Watching Kessel’s Prime Years Fade Away…

Time is a funny thing. Maybe funny is the wrong word – you don’t laugh out loud at time. A better word may be peculiar. Time is peculiar. You spend your entire life being young, then one day you wake up to realize that, well, you aren’t young anymore.

I’m scared this is going to happen to Phil Kessel.

It’s not his fault; it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fault. No, they aren’t the reason he is getting older (we have nature to blame for that), but they are the ones squandering away what remains of his prime years. Sure, 26 doesn’t feel THAT old, but maybe it is. He turns 27 in early October and we know from existing research that players tend to peak in their mid-to-late twenties, with significant declines taking place from 29 onward. Kessel is just over two years away from 29.

Will he fall off of a metaphorical cliff at 29? No. It will, however, be reasonable to assume that his best years will be in the rearview mirror. There will always be exceptions to the well-established rules of aging, guys like Rob Brind'Amour who set up a cot in their gym and stay healthy and productive into their late thirties. For the most part, though, team’s need to prepare for their stars to decline post 30. Toronto seems to be taking the opposite approach, building their core towards a possible crescendo just as Kessel’s numbers start to dip.

I don’t mean to sound overly pessimistic, there are positives on this team. A core of Kadri, Nylander, JVR, Gardiner, Phaneuf, Rielly and Bernier sounds awfully nice, and it is. The issue is that half of those players are still two or three years away from being quality NHLers. Reinforcements are on the way, they just might not be coming fast enough.

Phaneuf is in a similar situation to Kessel, with his decline likely more imminent (if it hasn’t started to some degree already). He’ll be 32 or 33 years old when the team is (theoretically) in a position to compete. If he continues to skate 24 minutes a night against some of the toughest competition in the league then you have to wonder what will be left in 2017, 2018, and beyond.

There’s also the issue of unintended consequences. Signing Phil and Dion to long-term deals was essentially the only solution for Toronto a year ago. They were, and are, the team’s best forward and defenseman – they needed to stay. However, by the time this group is thinking about contention there is a real possibility that Kessel, and to a greater extent Phaneuf, are not worth their cap dollars. This could hamper the team when they actually have a reasonable chance of winning (there is an obvious irony in all of this).

Of course if the salary cap continues to rise and approaches $80 or $90 million in the near future maybe this all becomes moot. But it’s still a risk worth noting.

In an ideal world Toronto would be in a position to make the playoffs in the here and now. That was the idea behind adding players like Clarkson, Bolland, and Bernier a summer ago – improve significantly in the near-term and worry about the long-term, well, later. Unfortunately it hasn’t worked. Clarkson looks more and more like a DiPietro-esque anvil to the cap, Bolland left via an overpayment from Florida in free agency, and the jury is still out on Bernier as a cornerstone backstop.

Drafting Nylander was a step in a much needed direction. This is a prospect system devoid of high end offensive weapons, something Nylander will address in a major way. If Toronto finishes in the lottery again next season they’ll add another strong prospect that could be part of the emerging next generation.

All of this leads to the bitter-sweet juxtaposition Dave Nonis finds himself in. He needs to win soon in order to capitalize on Kessel’s run as one of the game’s five or ten best scorers. But his roster is full of talented youngsters who might be manning All-Star games in 2018. There isn’t an obvious answer to this conundrum outside of “win now” and then “win later”, too. That’s a lot easier said than done.

A lot can, and will, change over the coming two or three seasons. For the Leafs’ sake, I hope Kessel’s on-ice production isn’t one of them.

Darren Kennedy writes about hockey in a few places: BCP, Mckeen’s, and Dobber Hockey. You can follow him on twitter @fantasyhockeydk 

Supply, Demand, and Toronto’s Defence

I wasted most of my University years taking Philosophy and Science classes, meaning there wasn’t a ton of time left over to learn the principles of economics.

However, the most basic of all economic theories, and the one I have at least a rudimentary understanding of, is Supply and Demand. It plainly states that the value, or price of a particular item, will vary depending on fluctuations in both supply and demand.

For instance, if demand for a product skyrockets than there is the potential for a shortage to occur. A shortage results in a higher price point, since there is limited supply. Conversely, if the supply rises quickly enough the item will enter into what is called a surplus. In this case there is so much of an item available to everyone that its price decreases substantially.

Why am I boring you with economics terms you could have looked up in Wikipedia yourself?

Well, I think there is something here that can be applied to the Toronto Maple Leafs, specifically to the team’s defencemen.

Every season, especially around the trade deadline, I am inundated with report after report echoing the importance of the vaunted “puck moving defencemen”. The majority of TSN’s 12 hour trade deadline coverage will be split screens of Dreger, Duthie and McKenzie checking in on the availability of veteran puck moving blueliners around the league who could be that final piece of the puzzle.

All this brings us to the Maple Leafs, and the log jam that has been created on defence. With Mark Fraser now close to fully recovered from a knee injury the team will feature seven NHL caliber defencemen: Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Franson, Rielly, Fraser, Gardiner, and Ranger. You could say eight if you include John-Michael Liles and his $3.8 million dollar contract currently playing for the Marlies.

The term “puck moving” is a bit flexible and open to interpretation. For the sake of argument let’s identify Phaneuf, Franson, Rielly, and Gardiner as players that could be considered in that category.

Dion represents a much larger discussion and we’ll likely devote more than a few blog posts to his future. As captain and an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, Nonis will need to decide if he is worth upwards of $7 million dollars over five plus years.

Cody Franson is coming off of a fantastic 2012-13 season in which he finished with 29 points in 45 games. He’s off to another great start this year with 8 assists through the first 11 games. In addition, because none of the Leafs are ambidextrous (at least to my knowledge) he carries increased value as a right handed shot. I have a hard time believing the Leafs would consider moving him at this time.

Through process of elimination we are left with the two youngsters, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner. In a perfect world, one that sadly doesn’t yet exist, both of these guys would be given a spot on the team and Fraser and/or Ranger would spend time in the press box. But we know coach Randy Carlyle is a strong supporter of Mark Fraser and he’ll skate in the team’s third pairing most evenings.

At 19 and 23 years old I don’t think it is wise for the development of either Morgan or Jake to be sitting and watching hockey games every night. However, with the recent annoucnment that Rielly will not be returned to his junior club we know that this is a strong possibility. If their development is being put at risk then it behooves Nonis to at least consider trading one of them to shore up a need elsewhere.

I know some rumors have been bantered about to send Gardiner and Reimer to land a top six centermen. Personally, I just don’t see how the math or value will work out. Reimer is a solid goalie but how many teams with a top line centermen would be willing to send him away? Add to that the small cap hit of Reimer and Gardiner combined and the salaries wouldn't align. Reimer helps establish a depth in goal the Leafs haven’t had for half a decade; I’m happy to have him for now, at least until there is a better understanding of what Bernier is.  

The scenario that does seem plausible and helps to solve an organizational need is moving Gardiner for a top level center prospect. Outside of Frederik Gauthier and Greg Mckegg the Leafs don’t have a ton of center prospects in the pipeline. With all due respect to Gauthier and Mckegg, at this moment neither player projects as a top six forward in the near future.

What kind of deal would make sense?

I look back to the Zack Kassian and Cody Hodgson deal as a template Toronto could build around. Trading Gardiner to a team over indexed with forward prospects, but in need of the ever popular puck moving defencemen. This would help both teams address an area of weakness while also minimizing cap issues that would subvert a larger move. I don’t necessarily want to get into speculation on players to target since the list would be expansive. You can review the center prospects of all teams on Hockey Futures.

I absolutely love Jake Gardiner as a player. He’s capable of doing things on the ice that very few defencemen can replicate. At times during the Boston series last spring he was far and away the Leafs’ best player. Unfortunately, this may end up being a case of supply and demand where the surplus of Toronto defencemen necessitates a move. Let’s hope it’s one that helps the team take a positive step in its never ending quest to find a first line centerman.

Darren is a fantasy hockey writer who can’t escape his Maple Leaf roots. If you’re ever looking to kick around some trade ideas or want a second set of eyes on your team you can follow him @FantasyHockeyDK

Puck Handling: How Jonathan Bernier Can Help Toronto With More Than Just His Fists

On Sunday night there was bedlam at the ACC, with John Scott attempting to punch the face of Mr. Kessel, leading to 239 minutes of penalties and at least a couple of suspensions from the league.

Unfortunately the Leafs only dressed one of their three resident tough guys, that being goaltender Jonathan Bernier…

Ok, maybe he isn’t exactly an “enforcer” per se, but as it turns out our newest tender throws a pretty mean right hook.

The twitterverse was taken over by news of the brawl, with many comparing the goalie dust up to the unforgettable Potvin versus Hextall fight in 1996. While I wouldn't quite put the confrontation in that realm, it did provide us all with an excuse to watch this video again.

Those observing the fight live stood and cheered, loving a goalie tussle in the way one would love to witness two T-Rex in a boxing match. I imagine Nonis was in a corporate suite somewhere covering his eyes, as a broken wrist or dislocated shoulder from Bernier would have further complicated the teams cap woes and left them $2.9 million dollars in the press box.

Bernier was of course brought to Toronto not to fight others, but to fight for starting minutes with James Reimer. I’ll try to avoid going down the path of “was the trade necessary” given the team already had a capable number one, since that story has been covered quite a bit.

Instead I want to talk about what Bernier can do outside of his crease, specifically with his stick. A couple days ago I came across a great article from the Edmonton Journal on Martin Brodeur. The post looks at how Marty’s puck handling effects the flow of a game.

The author looks at a five game series between the Devils and Flyers, keeping track  of every time either Brodeur or Bryzgalov touches the puck. The results were very interesting. During only 5 games Brodeur made a “good pass” to a teammate 90 times, compared to Bryzgalov’s 15. When it came to clearing the puck to a less dangerous spot on the ice Brodeur had 32 successful occurrences, while Bryzgalov was 13. I would encourage you to read the full article, as it goes into quite a bit more detail.

So what does this mean for the Maple Leafs?

While for starters everything I have been able to find on Bernier says he is a fantastic puck handler. His comfort leaving his crease to stop a dump in, or an end a round is evident when you observe him playing.

Conversely, handling the puck has never been James Reimer’s greatest asset. He routinely looks a bit awkward outside his net and will make an effort to avoid playing pucks whenever possible. I don’t have data on how much this has or hasn’t impacted the Leafs defensively. However, anecdotally, I have witnessed a number of frantic scrambles in Toronto’s end as a direct result of poor decision making from Reimer with the puck.

If Bernier can improve this for the Leafs it could have a positive effect on their shot differential. I couldn’t find a definitive analysis on how much shot differential and Corsi is impacted by a strong goalie, but it stands to reason that if your tender clears the puck to safety the opposition will have the puck less often.

If the opposition is unable to gain possession of the puck on a fore-check, then they will conceivably have less shots on net. The common sense approach says this would be the case, but I’d be very interested to see a full study (if you have anything toss it up in the comments). NHL numbers also looked at the Journal article and did some work on this, but the results were a bit inconclusive.

For instance, in the Brodeur and Bryzgalov example Marty would routinely pass 15 to 20 pucks to his teammates, no doubt helping to them advance the play forward. On the other hand, Bryzgalov would make between 1 and 5 good passes per game.

I won’t pretend to know exactly what the difference is between Reimer and Bernier’s ability here, but it is clear a difference exists. If Bernier can utilize his stick handling and work cohesively with Leafs blueliners he could add a nice wrinkle to their defensive strategy.

For a team that was out shot 32 to 26  last season (2^nd worst in the NHL), it certainly wouldn't hurt.

Darren is editor of The Man Advantage, a fantasy hockey blog, and contributor to Blue Chip Prospects. You can follow him @TMA_Hockey_blog 

Return of the Winged Wheel - Comparing Toronto and Detroit at Key Positions

This summer the NHL finally got around to re-aligning their divisions. The goal was to put teams that are geographically connected in the same division and help lessen the number of arduous travel schedules.

One of the major beneficiaries of the new divisional structure is the Detroit Red Wings, who were long overdue for a spot in the Eastern Conference. They are now part of the Atlantic Division alongside the Bruins, Sabres, Panthers, Canadiens, Senators,  Lightning and your very own Toronto Maple Leafs.

The consensus here is that adding Detroit to the Eastern Conference will be a negative for teams like the Leafs, who will now have to play the perennial Stanley Cup contenders more regularly. I wanted to take a look at both teams rosters, at key positions, to see just how much of a difference there is on paper.

First Line Winger - Henrik Zetterberg vs. Phil Kessel

What Zetterberg has accomplished for the Red Wings over the last 10 years certainly pushes the needle in his direction. However, the comparison is for the 2013-14 season, not the pedigree Zetterberg has developed over the past decade

Henrik is coming off a fantastic 2012-13 season in which he posted a 85 point game pace, tying for 13th in the league. Zetterberg has been about as consistent an offensive player as you could hope for, never amassing less than 68 points since 2004 and breaking the 300 shot plateau 4 times in his career.

2 years ago I would have given a clear advantage to Detroit, but Kessel has managed to close the gap. Over the past two seasons he has asserted himself as one of the games preeminent wingers, finishing in the top 8 in scoring both years.

Phil's top end speed and acceleration is almost unmatched, and he has a wrist shot that haunts one-piece composite sticks everywhere (I wasn't meant to bend that way!). Henrik will turn 33 in October, while many players have maintained elite status into their mid thirties it is reasonable to expect a slight decline in his performance in the coming seasons.

Defensively I have always been unbelievably impressed with Zetterberg. He is considered by many to be one of the best two way forwards, with the Corsi rating to prove it (10.5 more shots for over 60 minutes). Keseel has shown glimpses of defensive responsibility, especially in the playoffs where he looked engaged in the Leafs end. I am willing to forgive Kessel on the defensive end, given that he is forced to tow Tyler Bozak up and down the ice.

Verdict - Impossible to render a verdict either way - Zetterberg's consistency and Kessel's emergence as a top 10 offensive player make it a toss up for me.

Top Line Center - Tyler Bozak versus Pavel Datsyuk

Some will argue the Leafs don't have a top line center, or that if we are forced to anoint one it would sooner be Nazem Kadri in before Tyler Bozak. I take the approach that if Randy Carlyle is allotting more ice time to Bozak than any other center, and he is skating beside the teams best winger, he is by definition the top line centerman.

I'll spare everyone the mental exercise of comparing these two. Datsyuk may be 35 but he is a superior player to Bozak in all aspects of the game, even when examining Bozak's beloved face-offs (Datysuk finished last year at 56.2%, Bozak at 52.7%)

Verdict - We could compare them again in 3,4 even 5 years, I don't see a scenario under which Datysuk isn't the more effective player. This highlights one of the glaring problems with the Leafs roster - their first line centerman is far less talented than the player he lines up against nearly every night. This creates mismatches and gives the opposition, Detroit, or whomever, a clear advantage to exploit.

Top Defenceman - Dion Phaneuf versus Niklas Kronwall

I like this comparison because both players have a similar style on the ice. Both Kronwall and Phaneuf (at least in his formative years) tend to play a more physical style of hockey, while also contributing offensively. During last years truncated season Niklas finished with 29 points and Dion ended with 28.

Phaneuf has been forced to augment his game a bit in recent years, with the coaching staff relying on him to play upwards of 25 minutes a night he can appear visibly tired at times. My opinion is that this has forced him to forgo jumping in on the offensive rush to conserve energy for his defensive responsibilities. I would greatly prefer to see him playing 21 or 22 minutes in a more offensive role, as opposed to lining up against the other teams most dangerous players.

Kronwall has been groomed as the heir apparent to Nicklas Lidstrom in Detroit, logging heavy minutes against some of the better players in the NHL (Quality of Competition Metric).

Both men were part of relatively successful power plays last year (around 18%, 14th and 15th in the league). I would argue that Phaneuf's one timer is a more potent weapon than anything Kronwall brings to the man advantage, although my observations of Kronwall have been limited to the playoffs.

Verdict - Two similar players, with Leafs boasting a slight advantage.

Goaltending - James Reimer / Johnathan Bernier versus Jimmy Howard

In 2013-14 Jimmy Howard posted stellar numbers across all categories, finishing with a 2.13 goals against average and .923 save percentage. Those numbers, along with a substantial extension from Ken Holland, have cemented him as Detroit's goalie of the future.

For the Leafs it's hard to compare someone directly to Howard, given that Reimer and Bernier are stuck in a pseudo tandem until one or the other wins the starting gig. Both goalies have the ability to outplay Howard in the right situation. Reimer's .924 save percentage last season was 8th in the NHL (among starters) and he was at times spectacular in the playoffs.

Bernier seems to carry a level of mystique and untapped potential that the other two may not have. Based partly on his entry draft pedigree (11th overall) and long being considered the best back up in the NHL.

Verdict - Another close position, I'll lean every so slightly towards Howard given his longer sample size and elite stats over the past two seasons.

Second Line Center - Nazem Kadri versus Stephen Weiss

The free agent signing of Stephen Weiss provides the Red Wings with depth at center they sorely needed after loosing Valtteri Filppula to the Lightning. Weiss has been a consistent, if unspectacular scoring center throughout his career in Florida. Finishing with over 42 every season since 2006, including a career high of 61 in 2008-2009. Part of me has always questioned Weiss because he played so many years on a poor team, posting numbers as a defacto top line player. Olli Jokinen was a prized asset during his time in Florida but has never been able to replicate that success in another uniform.

Toronto will have (hopefully have, please have, better have!) Nazem Kadri playing the second line center position, flanked by the likely duo of Joffrey Lupul and David Clarkson (assuming JVR plays on the first line).

Kadri lacks the resume of Weiss, but possess infinitely more offensive upside. With 44 point in 48 games last season Kadri displayed the kind of offensive wizardry that few in the NHL possess. His offensive talents are mitigated somewhat by defensive deficiencies and his slightly odd skating style. From what I have seen he may be an underrated defensive player - always working hard along the half wall and intercepting passes at times. He lacks the physicality to handle some of the gurthier (is that a word?) centerman in the league, but that could come with age and training.

Verdict - Advantage to Kadri and Leafs here. The upcoming season will be a telling one for Kadri, if he can build upon last years success he'll potentially be listed under the 'top line' centerman category in next years post.

Overall the Leafs have a lineup that seems capable of matching up with the Red Wings. There is no denying the success enjoyed Detroit's core, players like Zetterburg, Datysuk, Franzen, Kronwall, and now Alfredsson have proven themselves over a number of years. But this season's incarnation is similar to the one that looked mediocre throughout 2012-2013 before erupting for two fantastic playoff series with the Ducks and Hawks.

Toronto has players that are capable at most key positions, with the obvious exception of top line center (Dammit Bozak!). Over a 7 game playoff series I would likely still pick Detroit, but the gap certainly isn't as pronounced as it was over the past 3 or 4 years.

When it was announced the Red Wings were moving into the newly formed Atlantic division the prevailing opinion was that the Leafs now had to regularly contend with an NHL heavyweight. Looking closely at the two rosters I'm not convinced the Leafs are that far off, now if only we ca convince Borschevsky to give it one more year....

The Departed - How Losing Grabovski and MacArthur Will Force the Leafs to Think Differently

The departure of Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur this offseason wasn't exactly unexpected. We knew that Grabovski’s style of play wasn't meshing well with Randy Carlyle’s punch people in the face first, figure out how to generate shots second approach. Meanwhile, MacArthur had found himself a healthy scratch during key games near the end of the season and into the playoffs. Even though we sort of saw these moves on the horizon, it has done little to soften the blow that losing these two has leveled on the teams top 9 forward group.

Carlyle has prided himself on being a “defensive coach”- wielding a complex system that keeps shots to the outside therefore minimizing high quality scoring chances. We can debate the merits of this system another day, knowing that research tends to indicate that shot quality evens out over time and shot volume is the best indicator of future success.

Before Carlyle, Ron Wilson also attempted to bring defensive responsibility to the Leafs, specifically on the penalty kill where he was known as a “guru” of sorts. Of course the Leafs had one of the most atrocious penalty killing units in the league (Finished last in PK% in both 2008-09 and 2009-10).

Despite a focus on defence the Leafs have actually managed to have one of the better offensive groups over the past 2 years. Last season the team averaged 3.02 goals per game, landing them 6^th in the league. In 2011-12 they were a respectable 10^th with 2.77 per game.

In watching those 2 Leafs teams one of their key attributes has been forward depth up and down the lineup. Kessel and Lupul have certainly been fantastic over that time, but contributions from the likes of Kulemin, Kadri, Grabovski, MacArthur, and Bozak have played a role in the team’s offensive success.

In 2011-12 Grabovski finished 3^rd on the club in scoring with 51 points, with MacArthur finishing 6^th, with 43 points. There is no doubt that in last year’s truncated season both players were counted on less offensively, ending the year 8^th and 11^th in scoring respectively. Without these two and the flexibility they afforded the coaching staff I am unsure if the team will be able to generate offence consistently throughout the forward group.

New Leafs forwards David Clarkson and Dave Bolland will help mitigate some of the lost production, but not all of it. Clarkson and Bolland have each broken the 40 point plateau once in their NHL careers. While they are useful players in their own right, they are far from offensive dynamos.

Now it’s not all bad -  perhaps the Leafs can embrace their new situation and deploy two lines designed purely for scoring. Line combinations won’t be final for a few weeks but I would expect the top 9 to look something like this:

Kessel – Bozak – Lupul

JVR – Kadri – Clarkson

McClement – Bolland - Kulemin  

In this case we would see McClement switching to the wing, allowing Bolland to play his natural position of center. The new 3^rd line would feature three players known for their defensive capabilities. Kulemin's 30 goal season is more and more becoming a distant memory and McClement has consistently been an 8 to 12 goal scorer. While some have lauded Dave Bolland's offensive potential, a conversation PPP had with Chicago bloggers has me thinking his offensive contributions will be limited.

Ideally Carlyle would feed his 3^rd line absurdly brutal minutes. Lining up against tough competition and starting the majority of their shifts in the defensive zone. Essentially, these 3 guys wouldn’t skate in the offensive zone unless there was a commercial break and they were stretching their legs. (Free fantasy hockey advice: Don’t draft any of them!)

The top 2 lines would need to be used in as many goal scoring positions as possible. Offensive zone start percentages for these lines should be above 50%. Last season, both Kessel and Lupul had O-zone starting percentages under 50% (Behind the Net), which is a bit of a head scratcher for me. Neither of them are Selke candidates and should be used accordingly. They are elite offensive players and their primary focus is to produce goals (hockey being the goal scoring competition that it is).

A great example is how Alain Vigneault utilized Daniel and Henrik Sedin in Vancouver last season. Both players started well over 60% of their shifts in the offensive zone. The tougher, defensive zone starts were reserved for players like Ryan Kesler, David Booth and Christopher Higgins.

Carlyle and his coaching staff may need to take a page from Vancouver’s playbook and provide more scoring opportunities to their top 6 forwards. In years past the Leafs’ forward depth allowed for more balanced zone starts and overall deployment. However, the departure of Grabovksi and MacArthur has changed dynamic of this group – hopefully the coaching strategy reflects this.  

Thoughts on Bernier, the Leafs' Cap Woes and.... Goldberg?

We are almost 2 months into the Jonathan Bernier era in Toronto (if we can in fact call it an ‘era’) and opinions remain mixed over whether he should have ever arrived.

Fans' thoughts around Bernier and the trade that brought him here seem to fall in line with four primary themes.

1) James Reimer's play last year did not warrant expending assets on another goalie. This is, to some extent, very true. Reimer posted some of best numbers of his career, finishing with an even strength save percentage of .924 and goals against average of 2.46.  At 25 years of age it is entirely possible Reimer is arriving as a top 10-15 goalie in the NHL. And since you can only ice one goalie at a time, Bernier represents a redundancy. That is unless the Leafs are planning to transition one of the two netminders into a forward - anecdotal evidence indicates this would be pretty awesome. 

2) Reimer has never been healthy during a full, 82 game season, forcing management to add a potential starting goalie. This again, is a valid argument. Reimer has started 43%, 42%, and 65% of Leafs games over the past 3 seasons. Yes, a lot of his injury woes can be traced back to the wayward Gionta elbow and subsequent concussion symptoms, but he still hasn’t been consistently healthy. After watching Ben Scrivens play last year many fans (myself included) were not comfortable with him as a defacto starter should something have happened to Riemer.

"$40 million in this bag right now and nobody gets hurt, I mean it!" - Tyler Bozak

When the NHL fought to keep player contracts to fewer than 8 years (7 for UFAs leaving for a different team) I don’t imagine they expected Tyler Bozak to be one of the players discussing such a deal. 

A friend asked how I felt about the contract demands and whether the Leafs should consider acquiescing to Mr. Bozak. My response is probably best summed up by Michael Scott:

It has been hard not to laugh a bit the last couple days at the expense of the Leafs soon-to-be former number one centerman. Asking for 5 million dollars a season for 8 years is almost inconceivable for a player who is considered among most hockey pundits to be best served as a third liner.

The proposed contract really only makes sense when we break it down into sub parts. Had he asked for 8 years at 1.75 million we could have understood his wanting long term financial security in lieu of a big pay day. Had Bozak requested 10 million a year over 2 seasons we could see his wanting to cash in on a short term deal - thereby forcing him to earn his next contract.

Neither seems to be the case. And with the recent acquisition of Dave Bolland is seems rather unlikely that Tyler Bozak has any leverage in this negotiation. The Leafs are capable of starting next season with Kadri – Grabovski – Bolland – McClement as the 4 players down the middle. There isn't a place for Bozak on this team anymore, and his absurd contract demands seem to be the explanation point on what was already going to be an unworkable situation.

It’s interesting to reflect on the Bolland trade now in the context of Tyler Bozak. Yes, it’s nice to no longer be handcuffed by our lack of center depth, allowing the team to dismiss Bozak's demands and finally cease the never-ending quest to anoint him a first line center. Conversely, the acquisition of Bolland has created a log jam of 2^nd and 3^rd line centers on a team that desperately needed someone to play in the top six.

Rumors have circulated this week that the signing of Toronto native David Clarkson is all but complete once the free agency period opens later this week. It’s difficult to argue with Clarkson’s production over the past 2 seasons, amassing 30 goals in 2012-13 and 15 in this ears truncated campaign. He has managed to morph his game from that of a prototypical 3^rd line grinder into a useful player that can play across an entire lineup.

The potential issue lies in committing significant money and term to a player that is approaching 30 and plays a style of game that hasn't historically been conducive with aging. It is possible that Nonis turned over every stone in search of a centerman this off season and simply failed to land anyone of significance. As a substitute he addressed the need via trade with a Chicago team desperate to stay under the cap and through drafting the hulking six foot five Frederik Gauthier 21^st in the draft.

Part of me wanted  Nonis to bring in a Vincent Lecavalier or one of the pending 2014-15 free agents in Patrick Marleau or Joe Thornton. However, I can only imagine the price either Shark would have commanded, and the contract signed by Lecavalier is two years too long for a player in his mid 30s.

If Nonis is successful in adding Clarkson and perhaps a 2^nd or 3^rd pairing defensemen (Scuderi, Ference…etc) than he will have addressed many of the teams needs, at least in earnest. Goaltending depth was an issue – he brought in Bernier. Bolland, to a degree, addresses the need down the middle. Clarkson, despite some concerns around his age and wear, would be a significant improvement to the team’s top 9 forwards. An additional top 4 defenseman would help alleviate some of the onerous minutes Dion Phaneuf has been forced to consume the past two seasons. Of course neither Clarkson nor a defenseman has transpired yet, but if you believe any of the news circulating this week it’s hard to think Nonis will stand pat in free agency, especially given the cap flexibility the team still possesses.

The old cliché says that a rising tide raises all boats. With some tinkering in a number of places Dave Nonis is working diligently to improve multiple facets of the roster, bit by bit. One of the outcomes of these improvements may be the departure of Tyler Bozak and his faceoff wizardry (or slightly above average-dry). And I’m quite alright with that.

A Burgeoning X-Factor: Jake Gardiner

I'm not much of football fan. I'll watch the sports centre highlights and what not, but it's rarely my first choice for TV viewing these days. I understand the basic fundamentals of the sport and generally how the points are accrued, the difference between on field positions, and the varying types of penalties (except for holding, which appears to occur on every play of every game).

In the fall of 2004, while not a fan of football or the NFL, I became an ardent supporter of Kanas City Cheifs wide receiver Dante Hall, commonly known to many as the 'X-Factor'. For uninitiated Dante Hall was the leagues preeminent kick off and punt return specialist between 2003 and 2007.

He was an absolute joy to watch, special teams plays become games within the game, complete spectacles to behold. At any given moment Hall could zig, or zag, or some combination of both, while bounding towards the oppositions end zone.  I was flat out mesmerized, that feeling of aw and anticipation every time he was on the field is something I'll never forget. After watching nearly all 16 Chiefs regular season games that season I can't recall the name of a single player outside of Hall, but I can remember vividly how I felt.

While watching Jake Gardiner and the Maple Leafs in Game five on Friday night I found myself reminiscing about Dante Hall. That feeling of imagination and expectation is something that Gardiner's play conjured up in me during the game. Much like Dante's ability to completely transform the momentum of a football game Gardiner seemed almost omnipresent in Friday's game.

I've tried to watch the 22 year old blueliner closely throughout the series, to better understand  both his rave reviews as an offensive catalyst and his limitations defensively.

First off, his defence. Yes, it could be better. But before we label him an all round poor defender it's important to understand no defenseman is all things in all situations. At times throughout the series Gardiner has displayed splendid composure in the defensive end, maintaining his body position against the significant girth of players like Lucic, Horton, and Thornton. The root of many pundits criticism is that he can be prone to poor decision making. This has manifested itself at times in the form of bad pass, the wrong choice for outlet of the puck, or failing to clear the puck from the defensive zone. The good news, for fans, is that these limitations appear more mental than physical. Decision making is something that can be worked with the coaching staff and through on ice instruction and video review. With only 90 total games of NHL experience it's fair to say that he will continue to learn and the nuances of the pro game and hopefully minimize those errors.

In the offensive zone, Gardiner has shown at both the AHL and NHL level, that he could be something special. Last year, as a rookie with the Maple Leafs he amassed 30 points (7 goals, 23 assists) in 75 games. This year, while playing with the Marlies throughout the lockout, he had 31 points (10 goals, 21 assists) in 43 games.

Over the past 2 games Gardiner has shown a Neidermyerian (this may not be a word) ability to drive a teams offense from the back end. Judging from his ice time during that time, 24:05 and 27:45, Randy Carlyle has been warming to his style of play.  He's made a number of slick outlet passes from within the Leafs zone to a streaking forward on Boston's side of center. Allowing players like Kessel and Lupul to maintain their momentum and enter the zone with speed.

When carrying the puck himself, Gardiner has proven to be devastatingly elusive to the Bruins. His skating stride and lateral agility forces the opposition to give him space, lest they be beaten to either side. When Jake possess the puck in the Leafs zone you can see how difficult it is for Bruins forwards to press him. He will routinely look up ice, insinuating a pass, only to turn, or pivot, leaving the defender off balance. If you look closely you can see how well Gardiner uses his shoulders to mask his intentions, dipping them to either side to ward off defenders and confuse them as to his intentions.

With the possible exception of Phaneuf the Maple Leafs defensive corps doesn't typically carry the puck through the neutral zone to generate an attack. Choosing to instead dump the puck in along the boards, or pass off to forwards. Gardiner, however, routinely takes the puck into the zone, thus creating odd man rushes and generating possible scoring chances. He has done a great job of finding the right player at the right time with deft passes upon entering the attacking zone.

The challenge for the coaching staff moving forward is to help Gardiner blend his offensive risk taking with his responsibilities as a defenseman. The most successful example for Gardiner to emulate today is Ottawa's Erik Karlsson. Another player with whom fans have taken umbrage in the past for his lack luster defensive play.  Over the last 2 seasons Karlsson has successfully maintained his offensive flair without compromising the teams defensive needs.

I by no means believe that Garinder has become "must see TV" around the NHL. Dante Hall, during his stretch of dominance, was a star across the entire NFL. But what we have witnessed from Jake this post season, that feeling I've gotten when he has the puck, you can't help but wonder what he could become in the future.

The Maple Leafs success or failure on Sunday night will hinge on a number of factors. But the one that most excites me, the one I'll be watching most astutely, it's number 51, Mr. Gardiner.

Go Leafs Go!

The Leafs Hybrid Approach to Beating the Bruins – Using Speed and Pugnacity

At one time or another in our lives, most likely during adolescence, we’ve all experienced what it’s like to be bullied. This bullying can range from simple teasing, a swirly in a nearby toilet or something more egregiously bad.


What amazes me about bullying is the strategy sometimes employed by parents in trying to curtail the bullying. The answer, in many cases is “If he hits you, stand up for yourself and hit him back – he’ll leave you alone after that”

This I never quite understood. In most cases (at least from what I have seen) the bully tends to be a significantly stronger or meaner kid than the one suffering the bullying. Which means if the smaller victim were to punch the larger aggressor in the nose the odds are he’s going to get walloped pretty hard back. Suffice to say we as a society need to institute better methods of addressing bullying, but since this is a hockey blog we’ll park the social commentary for now.

We all understood that physical intimidation and to a degree, on ice bullying, were going to play a role in the Leafs-Bruins series. For the past 3 or 4 years the bruins have been, in the opinion of many, the biggest, nastiest, meanest team in the NHL. This is born in large part from their roster containing both Zdeno Chara and Milian Lucic, who are able to do a bit of everything on the ice.

In game #1 the Leafs players attempted to punch the Bruins in the nose, metaphorically and a couple of times literally. The Bruins played a physical game and Leafs tried to match them, finishing every check and engaging in every possible post whistle scrum. In one instance Cody Franson abandoned his position as the lone remaining defender to throw a big hit, leading to a Boston goal.

Manufacturing Goals in the Post-Season – The Power Play

This week will mark the first playoff appearance by the Maple Leafs in nearly 10 years. While the act of simply extending the season past April has many proclaiming this year a success, there’s no doubt that fans would also enjoy a playoff round win as the proverbial cherry on top of any already thrilling year.

After reading a number of articles over the last week it appears the Leafs need a myriad of different tools in order to win in the postseason, chief among them: confidence, momentum, toughness, focus, enthusiasm, gumption, quick-starts, effort, mental fortitude, and concentration.

While those things are critical ingredients for any Hollywood portrayal of a sporting event, the winner of a hockey game is only 50% of the time the team that spews the greatest number of platitudes. The winner, almost without exception, is the team that manages to score the most goals. As hockey, at it’s very core, has always been, and remains, a goal scoring competition.

The website quanthockey.com provides a chart (shown below) that compares the average number of goals per game in an NHL regular versus post season game. Throughout nearly the entire history of the league goal scoring has seen a decrease going into the playoffs. There are some exceptions, most notably in the 1950s where scoring seemed to increase in the post season. However, during the modern era of the league goals seem to be scored less frequently when the games matter most.

The Shootout and Sample Sizes: Addressing the Leafs' Shootout Woes

The Leafs lost on Wednesday night to the New York Rangers in the shootout, dropping their shootout record to 0 wins and 5 losses on the season. The players are collectively 3 for 24 on shootout attemps for a 12 percent success rate – 2nd worst in the NHL. Something must be done! We need to figure out a way to fix the team’s shootout woes lest we be forever doomed to leave with only one point in the vaunted 3 point games!

Would the Penguins trade us Jussi Jokinen? Is the trade deadline already passed? Damn. What about Jason Allison, is he still skating with those cement laced boots that prevent him from skating from the center ice line to the goal? Gosh darn. What about Sundin or Mogilny? Surely in their early 40s they still have some finesse and could be used as a “shootout specialist” if called upon.

Ok...deep breaths, everyone. Long, deep breaths --especially you Nick Kypreos-- the sky is not falling and the Leafs are not necessarily bad at shootouts.

Over the past week or so the mainstream media has been harping on the Leafs lack of shootout success this season. They’ve layered on statistic after statistic, showcasing the abysmal shootout percentages of all our forward corps. All 3 of the team’s shootout goals have been scored by Tyler Bozak, with the rest of the team sitting at a combined 0 for 21.

As a result of all this media attention and my inability to escape the mainstream media (try as I might) I have spent some considerable time thinking about the shootout. The way I see it there are two basic things we want to know:

1. Are the Leafs forwards good, bad, or average at scoring in the shootout?

2. If we are in fact incapable of scoring goals, what steps do we then take to become good at it?

On the Playoffs and John Michael Liles Future in Toronto

We seem to be stuck in a sort of Leafs fan limbo these days. Ever so close to mathematically clinching a playoff spot, butt wary of making any official proclamations given the 10-year hiatus. The team currently sits 5^th in the East with 49 points through 40 games; staring down a likely first round matchup with either Boston or Montreal.

Well, I’m going to say it – the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to the playoffs and there is no such thing as jinxes.

Ok, ok! To make sure I’m not struck down by some wayward bolt of lightning in the coming days I’ll hedge it a bit – there is a reasonable if not probable expectation that the Leafs will make the playoffs this season.  Better?

These playoffs will have significant ramifications for the Leafs not only this year, but on their actions or lack thereof in the summer. For fans, there is no doubt that a playoff run of any length will be a moment of pure ecstasy, allowing us to collectively unleash 10 years of pent up Leaf fandom. For the team however, the playoffs will represent a final opportunity for Nonis and the front office to evaluate the roster and decide what changes, if any, will be made in the offseason.

This summer the Leafs have the following players as either a UFA or RFA.

UFAs: Clarke McArthur, Tyler Bozak, Colton Orr, Ryan O’Byrne, Mike Kostka

RFAs: Cody Franson, Mark Fraser, Carl Gunnarsson, Leo Komarov, Joe Colborne, Frazer McLaren, Nazem Kadri

Reviewing the names above it’s clear that this offseason could bring about a number of changes to the roster. Interestingly, the player that most intrigues me is one not listed above, that being John Michael Liles. His play could be the catalyst for a number of changes this offseason and directly impact some of the players listed above.

JML played hockey at Michigan State University for 4 years before signing on with the Colorado Avalanche AHL affiliate Hershey Bears in 2002. He played the 2003-04 season in the NHL with Avalanche amassing 34 points in 79 games as a rookie. Over his first 5 seasons in the league he scored over 10 goals 4 times and registered north of 39 points on three occasions.  Expectations were high when arrived when Toronto traded a 2^nd round pick to acquire Liles in June of 2011, as he was coming off o 46 point campaign and carried a reputation as one of the games better offensive blueliners.  

Liles' time with the Maple Leafs has been somewhat turbulent, marred by both inconsistent play and time spent in the infirmary. Last year, he registered 7 goals and 20 assists in an injury shortened 66 game season. Brian Burke rewarded him for his strong play midway through the 2011-12 season with a new 4 year, 15.5 million dollar contract. The contract received mixed reviews, while the cap hit of 3.875 is manageable, the term of 4 years for a player 32 years of age raised questions. Since signing the contract, Liles suffered through a concussion at the end of the last season and spent a string of games alongside Mike Komisarek as a healthy scratch this year.

Since re-entering the lineup Liles has shown signs of life, displaying the offensive creativity and puck moving acumen that he was known for in Colorado. Over the past 6 games he has registered a goal and 3 assists, despite seeing somewhat limited ice time in the team's 3^rd defensive pairing. At many times during games he is jumping into the offensive zone and helping to create odd man rushes. In the playoffs, when goal scoring typically sees a decline due to tighter checking, having your defence generate offensive chances will be critical. Additionally, he has made a number of sublime passes while on the attack, making the backhand spin-o-rama pass a regular part of his repertoire.

The questions surrounding Liles seem to center less on his physical ability, which appears to still be intact, and more around how Randy Carlyle intends to use him. If Randy is using Liles as the 4^th or 5^th defenseman, seeing some time on the 2^nd power play unit, then his $3.8 million dollar cap hit can be managed. However, if Carlyle sees Liles as more of 6^th defenseman who spends some time in the press box as a healthy scratch then the contract could be detrimental over the next 3 years.

Adding to the complexity of the Liles situation is the future of Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly. There is the potential that one, or both, could be skating in the NHL next season, rendering a number of the skills possessed by Liles redundant. While you can never have too many offensive puck moving defenseman on your roster, Carlyle and Nonis have proven to favour having an injection of size and truculence on the back end.  

Which brings us back to this year’s probable playoff run and what it means to JML. Should Liles continue his strong play and assert himself as an integral piece of defence it will provide Nonis with a number of options. He can decide to keep Liles, perhaps allowing Cody Franson to leave as a RFA and exploring trade options for the highly regarded Gardiner for a potential centerman or upgrade elsewhere. Now I’m not recommending the team trade Gardiner, merely pointing out it would be an option. However, should Liles falter, or fall further out of favor with the coaching staff; Nonis may work to ship Liles out in the offseason. JML’s contract isn’t necessary ideal, but it’s not onerous to the point of being unmoveable. Teams like Detroit and even the Avalanche have been rumored to need a solid puck moving defenseman and Liles may be a player they could use.

As the team closes in on the playoffs I don’t expect fans to be thinking about next season and beyond, as the thrill of a post season push will certainly be riveting. However, for the MLSE front office the playoffs look to be a blend of emotion and strategic planning as players like Liles audition for future roles.

A Darwinian Look at Phil Kessel & The Kovalchuk Model of Star Evolution

It’s no secret that the Leafs have been struggling lately, losing five straight with two coming in overtime. There are a number of culpable parties, sharing the blame for the poor showings;  Randy Carlyle’s refusal to call up Jake Gardiner, Mikhail Grabovski’s inability to produce offensively while buried in the defensive zone, uneven goaltending, and the lack of goals from Phil Kessel.

It’s likely that all of the above are contributing factors in the lack of wins, but where I disagree with the standard rationale is on why Phil Kessel has been disappointing. Recording 30 or more goals in 4 straight seasons and coming off of a 37 goal 2011-12 has made Kessel’s current 82 game pace of 28 goals inadequate to some.

Since becoming a Maple Leaf Kessel has repeatedly been labeled as a ’40 goal scorer’, based largely on his potential to do so, since he has never in fact scored 40 goals in a single season. As a result, he seems to be unfairly judged against a standard he has never actually achieved. Furthermore, he seems to be graded along a single axis, in one category (that being goals) when there is so much more a player of his calibre can contribute to a team. Phil Kessel is most certainly a sniper in the truest form, but speed and latent playmaking ability give him the tools to perhaps be more.

As a possible case study I’d like to examine the transformation of Ilya Kovalchuk. Much like Kessel, he was known primarily as a goal scorer in his early years with the Atlanta Thrashers. Kovalchuk scored 29 times in his rookie campaign and went on to amass an 6 straight seasons of 40+ goals – impressive. Not quite as awe inspiring was his Augusta-worthy plus/minus over that time, recording a -19,-24,-10, -6, -2, -12 and -12 over the same stretch. Granted, the Thrashers weren’t all that good during his tenure, so we can forgive him the plus/minus. However, it’s clear no Selke trophies were coming his way.

Phil Kessel and the Ryan Getzlaf Contract - A Ripple Effect

On Friday March 8^th, the Anaheim Ducks signed a contract extension with their star center, Ryan Getzlaf. The deal amounts to $66 million over 8 years, making the 27-year old one of the highest earning players in the NHL, pulling in $8.25 million a season. While the agreement quite obviously impacts the Ducks, it will also have a ripple effect throughout the league as teams, like the Maple Leafs, try to navigate the waters of the new CBA.

The Leafs next year will be faced with the difficult proposition of what to do with Phil Kessel. Much like Ryan Getzlaf, Kessel will be a UFA at the end of next season and on the edge of what many believe will be his most productive hockey-playing years. The contracts of Marian Gaborik, Rick Nash, Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise have demonstrated the significant investment required to keep a player entering free agency in their mid to late 20s – close to their maximum value.

The difference between the players above and the deal struck in Anaheim is how the new CBA has forced teams to re-think superstar contracts. No longer able to sign players to heavily front loaded dollars that tapper in the late going, thereby maintaining a manageable annual cap-hit. Today’s GMs must now impress stars with the promise of an 8^th year (opposing teams can only offer up to 7) or the allure of winning a Stanley Cup.

Optimus Reim Showing Off Some Autobotian Heroics in 2013

The most pleasant surprise of the 2013 Maple Leafs season has undoubtedly been the consistent and exceptional play of James Reimer and the perfectly adequate backup performance of Ben Scrivens. The steadying performances of both goalies has been one of the key reasons they team currently sits 5th in the Eastern Conference, and has all but completely silenced the whispers surrounding Roberto Luongo in Toronto.

Ben Scrivens, the AHL's reigning Harry Holmes Memorial Award (lowest goals allowed in a minimum of 25 games) winner has been more than adequate, and despite that, Randy Carlyle is justifiably leaning towards James Reimer when he's healthy.

Reimer’s statistics thus far have been reminiscent of his numbers during the 2010-11 season when he posted a 2.60 GAA and .921 save percentage with a 20-10-5 record. The wayward Brian Gionta elbow put him off track for most of last season, side lined with a concussion. However, his play this year has stoked the fire once again on talks that he has the skill set to succeed as a number one goalie in the NHL.

Taking a look at two key measures for goalies we can see he is in some lofty company, in line with some of the league’s best.

Spring Shopping List: A 1st Line Center

Somewhere in California, with his tie slightly undone (just enough to make you ask why he bothers wearing it in the first place) Brian Burke is smirking at the Leafs success.

The team seems to be a spitting image of the one Burke hoped to create 4 years ago. A nice mix of scoring and finesse on the top 2 lines with tenacious checkers and men quick to drop their gloves in the bottom six.

The goaltending has moved from league worst to the top third of the league. The defense, while imperfect, has been strong enough that Carlyle has kept Jake Gardiner, once thrust into the throngs of an NHL season, out of the NHL lineup and unsure as to where he will even slot in. A good problem to have if you’re Dave Nonis.

Alas, one remaining issue plagues the team and its roster – that of the never-ending search for player capable of playing 1^st line center minutes. The hole left by Mats Sundin has proven to be deeper than many fans were willing to admit. It’s been temporarily filled by the likes of Matt Stajan, Nik Antropov, Tim Connolly, and most recently by Tyler Bozak.

Rumours have circulated for quite some time over replacements that could be signed or traded for to stabilize the position. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are both unrestricted free agents this summer and the speculation is that Anaheim may only be able to retain the services of one. Both will be looking for deals north of 7 million dollars per year for an extended time. Getzlaf represents the prototypical 1^st line center that can play in all situations and would certainly end all questions about the position in the foreseeable future. However, the free agent market can be extremely fickle, and placing the team’s future in the hands of pending UFAs can be dangerous.

Early Answers With The Toronto Maple Leafs

6 games into the sprint that is the NHL’s lockout shortened regular season and we’re left with number of questions and very few answers. For example, when did Patrick Marleau start leaping tall buildings in a single bound and where does he hide his cape? How is Martin St Louis playing the best hockey of his career as he nears 38 years of age? And what has happened to the Philadelphia offense? (Hint: It wears number 68 and moved to Dallas).

As it relates to the Maple Leafs, not a whole lot is known at this point. Sitting with 3 wins and 3 losses the team has shown some glimpses of being a potential playoff team, while also demonstrating defensive lapses in line with their lottery pick of a year ago. Below are some of what we know and don't know as the early season marches on.

What we know

1.       Nazem Kadri is not going back to the AHL. With an impressive 6 points in 6 games (3G, 3A) Kadri is flashing some of the offensive potential that made him the 7^th overall draft pick in 2009. Nazem has that rare ability to slow down the pace of a game when he’s in possession of the puck, seemingly having an extra half second of decision making. It’s the type of offensive imagination and flair that fans have always pined for in Tyler Bozak as a first line center. If Kadri can continue his growth this season, you have to believe he’ll have a real opportunity to crack the first line heading into the 2013-14 season.

2.       Nikolai Kulemin has not regained his scoring touch. In 2010-11 Kulemin recorded a career best 30 goals and 27 assists. Last year he plummeted to only 7 goals, leaving many pundits to wonder what exactly happened to the well-rounded top 6 forward they had come to know. During the lockout Kulemin played alongside reigning Hart and Art Ross trophy winner Evgeni Malkin for Metallurg of the KHL, registering 38 points in 36 games. The expectation being that Kulemin could carry over some of this offensive momentum and reaffirm his position in the Leafs top 6. With zero goals through 6 games (he does have 5 assists) it appears his NHL scoring slump has carried forward to this season. He still brings accountability and effort to the defensive end, but on a team missing Joffrey Lupul and desperately in need of consistent scorers it remains to be seen if Kulemin can get back to form.

Kessel, Lupul, And a Scientific Look At The Elusive 'Prime' Years

Everyone ages.

We all grow from infants to teenagers to adults and finish, if we're lucky enough to get there, as a member of the privileged elderly class enjoying a significant discount at all major restaurants. Throughout that process our bodies physical and athletic abilities develop and grow, eventually maximizing at a specific point in time commonly known as our “prime”.

In sports, all teams look to maximize the number of players on their roster that are currently enjoying their prime athletic years; conversely minimizing the number of players that are still developing and the ones that are physically declining leading towards inevitable retirement.

For the Maple Leafs, the contracts of Joffrey Lupul and Phil Kessel will be expiring at the end of 2013, forcing management to consider where they fall on the spectrum of an athlete’s climb and decline. The unrestricted free agent crop of 2013 (including Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry) will also tempt the team to hand out significant money and term to star players.

The problem is, we can’t predict exactly when a player is at his best; nor when he will begin the inevitable decline. Each player is different and their individual development curve could differ from that of their peers. The use of statistical data can further muddy the waters, since numbers like goals, assists, power play points...etc can often be a result of opportunity, linemates, team situations, and other statistical noise.

Luxury Tax, Cost Flexibility, and Exploiting the Leafs' Monetary Advantage

The Pittsburgh Pirates are bad at baseball.

The term ‘bad’ is relative, of course. They would probably be a darn good softball team at your local diamond and might even tear up AA ball. However, when compared to their peers in Major League Baseball they don’t hit, pitch, or field baseballs all that well. As a result they have gone 20 years, since 1992, without making it into the post season.

To put that in perspective for a Leafs fan that is the equivalent of waiting until 2024 at least before witnessing playoff hockey (Phil Kessel would be 36).

The Pittsburgh Pirates turn a profit.

According to a 2010 ESPN article the Pirates made over $14 million in 2008 and over $13 million in 2007, all after taxes. They accomplished this by being prudent with all player costs and avoiding long term contracts to star players.

Herein lies the crux of what Donald Fehr, one of the founding fathers of the modern baseball luxury tax system, may be trying to implement in the NHL. Gary Bettman and the NHL want parity; a league where anyone can make the playoffs or win the Stanley Cup each year. In an ideal world, yes, we all want parity. You want a league where all teams have a real chance to win, but to do that in a league that as both a business and a sport you need to have one of or both of the following:

1. Strong revenue sharing

2. A lucrative TV contract.

The NHL has neither.

Short Seasons And Playoff Chances

We were sitting at the starting line on a cool autumn day in 2001, bristling with anticipation. The school board was holding its annual cross country running race for boys in grades 7 and 8. A gruelling 8-kilometre run across undulating terrain littered with 45 degree hills and muddied straightaways, and I’m lined up right next to Jimmy Wurner. Jimmy, standing at six foot one, was far and away the most accomplished distance runner in the school; we suspected that he had hit puberty 2 or 3 years earlier than the average 8th grader, thereby endowing him with superhuman strength and speed - the teenage equivalent of a Kryptonian emigrant.

99 times out of 100 Jimmy “the burner” Wurner would have no doubt mopped the proverbial floor with my sorry excuse of a 14 year old distance running body. But that day, there seemed to be something different in the air. Call it destiny, call it being hopped up on Fruit Loops, but whatever it was, something funky was going on.

For some indefinable reason, I ran my little heart out and ended up finishing 4th in the field of over 100; 3 spots ahead of the burner. Granted, the victory didn’t mean much, leaving me with a blue participation ribbon that would gather dust for years to come in a box at the bottom of my bedroom closet.

What that day reinforced is this; in most sports, if your sample size is small enough, weird and unpredictable things can happen. We tend to see this lot in the NFL - with a 16 game regular season, followed by single game elimination playoff rounds the league presents the smallest sample size of any major sport, lending credence to the popular cliché that on any given Sunday, anyone can win.

If NHL collective bargaining can finally come to a conclusion this month the season will be shortened a great deal, with the excepted number of games between 48 and 60. By looking at probability and statistical noise we can see that a shorter season could result in non traditional playoff teams sneaking into the postseason.