and message boards: Non-Leafs fans and Leafs Fans Who Recognize Brian Burke’s Incompetence.

Curt’s thesis, if I understood correctly, was that Brian Burke has improved the prospect depth of the organization since he took over in November 2008. Apart from some shady logic (the existence of a “Top 10” prospects in the organization doesn’t mean that those 10 prospects are necessarily good), maybe that’s true – heaven knows it couldn’t get any worse than it was then. Does that mean, however, that Brian Burke has done a good job? I say no. And to prove it, I’m going to stage the Ultimate Face-Off:












vs.

Well Done, Brian Burke: Leafs Prospect Update

Hockey's Future just updated the Toronto Maple Leafs' prospect page which is going to be the primary topic of this post.

Last week I wrote about the Leafs having too many pro-contracts - this week I'm going to look at the positives that have come with them.

Brian Burke has been criticized for looking too short term with the Leafs by bankrupting the future in the Phil Kessel trade. While hindsight suggests that that trade likely wont favour the Leafs long-term, it's tough to say that Brian Burke hasn't deepened the team's prospect pool.

Why I (over)Value Marcel Mueller

This post is inspired by a piece put together over at Yakov Mironov. If you're not already reading his stuff, I'd encourage you to check him out - he does good work. You'll find a link in the blogroll.

In his piece, Yakov talks about his favorite (or at least most overvalued) Leaf prospect, Jerry D'Amigo. BCP has always been fond of recognizing when we have what might be an overly high opinion of someone (Man Crush, Man Crush II) and with this in mind I'll begin talking about Marcel Mueller.

Marcel Mueller is a big forward at 6'3" and 220 lbs. Having just turned 22, he's also young and still developing. Last season in the DEL he picked up 56 points in 53 games making him the second leading scorer on his team. He was also +11 which ranked 4th on the team.

With Mueller, as with most undrafted European free agents, the development has occured recently and rapidly. Perhaps most exciting, Mueller picked up a total of four points at the World Championships and the Olympics on a German team that was far from offensively dynamic. Moreover, his strong showing against the highest level of competition suggests that he might be ready to make the jump to the NHL sooner rather than later.

Where should he play?

If Mueller were to make the jump to the NHL, I doubt he'd be a liability. He's a good two way player and doesn't appear to be prone to the big mistakes that you'll often see from rookies. Perhaps equally important, he doesn't try to do too much with the puck. He understands the cycle game and doesn't mind being the retriever on dump ins.

Marcel Mueller is a lot like...

In a way, he looks a lot like Luca Caputi. His size and position (LW) have led to frequent comparisons between the two players which makes sense as their skill sets are fairly similar as well. The trouble with the comparison is that they play the game differently. Caputi has shown some reluctance to use his size during his time as a Leaf and doesn't have the same prowess in the defensive zone as Mueller.

The better comparison, as I argued when the Leafs first picked him up, is Nikolai Kulemin. He has a little way to go until he gets to where Kulemin is but their styles are similar and their skill sets aren't all that different. Neither will blow you away with their speed or their shot but both of them are passable with each. They're solid two-way wingers that finish checks and win puck battles.

Where does Mueller fit in the lineup?

Burke has said that he expects Mueller to start the season in the AHL but that it's "up to him". I expect that at some point this season we see both Mueller and Kadri in the NHL which would ideally put Mueller on a third line with Colby Armstrong and Mikhail Grabovski. That's a third line I can get excited about.

So that's more or less why I really like Marcel Mueller. He doesn't have the top end potential that a Tyler Bozak does but he projects to be a decent second line player or a very good third liner. I expect he'll see some time on the Leafs this year and will likely even get some reps on the penalty kill. Can't wait to see how he does in camp and I hope he proves me right.