Keeping Myself Honest: Mid-Season Prediction Review

Peter Jennings once said, "I don't think a reporter should give advice or make predictions," and while I agree with the statement, I also think it's a lot of what makes reading blogs a hell of a lot more interesting than reading Steve Simmons -- that and most Leaf bloggers understand the value of research.

Blogging provides a degree of flexibility that I find fun. Newspapers generally stay away from things like complex stats, rumours, and predictions (which is fine) but these are the things that I really enjoy about sports.

From the comfort of my Mother's basement, I blog with impunity and without rules. With no risk of repercussions, I released my list of pre-season predictions late in September, prior to the start of the regular season and now, with nobody to hold me accoutable but myself, I present to you, humble reader, the results thus far.

1) Phil Kessel will have his best goals per game ratio of his career

Kessel is currently scoring at a 0.545 goals-per-game pace and if this keeps this up through the end of the season, he'll put up 45 goals. Kessel has taken his game to an entirely different level this season and for those who follow the Leafs, it's no surprise that I get full marks for this one.

2) Gunnarsson will not finish the year as a Maple Leaf

The verdict is still very much out on this one. Most Leaf fans will know that Gunnarsson has been the team's second best defenseman this season and probably the team's most consistent overall. He's a guy I've always been high on and someone I would hate to lose. Having said that, Gunnarsson and Schenn both seem to find themselves at the center of most Toronto Maple Leaf trade rumours. With Burke having told Schenn that he hasn't been offered to anyone, one has to wonder if Gunnarsson is the defensemen whose name has been bandied about in trade offers.

Toronto Maple Leafs: 2011 - 2012 Predictions

With one week until the start of the regular season, things are starting to take shape for the Maple Leafs.  Kadri's recent injury seems to have resolved (for now, at least) the Frattin v Kadri debate.

Pierre Lebrun is reporting that Brian Burke is working the phones in an attempt to address the excess of depth on the team's defense.  This probably means that they've seen enough of Gardiner and like him enough to try and give the kid some quality NHL ice-time.  Who's on the block and what the return might be will certainly be the topic of considerable speculation in the coming weeks.

With relatively few questions surrounding the current roster, I wanted to take this opportunity to put together some predictions for the coming season.  I'll keep myself honest at the mid-way point so you all can see how smart I am... Or how badly I've failed.

Without further ado:

1)  Phil Kessel will have his best goals per game ratio of his career

I wanted to say that Kessel would score 40 goals but with his minor groin injury (there's no such thing as a groin injury that isn't nagging it seems) I'm not comfortable saying he'll play 80 games. 

Kessel has scored 30 and 32 goals in his two seasons with the Leafs while his shooting percentage has hovered around the 10% mark.  In his last year in Boston, playing with a good centerman in Marc Savard, he scored 36 and had a shooting percentage of 15.5%.  With Connolly as his center, I suspect he'll be able to roughly split that difference and with a 13% shooting percentage and similar shot numbers, he'd be on pace for almost exactly 40.