Last year, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs were witness to the rapid ascension of James Reimer. A guy who started the season behind at least two goalies on the organizational depth chart, Reimer had a solid pre-season and a season-salvaging regular season.
After winning 20 games and posting a .921 save percentage, there are a lot of Leaf fans left wondering what exactly we should be expecting from Reimer next year and I'm one of them. You have to love what you've seen from the guy so far, but goaltending more than any other position seems to be prone to statistical aberrations. I decided to run a couple of comparisons and here's what I came up with.
James Reimer was 22 years old last season. If we compare goalies post-lockout who were 23 or younger and posted GAAs of 2.70 or better and SV% of .915 or better we end up with this:
Save Percentage
Tuuka Rask (2009-10, age 22): .931
Carey Price (2010-11, age 23): .923
Henrik Lundqvist (2005-06, age 23): .922
James Reimer (2010-11, age 22): .921
Marc Andre Fleury (2007-08, age 23): .921
Carey Price (2007-08, age 20): .920
Steve Mason: (2008-09, age 20): .916
Only six goalies fit into this category (Carey Price has accomplished these kind of numbers twice) and the list includes some pretty impressive names. As you can see, Reimer's save percentage is bested only by Rask among those his age or younger.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Thursday, June 16, 2011
What the Leafs Need Most: 2011 Offseason
Heading into last offseason there were a lot of questions surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs. Luke Schenn was coming off of a tough season, Dion Phaneuf had produced very little offensively for the team, the forward corps looked like Phil Kessel and a bunch of question marks and nobody knew what to expect out of Jonas Gustavsson.
This offseason, there is a lot more clarity. Luke Schenn bounced back and there's little question about the kind of defense he'll provide. Dion Phaneuf re-found some of his offensive prowess and is expected to provide more of the same. The line of Kulemin, Grabovski and MacArthur stabilized our forwards and despite an up-and-down season, Phil Kessel still managed to put together a 32 goal year.
Despite the stability we've found in some areas, some key questions still remain. Just how good is James Reimer? Who is going to center Phil Kessel's line? Are Keith Aulie and Carl Gunnarsson ready to play consistent second pairing minutes at a high level?
With these questions in mind, I've decided to draw-up what I see as an offseason road map for the Leafs during the 2011 offseason.
This offseason, there is a lot more clarity. Luke Schenn bounced back and there's little question about the kind of defense he'll provide. Dion Phaneuf re-found some of his offensive prowess and is expected to provide more of the same. The line of Kulemin, Grabovski and MacArthur stabilized our forwards and despite an up-and-down season, Phil Kessel still managed to put together a 32 goal year.
Despite the stability we've found in some areas, some key questions still remain. Just how good is James Reimer? Who is going to center Phil Kessel's line? Are Keith Aulie and Carl Gunnarsson ready to play consistent second pairing minutes at a high level?
With these questions in mind, I've decided to draw-up what I see as an offseason road map for the Leafs during the 2011 offseason.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Baseless Speculation: Trading for a Stud Center
You may or may not be aware of this but the Toronto Maple Leafs are in the market for a first-line center. Rumours have been circulating about two players in particular -- Jeff Carter and Paul Stastny.
Philadelphia needs to shed some salary if they're going to be able to fit Bryzgalov under the cap and Carter's cap hit of $5.25M a year means that he would probably be available for the right offer. Problem here is that if you believe any of the rumours, it sounds like Columbus is involved and is using the 8th overall pick in this draft as bait.
Carter makes a lot of sense for Columbus as his near-lifetime contract would ensure that he and Nash are both members of the team for about as long as the Blue Jackets want them to be. The pick that they could offer is also a fairly high one and Philly is probably not looking to take much (if any) salary back. I doubt the Leafs would be outbidding Columbus for Carter if he were to hit the trade market.
Colorado is in a different situation entirely. They're rebuilding but they still have to reach the salary floor. At $6.6M, Stastny is by far their most expensive contract and they would need to replace his money somehow if he were dealt. Their cap situation will get considerably murkier the following season as Matt Duchene, Peter Mueller, Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Quincey are all scheduled to become RFAs next offseason. By that time, the Avs should have no problem meeting the floor, and may exceed it significantly depending on the development of their prospects. Colorado is also about to draft 2nd overall and 11th overall in the upcoming draft. The rebuild is on for the Avalanche.
Philadelphia needs to shed some salary if they're going to be able to fit Bryzgalov under the cap and Carter's cap hit of $5.25M a year means that he would probably be available for the right offer. Problem here is that if you believe any of the rumours, it sounds like Columbus is involved and is using the 8th overall pick in this draft as bait.
Carter makes a lot of sense for Columbus as his near-lifetime contract would ensure that he and Nash are both members of the team for about as long as the Blue Jackets want them to be. The pick that they could offer is also a fairly high one and Philly is probably not looking to take much (if any) salary back. I doubt the Leafs would be outbidding Columbus for Carter if he were to hit the trade market.
Colorado is in a different situation entirely. They're rebuilding but they still have to reach the salary floor. At $6.6M, Stastny is by far their most expensive contract and they would need to replace his money somehow if he were dealt. Their cap situation will get considerably murkier the following season as Matt Duchene, Peter Mueller, Erik Johnson, Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Quincey are all scheduled to become RFAs next offseason. By that time, the Avs should have no problem meeting the floor, and may exceed it significantly depending on the development of their prospects. Colorado is also about to draft 2nd overall and 11th overall in the upcoming draft. The rebuild is on for the Avalanche.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
It's a Good Time to Hop on The Wagon
What a strange time for my first post in months. It's the Finals, the draft is still weeks away, as is free agency and yet, here we are. I've been thinking a lot about our Maple Leafs lately and decided that I should put pen to pad --or rather finger to keyboard-- to let everyone know what I'm thinking (because I know you all care).
Now, ladies and gentlemen, is a good time for the casual Leaf fan to start paying attention.
A lot of hardcores like myself despise the casual fan. They haven't suffered the way we've suffered. They don't have the same understanding of the team's dynamic and they're always mis-pronouncing players' names. I admit, sometimes I get a little annoyed too but in general I embrace these fans. Sure, they're kind of the estranged uncle of Leaf Nation, but they're still part of the family.
Even the casual fan wants to be able to talk intelligibly about prospects, guys that have grown with the organization, shrewd moves that the GM has made &c. &c. and for this reason I call these fans to come out of hibernation, pull out theirGilmore [ed. yikes!] Gilmour jerseys and start reading the Globe & Mail's Leaf Beat section. Oh, you didn't know the Globe had a Leaf Beat section? Well, that's just one of the many changes in Leaf coverage since you last tuned in.
Now, ladies and gentlemen, is a good time for the casual Leaf fan to start paying attention.
A lot of hardcores like myself despise the casual fan. They haven't suffered the way we've suffered. They don't have the same understanding of the team's dynamic and they're always mis-pronouncing players' names. I admit, sometimes I get a little annoyed too but in general I embrace these fans. Sure, they're kind of the estranged uncle of Leaf Nation, but they're still part of the family.
Even the casual fan wants to be able to talk intelligibly about prospects, guys that have grown with the organization, shrewd moves that the GM has made &c. &c. and for this reason I call these fans to come out of hibernation, pull out their
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
The Good and The Bad of Dion Phaneuf (and other musings)
Yesterday I wrote about three young goal scorers on the Toronto Maple Leafs and all three of them were at it again tonight.
Kulemin started the scoring for the Leafs, netting his 23rd of the season. Kessel scored the Leafs' second goal of the night giving him 27 and Grabovski finished the night off with his 25th. Grabbo and Kessel each had two points on the night.
It was a huge win for the Leafs who are now 4 points back of the Hurricanes with 18 left to play. Buffalo might have the advantage on both of those teams as they're only two points out but have two games in hand. I know it's going to be tough and a lot will have to go right for us to squeak in but come on, we're pretty close.
Tonight we saw the good and the bad of Dion Phaneuf. For those of you who didn't see the game, in the 7th minute of the second period, Phaneuf took a horrible line on Chris Conner who was flying through the neutral zone. Matt Niskanen hit him on the tape with a beautiful pass and Conner slipped the puck past Reimer. Phaneuf is going to catch a lot of bad press for this play (even more so had the Leafs lost) but the truth is that it was a tough play. It was a mistake, no doubt about it, and the kind of error you wouldn't have seen your average defensive defenseman make. It also wasn't your run-of-the-mill McCabe-esque glaring error. I would hazard to say that the average guy that calls in to sports talk radio shows probably wouldn't have noticed Phaneuf's gaffe if the commentators hadn't drawn attention to it.
Kulemin started the scoring for the Leafs, netting his 23rd of the season. Kessel scored the Leafs' second goal of the night giving him 27 and Grabovski finished the night off with his 25th. Grabbo and Kessel each had two points on the night.
It was a huge win for the Leafs who are now 4 points back of the Hurricanes with 18 left to play. Buffalo might have the advantage on both of those teams as they're only two points out but have two games in hand. I know it's going to be tough and a lot will have to go right for us to squeak in but come on, we're pretty close.
Tonight we saw the good and the bad of Dion Phaneuf. For those of you who didn't see the game, in the 7th minute of the second period, Phaneuf took a horrible line on Chris Conner who was flying through the neutral zone. Matt Niskanen hit him on the tape with a beautiful pass and Conner slipped the puck past Reimer. Phaneuf is going to catch a lot of bad press for this play (even more so had the Leafs lost) but the truth is that it was a tough play. It was a mistake, no doubt about it, and the kind of error you wouldn't have seen your average defensive defenseman make. It also wasn't your run-of-the-mill McCabe-esque glaring error. I would hazard to say that the average guy that calls in to sports talk radio shows probably wouldn't have noticed Phaneuf's gaffe if the commentators hadn't drawn attention to it.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Young Goal Scoring on the Toronto Maple Leafs
These aren't your parents' Maple Leafs. Heck, they aren't even your older sibling's Maple Leafs. There has been so much turnover on this roster that our active leader in games played for the Leafs is Nikolai Kulemin. That's right, 24 year old, Nikolai Kulemin.
While what we've seen since Burke took the reigns of the team is far from a conventional rebuild, make no mistake -- it has been a rebuild. The new-look Leafs haven't been built through the draft and the new GM made it clear when he took over the storied franchise that he had no interest in waiting that long. The trade for Phil Kessel which saw two first round draft picks head out of town was a red flag for Leaf fans who had seen their team consistently shed youth for past-their-prime talent. But look more closely; this is different.
None of Burke's moves have been used to bring in expiring talent. He's brought in players who are peaking. True, he seems to place a lower value on draft picks than most GMs around the league but youth, at a certain point, has diminishing returns. Is being 20 considerably more valuable than being 23? The trick is to have players for as many of their peak years as you possibly can. If you can get a Joe Colborne, who is likely a year removed from the NHL, rather than a middling first round pick that is likely three years away (if ever) then what's more valuable?
While what we've seen since Burke took the reigns of the team is far from a conventional rebuild, make no mistake -- it has been a rebuild. The new-look Leafs haven't been built through the draft and the new GM made it clear when he took over the storied franchise that he had no interest in waiting that long. The trade for Phil Kessel which saw two first round draft picks head out of town was a red flag for Leaf fans who had seen their team consistently shed youth for past-their-prime talent. But look more closely; this is different.
None of Burke's moves have been used to bring in expiring talent. He's brought in players who are peaking. True, he seems to place a lower value on draft picks than most GMs around the league but youth, at a certain point, has diminishing returns. Is being 20 considerably more valuable than being 23? The trick is to have players for as many of their peak years as you possibly can. If you can get a Joe Colborne, who is likely a year removed from the NHL, rather than a middling first round pick that is likely three years away (if ever) then what's more valuable?
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