tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26105271225500678912024-02-21T04:54:36.745-05:00Blue Chip ProspectsYour source for Leafs analysis and Mikhail grabovski fanboysCurt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.comBlogger280125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-89836356093433631372014-07-08T14:30:00.000-04:002014-07-08T14:30:57.686-04:00Watching Kessel’s Prime Years Fade Away…<div class="MsoNormal">
Time is a funny thing. Maybe funny is the wrong word – you don’t
laugh out loud at time. A better word may be peculiar. Time is peculiar. You
spend your entire life being young, then one day you wake up to realize that,
well, you aren’t young anymore.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m scared this is going to happen to Phil Kessel.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s not his fault; it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fault. No,
they aren’t the reason he is getting older (we have nature to blame for that),
but they are the ones squandering away what remains of his prime years. Sure,
26 doesn’t feel THAT old, but maybe it is. He turns 27 in early October and we <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/17/5507218/nhl-stats-aging-curves-forward-types">know
from existing research that players tend to peak in their mid-to-late twenties</a>,
with significant declines taking place from 29 onward. Kessel is just over two
years away from 29. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Will he fall off of a metaphorical cliff at 29? No. It will,
however, be reasonable to assume that his best years will be in the rearview
mirror. There will always be exceptions to the well-established rules of aging,
guys like Rob Brind'Amour who set up a cot in their gym and stay healthy and
productive into their late thirties. For the most part, though, team’s need to
prepare for their stars to decline post 30. Toronto seems to be taking the
opposite approach, building their core towards a possible crescendo just as
Kessel’s numbers start to dip. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don’t mean to sound overly pessimistic, there are
positives on this team. A core of Kadri, Nylander, JVR, Gardiner, Phaneuf, Rielly
and Bernier sounds awfully nice, and it is. The issue is that half of those
players are still two or three years away from being quality NHLers. Reinforcements
are on the way, they just might not be coming fast enough.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Phaneuf is in a similar situation to Kessel, with his
decline likely more imminent (if it hasn’t started to some degree already). He’ll
be 32 or 33 years old when the team is (theoretically) in a position to
compete. If he continues to skate 24 minutes a night against some of the
toughest competition in the league then you have to wonder what will be left in
2017, 2018, and beyond.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There’s also the issue of unintended consequences. Signing
Phil and Dion to long-term deals was essentially the only solution for Toronto
a year ago. They were, and are, the team’s best forward and defenseman – they needed
to stay. However, by the time this group is thinking about contention there is
a real possibility that Kessel, and to a greater extent Phaneuf, are not worth
their cap dollars. This could hamper the team when they actually have a
reasonable chance of winning (there is an obvious irony in all of this).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of course if the salary cap continues to rise and approaches
$80 or $90 million in the near future maybe this all becomes moot. But it’s
still a risk worth noting.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In an ideal world Toronto would be in a position to make the
playoffs in the here and now. That was the idea behind adding players like
Clarkson, Bolland, and Bernier a summer ago – improve significantly in the
near-term and worry about the long-term, well, later. Unfortunately it hasn’t
worked. Clarkson looks more and more like a DiPietro-esque anvil to the cap, Bolland
left via an overpayment from Florida in free agency, and the jury is still out
on Bernier as a cornerstone backstop. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Drafting Nylander was a step in a much needed direction.
This is a prospect system devoid of high end offensive weapons, something
Nylander will address in a major way. If Toronto finishes in the lottery again
next season they’ll add another strong prospect that could be part of the
emerging next generation.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All of this leads to the bitter-sweet juxtaposition Dave
Nonis finds himself in. He needs to win soon in order to capitalize on Kessel’s
run as one of the game’s five or ten best scorers. But his roster is full of
talented youngsters who might be manning All-Star games in 2018. There isn’t an
obvious answer to this conundrum outside of “win now” and then “win later”,
too. That’s a lot easier said than done.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A lot can, and will, change over the coming two or three
seasons. For the Leafs’ sake, I hope Kessel’s on-ice production isn’t one of
them. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>Darren Kennedy</i></b><i> writes
about hockey in a few places: BCP, Mckeen’s, and Dobber Hockey. You can follow
him on twitter @fantasyhockeydk <o:p></o:p></i></div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-31481276499438290092013-12-02T19:30:00.002-05:002013-12-02T19:36:30.636-05:00This is Madness. This is Toronto!!Jake Gardiner played more minutes than any other Leafs player and then Jake Gardiner was a healthy scratch. The next game, Jake Gardiner played more minutes than any other Leafs player.<br />
<br />
If you're not a Leafs fan then this may seem crazy but if you *are* a Leafs fan then you know it's just another day in Toronto.<br />
<br />
You see, this is the franchise that continues to trot out Mark Fraser on defense rather than JM Liles, some nights Morgan Rielly and yes, some nights, Jake Gardiner. It's also the franchise that continues to smash its metaphorical head against the metaphorical wall -- 'our feelings' being the head in this metaphor and 'Tyler Bozak on the first line' being the wall.<br />
<br />
We start Bernier more than Reimer, we pay big money for Clarkson and Bozak while buying out Grabovski and watching MacArthur walk, and did I mention we keep skating Bozak on the first line?<br />
<br />
The decisions that this organization has made since Randy Carlyle took over as coach are mind-numbing. I'm sure that there are those of you who'll say, "who could have predicted x or y," and to you people I say, "everyone, basically." <br />
<br />
Rumours have been flying for the past few weeks that the Leafs are looking to bolster their defense. Also, they plan on trading Gardiner for a top-6 forward. What? Normally, I'd say that it's just the Toronto media trying to sell copy but this came from Darren Dreger and if there's a bigger shill in sports over the last 18-months, I'm not aware of him or her. The Leafs are trying to do those things, bet on it, and Dreger is going to do everything in his power to oversell Toronto's assets and undersell whoever it is that Nonis may have his beady little eyes on.<br />
<br />
Having said these things, it hasn't all been bad. The record is pretty good because the goalies have been great and one of those goalies (albeit the lesser of the two) was a Nonis acquisition. Also Bolland was a hell of a lot better than I'd expected him to be, if I'm being honest. But seriously, I have a hard time coming up with a more directionless team in the league. OK, maybe the Flyers.<br />
<br />
So go on Twitter ( <a href="https://twitter.com/bcphockeyblog">@bcphockeyblog</a> ) and call me negative, ask me if I hate the Leafs, or tell me to watch a game instead of sticking my head in spreadsheet but do those things knowing that I don't <em>like</em> being negative about my team, and I'm this frustrated because I <em>do</em> love the Leafs, and that the chances are I probably watch more hockey more closely than you do (assuming you said those things in the first place, that is.) <br />
<br />
The truth is, I'm fed up. We deserve better decision-making than what we've seen from Nonis and Carlyle so far. There's a limit to what any manager can achieve with the set of assets they're given but we've consistently mis-used the range of goods we have at our disposal, and that's something for which I can't abide. Enough is enough -- fire them both.Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-55250299079674700302013-11-12T21:18:00.001-05:002013-11-12T21:20:29.734-05:00Time On Ice: Guessing At Carlyle's FavouritesIf you ask your average advanced stat guy what's the single best metric for judging a player's talent relative to the rest of his teammates, most will say time on ice. You see, contrary to popular belief, most of us don't think NHL coaches are stupid or can't judge talent or any of the things that we're often accused of. Sure, we point out perceived mistakes when we see them but that doesn't mean we think coaches are inept -- just fallible.<br />
<br />
Randy Carlyle falls prey to these critiques more often than most. Part of it is because the Leafs do so poorly in a lot of the advanced stat metrics that proponents of the discipline have shown correlate very closely to success and the other part comes with the territory. Leafs fans, you see, are a critical and jaded bunch.<br />
<br />
For a lot of last season, I found myself infuriated with Carlyle's player selection. In my view, Franson, Grabovski, and Kadri weren't getting nearly enough icetime while Bozak was getting far too much. Add to this the Jake Gardiner demotion and I had ample fodder for my critiques.<br />
<br />
Given that three of these underused assets were young, I wondered if Carlyle had an anti-youth bias. Having given Carlyle the lockout shortened season to figure things out with this roster, I thought I'd have a look at who he's using to start this year and, crucially, in what situations to see if his own assessment of players is closer or further to my own this season.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
To pull the numbers, I went to the invaluable Behind The Net and pulled<a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_on_ice_stats.php?ds=8&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f5=TOR&c=0+1+3+5+8+9+11+13+29+31+33"> this 5-on-5 table</a> and the results were a little surprising. Jake Gardiner is the Leafs icetime leader at 5-on-5. After sent to the minors and largely underused when he was with the big club, Gardiner now sees more even strength icetime than any other Leaf. Perhaps most shocking in all of this is that I actually don't think he's been as good this year as he was last season. This leads to an interesting question: Was Carlyle right to play him less last season because in increased icetime he doesn't look as good? <br />
<br />
Now part of the reason Gardiner has seen so much even strength icetime is that he doesn't play nearly as much on the powerplay or the penaltykill as our overall icetime leaders do. There's a very real chance that Gardiner isn't even close to a Carlyle favourite but that he's merely the fresh guy once the special teams units come off the ice. Still, I'm inclined to believe that the coach is getting more comfortable using Gardiner.<br />
<br />
Kadri is still, in my opinion, being underused. He's currently third in powerplay icetime among forwards but when you consider that he's barely ahead of the injured Tyler Bozak and a player we pulled off of the scrap heap in Mason Raymond, I think it's fair to say that a player with Kadri's offensive instincts could stand to see more time with the man advantage. Still, it isn't as though Kadri is getting the Yakupov treatment.<br />
<br />
If any of the three young players listed above is truly becoming a Randy Carlyle favourite, it might be Cody Franson. Franson is seeing significant icetime at even strength, on the powerplay, and while shorthanded. He's been pretty inconsistent from game to game this season to my eye but Carlyle keeps throwing him out there and that's probably a good thing overall.<br />
<br />
Carlyle is a guy who I've always thought really liked his veterans and after last year's experience, I would have thought he wasn't comfortable using young players. It might be closer to the truth that Carlyle needs to get familiar with his young players before he can find the situations in which he<em> is</em> comfortable using them. Aside from Bozak's apparent stranglehold on the 1C and 1PPC spots, I really can't complain about Carlyle's deployment of our top-9 forwards and defense group this season. The team needs to play better but it's tough to blame the coach.Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-53056320522937929852013-10-26T16:31:00.000-04:002013-10-26T16:31:05.912-04:00Supply, Demand, and Toronto’s Defence<div class="MsoNormal">
I wasted most of my University years taking Philosophy and
Science classes, meaning there wasn’t a ton of time left over to learn the
principles of economics.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, the most basic of all economic theories, and the
one I have at least a rudimentary understanding of, is Supply and Demand. It plainly
states that the value, or price of a particular item, will vary depending on fluctuations
in both supply and demand. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For instance, if demand for a product skyrockets than there
is the potential for a shortage to occur. A shortage results in a higher price
point, since there is limited supply. Conversely, if the supply rises quickly
enough the item will enter into what is called a surplus. In this case there is
so much of an item available to everyone that its price decreases substantially.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Why am I boring you with economics terms you could have
looked up in Wikipedia yourself?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well, I think there is something here that can be applied to
the Toronto Maple Leafs, specifically to the team’s defencemen. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Every season, especially around the trade deadline, I am inundated
with report after report echoing the importance of the vaunted “puck moving
defencemen”. The majority of TSN’s 12 hour trade deadline coverage will be
split screens of Dreger, Duthie and McKenzie checking in on the availability of
veteran puck moving blueliners around the league who could be that final <i>piece of the puzzle</i>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All this brings us to the Maple Leafs, and the log jam that has
been created on defence. With Mark Fraser now close to fully recovered from a
knee injury the team will feature seven NHL caliber defencemen: Phaneuf,
Gunnarsson, Franson, Rielly, Fraser, Gardiner, and Ranger. You could say eight
if you include John-Michael Liles and his $3.8 million dollar contract currently
playing for the Marlies. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The term “puck moving” is a bit flexible and open to
interpretation. For the sake of argument let’s identify Phaneuf, Franson,
Rielly, and Gardiner as players that could be considered in that category. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dion represents a much larger discussion and we’ll likely
devote more than a few blog posts to his future. As captain and an unrestricted
free agent at season’s end, Nonis will need to decide if he is worth upwards of
$7 million dollars over five plus years. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cody Franson is coming off of a fantastic 2012-13 season in which
he finished with 29 points in 45 games. He’s off to another great start this
year with 8 assists through the first 11 games. In addition, because none of
the Leafs are ambidextrous (at least to my knowledge) he carries increased
value as a right handed shot. I have a hard time believing the Leafs would
consider moving him at this time. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Through process of elimination we are left with the two
youngsters, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner. In a perfect world, one that sadly
doesn’t yet exist, both of these guys would be given a spot on the team and
Fraser and/or Ranger would spend time in the press box. But we know coach Randy
Carlyle is a strong supporter of Mark Fraser and he’ll skate in the team’s
third pairing most evenings. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At 19 and 23 years old I don’t think it is wise for the
development of either Morgan or Jake to be sitting and watching hockey games
every night. However, with the recent <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=688274">annoucnment that Rielly will
not be</a> returned to his junior club we know that this is a strong
possibility. If their development is being put at risk then it behooves Nonis
to at least consider trading one of them to shore up a need elsewhere. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I know some rumors have been bantered about to send Gardiner
and Reimer to land a top six centermen. Personally, I just don’t see how the
math or value will work out. Reimer is a solid goalie but how many teams with a
top line centermen would be willing to send him away? Add to that the small cap
hit of Reimer and Gardiner combined and the salaries wouldn't align. Reimer
helps establish a depth in goal the Leafs haven’t had for half a decade; I’m
happy to have him for now, at least until there is a better understanding of
what Bernier is. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The scenario that does seem plausible and helps to solve an
organizational need is moving Gardiner for a top level center prospect. Outside
of Frederik Gauthier and Greg Mckegg the Leafs don’t have a ton of center
prospects in the pipeline. With all due respect to Gauthier and Mckegg, at this
moment neither player projects as a top six forward in the near future.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>What kind of deal would make sense?</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I look back to the Zack Kassian and Cody Hodgson deal as a
template Toronto could build around. Trading Gardiner to a team over indexed
with forward prospects, but in need of the ever popular puck moving defencemen.
This would help both teams address an area of weakness while also minimizing
cap issues that would subvert a larger move. I don’t necessarily want to get
into speculation on players to target since the list would be expansive. You
can review the center prospects of <a href="http://www.hockeysfuture.com/teams/toronto_maple_leafs/">all teams on
Hockey Futures</a>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I absolutely love Jake Gardiner as a player. He’s capable of
doing things on the ice that very few defencemen can replicate. At times during
the Boston series last spring he was far and away the Leafs’ best player. Unfortunately,
this may end up being a case of supply and demand where the surplus of Toronto
defencemen necessitates a move. Let’s hope it’s one that helps the team take a
positive step in its never ending quest to find a first line centerman. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Darren is a fantasy
hockey writer who can’t escape his Maple Leaf roots. If you’re ever looking to
kick around some trade ideas or want a second set of eyes on your team you can
follow him <a href="https://twitter.com/FantasyHockeyDK">@FantasyHockeyDK</a><o:p></o:p></i></div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-22243413212080993152013-10-06T14:29:00.002-04:002013-10-06T14:29:22.977-04:00Through Three: Early Observations on the Leafs SeasonThe Toronto Maple Leafs are 3-0-0 and are the only team in the NHL who can make that claim. Awesome.<br />
<br />
To win three games in a row, some things have to be going well and there have certainly been some positives in the early going for Toronto but it hasn't been all sunshine and smiles. With three games in the books, I thought I'd share some of my observations from the early days of the 2013-14 season.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Good and the Bad of Tyler Bozak</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
I'll preface this by saying that I've been on Bozak's case for an awfully long time now but he really hasn't done anything in the first three games to alter my opinion of him. He throws the puck to Kessel in all situations and doesn't have the skill or offensive instincts to capitalize when Kessel gives it back. There have been at least a half-dozen opportunities in the early stages of the season where Bozak has either feebly put a one-time shot in the direction of the net or missed the puck entirely. What it all boils down to is that Bozak is a disaster at 5-on-5 and the fact that he's still skating with Kessel is either a damning reflection of the job Burke/Nonis have done at filling the centre position or an indictment of Randy Carlyle's deployment of the centres we do have.<br />
<br />
Having said all of that, Bozak has looked awfully good on the penalty-kill. He's been playing the points very aggressively and twice in the first three games it's paid off -- once with a shorthanded goal and once with what nearly turned into a shorthanded breakaway. Couple this with his proficiency in the shootout and Bozak has it in him to be a useful player in select situations.<br />
<br />
<strong>Van Riemsdyk's Steady Play</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
Is it just me or has Van Riemsdyk quickly become one of the most consistent Leafs forwards? He seems to create at least one scoring chance for himself every game at even strength and he always looks dangerous on the powerplay. I've been very impressed with Van Riemsdyk's play thus far and I've got a feeling he's going to put up some pretty gaudy special teams numbers.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<strong>Our Goalies Are Great</strong><br />
<br />
As much as I'm a Reimer fanboy, he had a bit of a rough one last night. His defense was collapsing all over him (often literally) but he was still scrambling more than you'd like to see. Despite that, we all know what he's capable of and he outplayed Carey Price in Montreal during the season opener. <br />
<br />
Bernier has put in a pair of masterful performances so far. The Leafs had a horrible first period and a pretty rough game overall in Philadelphia and Bernier still managed to earn the Buds a win. Last night, he came into the game in a tough situation, down 4-2, and held Ottawa scoreless for the remainder of the game and the shootout.<br />
<br />
You may not think that the Leafs needed another goalie but you'd have to acknowledge that the team looks better for having two young studs in net.<br />
<br />
<strong>What The Heck Is Going On With Our Defense?</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
Aside from Dion Phaneuf, our defense has looked somewhere between not good and brutal in each of the first three games. Ranger has been terrible, Franson has been occasionally great (Montreal, Philadelphia) and sometimes abysmal (Ottawa), Gardiner has been a factor at both ends of the ice, and Gunnarsson hasn't bounced back to his pre-hip injury form. If the Leafs are going to make the playoffs this season, they'll need a better effort from their backend than what they've been given thus far.<br />
<br />
<strong>Good Find, Nonis</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
It's early but the additions Nonis made in the offseason have all looked good. I think everyone expected Mason Raymond to be a solid addition to the team and Bernier has certainly lived up to his end of the bargain through a game and a half. Personally, I wasn't enamoured with the acquisition of Dave Bolland but he's looked really solid so far. I'm not sure that I buy the "untapped offensive potential" argument just yet but he's been a positive player for the team so far and he's started changing my mind.<br />
<br />
I'm interested to see what happens when Clarkson rejoins the team. He didn't really standout for me in the pre-season but he adds an element of skilled-toughness that this team doesn't really have. I'm also of the opinion that he and Kadri might make a pretty formidable 1-2 punch on the second line (assuming Carlyle doesn't come to his senses and start skating Kadri with Kessel.) <br />
<br />
<strong>Presented Without Comment</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
Phil Kessel is the man.<br />
<strong></strong>Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-91673894945859011842013-09-29T13:48:00.001-04:002013-09-29T13:48:48.916-04:00Toronto Maple Leafs Roster ShakedownsMy morning started with the news that Joe Colborne had been traded to the Calgary Flames for a fourth round draft pick that could become a third round draft pick if the NHL decided mid-season that all 30 teams would make the playoffs starting this year.<br />
<br />
Next came the news that John-Michael Liles was on waivers and then finally word that Morgan Rielly would be starting the season in the NHL.<br />
<br />
My feelings on the roster that's about to start the 2013-14 season is a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, I'm pleasantly surprised that the Leafs decided to keep Rielly for the time being. For one thing, I think he'll do more learning at the NHL-level than he will in the WHL with a pretty woeful Moose Jaw team and for another, I think he's a much better defenseman today than a guy like Mark Fraser. As long as Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, and Ranger are eating PK minutes, I don't see any reason to carry Fraser ahead of Rielly.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
As it pertains to the trade of Joe Colborne, I'm more than a little disappointed though not entirely surprised. When trying to assess Colborne, the numbers don't really tell the whole story. He's fought for icetime on a veteran laden AHL time and more recently fought through a serious wrist injury so the per-game totals aren't what you'd hope for but there's a reason a 24-year old with 18 career NHL games and no waiver eligibility just brought in a draft pick; he's a skilled center with size.<br />
<br />
I'm not trying to suggest that Colborne is definitively going to be a top-6 player at any stage of his career but the fact of the matter is, he might be. Not only that, he's affordable. I'm not anti-toughness and I'm not anti-fighting but the idea of paying a premium to have Colton Orr in the lineup rather than Colborne is infuriating to me. If there's a non-zero chance that Colborne is a top-9 forward and he makes less money than Orr, why trade him for scraps?<br />
<br />
Before the pre-season got underway I <a href="http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.ca/2013/08/toronto-maple-leafs-season-pre-preview.html">predicted that Carter Ashton would make the team</a>. Not only that -- I'm happy he did. Ashton is the kind of role player that everyone should love. He's big and he forechecks well, he takes his defensive responsibilities seriously, and he's skilled enough that he wouldn't look out of place playing up in the lineup if you're in a pinch.<br />
<br />
If I had to describe the Leafs roster in a word, ironically, it would be "deep" -- I say "ironically" because they're going to have fewer roster players than most teams as a result of their self-inflicted cap crunch but I digress. The Leafs will have a third defense pairing that could probably be a 2nd defense pairing, a backup goalie who could be a starter (or <em>should be </em>if it ends up being the case that Bernier starts on Tuesday), and a surplus of top-6 wingers. As always, the top-end talent doesn't compare with the league's top teams but we're icing a good product this season.<br />
<br />
<br />
I don't know about you guys but I can't wait until Tuesday.<br />
Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-71210324191399235972013-09-24T19:09:00.000-04:002013-09-24T21:45:29.389-04:00Puck Handling: How Jonathan Bernier Can Help Toronto With More Than Just His Fists<div class="MsoNormal">
On Sunday night there was bedlam at the ACC, with John Scott
attempting to punch the face of Mr. Kessel, leading to 239 minutes of penalties
and at least a couple of suspensions from the league.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unfortunately the Leafs only dressed one of their three
resident tough guys, that being goaltender Jonathan Bernier…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ok, maybe he isn’t exactly an “enforcer” per se, but as it
turns out our newest tender <a href="http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/09/23/toronto-maple-leafs-prepare-for-possible-david-clarkson-suspension-as-nhl-investigates-brawl-with-buffalo-sabres/" target="_blank">throws a pretty mean right hook. </a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The twitterverse was taken over by news of the brawl, with
many comparing the goalie dust up to the unforgettable Potvin versus Hextall
fight in 1996. While I wouldn't quite put the confrontation in that realm, it
did provide us all with an excuse to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaLO1m-08SI" target="_blank">watch this video again.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Those observing the fight live stood and cheered, loving a
goalie tussle in the way one would love to witness two T-Rex in a boxing
match. I imagine Nonis was in a corporate suite somewhere covering his eyes, as
a broken wrist or dislocated shoulder from Bernier would have further
complicated the teams cap woes and left them $2.9 million dollars in the press
box. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bernier was of course brought to Toronto not to fight
others, but to fight for starting minutes with James Reimer. I’ll try to avoid
going down the path of “was the trade necessary” given the team already had a
capable number one, since that story has been covered quite a bit. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Instead I want to talk about what Bernier can do outside of
his crease, specifically with his stick. A couple days ago I came across a
<a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/05/25/tender-touches-an-attempt-to-measure-martin-brodeurs-puckhandling-impact/" target="_blank">great article from the Edmonton Journal</a> on Martin Brodeur. The post looks at how
Marty’s puck handling effects the flow of a game.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The author looks at a five game series between the Devils
and Flyers, keeping track of every time
either Brodeur or Bryzgalov touches the puck. The results were very
interesting. During only 5 games Brodeur made a “good pass” to a teammate 90
times, compared to Bryzgalov’s 15. When it came to clearing the puck to a less dangerous
spot on the ice Brodeur had 32 successful occurrences, while Bryzgalov was 13. I
would encourage you to read the full article, as it goes into quite a bit more
detail. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So what does this mean for the Maple Leafs? <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While for starters everything I have been able to find on
Bernier says he is a fantastic puck handler. His comfort leaving his crease to
stop a dump in, or an end a round is evident when you observe him playing. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Conversely, handling the puck has never been James Reimer’s
greatest asset. He routinely looks a bit awkward outside his net and will make
an effort to avoid playing pucks whenever possible. I don’t have data on how
much this has or hasn’t impacted the Leafs defensively. However, anecdotally, I
have witnessed a number of frantic scrambles in Toronto’s end as a direct
result of poor decision making from Reimer with the puck. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Bernier can improve this for the Leafs it could have a
positive effect on their shot differential. I couldn’t find a definitive analysis
on how much shot differential and Corsi is impacted by a strong goalie, but it
stands to reason that if your tender clears the puck to safety the opposition
will have the puck less often.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If the opposition is unable to gain possession of the puck
on a fore-check, then they will conceivably have less shots on net. The common
sense approach says this would be the case, but I’d be very interested to see a
full study (if you have anything toss it up in the comments). NHL numbers also looked at the Journal article and did
some work on this, but the <a href="http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/5/27/the-impact-of-a-goaltenders-puckhandling-skills" target="_blank">results were a bit inconclusive.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For instance, in the Brodeur and Bryzgalov example Marty
would routinely pass 15 to 20 pucks to his teammates, no doubt helping to them
advance the play forward. On the other hand, Bryzgalov would make between 1 and
5 good passes per game. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I won’t pretend to know exactly what the difference is
between Reimer and Bernier’s ability here, but it is clear a difference exists.
If Bernier can utilize his stick handling and work cohesively with Leafs blueliners
he could add a nice wrinkle to their defensive strategy. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For a team that was out shot 32 to 26 last season (2<sup>nd</sup> worst in the NHL),
it certainly wouldn't hurt. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Darren is editor of The Man Advantage, a fantasy hockey
blog, and contributor to Blue Chip Prospects. You can follow him
<a href="https://twitter.com/intent/user?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fplatform.twitter.com%2Fwidgets%2Ffollow_button.1379634856.html&partner=undefined&region=following&screen_name=TMA_Hockey_blog&tw_p=followbutton&variant=2.0" target="_blank">@TMA_Hockey_blog </a></i><o:p></o:p></div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-88710645817206249462013-08-31T16:05:00.002-04:002013-09-02T17:53:46.990-04:00Toronto Maple Leafs Season Pre-PreviewHaving missed the playoffs for 8 consecutive seasons, you might think that a playoff berth would mean fewer offseason changes but you'd be wrong. With some key pieces shipped out of town, some big tickets handed out to other highly sought after players, this year's Leafs have the same frame with a different finish.<br />
<br />
With all the roster changes, the development of some key prospects, and a coach with a little more familiarity with the returning players, we thought that we'd make our best guesses at what this team will look like headed into the 2013-'14 season.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Out: Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski, Ben Scrivens, Matt Frattin, Mike Kostka, Mike Komisarek, Leo Komarov</em></strong><br />
<strong><em></em></strong><br />
At first glance, it doesn't look like the Leafs lost much in the way of production. Grabovski (16), MacArthur (20), and Frattin (13) all finished outside the top-7 in scoring on last year's team. What these numbers don't show is that all three of these players had a higher O-zone finish than O-zone start, suggesting they were all pushing play in the right direction. Of the returning Leafs, only Nazem Kadri and Jay McClement can make that claim which leads to the inevitable question, "who is going to do the heavy lifting?"<br />
<br />
<strong><em>In: Dave Bolland, David Clarkson, TJ Brennan, Jonathan Bernier</em></strong><br />
<strong><em></em></strong><br />
The Leafs hope that the answer to that question will, in part, be Dave Bolland. Bolland's advanced stats don't suggest that he's going to be a possession monster by any stretch but the Leafs think that he's the ideal third line centre. <br />
<br />
Clarkson is the powerforward that the Leafs haven't had since time immemorial. He shoots a ton, he fights, he scores his share, and he pushes the play to the offensive zone. What you also get, however, is a career shooting percentage under 10. What should Leafs fans expect? A physically dominating puck-hog who will score but whose linemates probably wont.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Whether Bernier is better than Reimer is something I'm highly sceptical of but he's certainly an improvement over Scrivens and at worst, he'll provide the Leafs with the injury insurance they may very well need.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Young Blood: Morgan Rielly, Stuart Percy, Jesse Blacker, Jerry D'Amigo, Carter Ashton, Petter Granberg</em></strong><br />
<strong><em></em></strong><br />
One of the benefits of last year's lockout is that I got to watch a lot of CHL and AHL games with my new-found spare time. Morgan Rielly was the obvious standout among Leafs prospects but the team has been overly cautious with its prospects since Luke Schenn. If you were to ice the best team possible, I truly feel that Rielly would be on the roster.<br />
<br />
Percy, Blacker, and Granberg will all likely start the season in the AHL but don't be surprised if one of these three cracks the opening day lineup if the Leafs choose to toll Rielly's Entry Level Contract for one more year. While Blacker would seem to have the inside edge on the surface, Granberg has all the makings of being a shiny new toy; I'll give him the edge in camp.<br />
<strong><em></em></strong><br />
<strong><em>Predictions:</em></strong><br />
<strong><em></em></strong><br />
<strong><em>Line 1: </em></strong>The more things change, the more Phil Kessel is stuck with a crummy centre. Expect Bozak, Kessel, and Lupul to stick together for another season.<br />
<br />
<strong><em>Line 2</em></strong>: Assuming Kadri is signed, our best centre will be skating between a pair of giants in Clarkson and Van Riemsdyk. Clarkson will drive Kadri's on-ice shooting percentage way down from the heights it reached last season but this line will score its share of goals and if Van Riemsdyk is more 2012-13 than 2011-12, they'll be tenacious on the forecheck as well.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Line 3</strong></em>: McClement, Bolland, and Kulemin should form Randy Carlyle's ideal third line... on paper. While I love McClement's skill on the PK and think Kulemin is one of the more underappreciated players on the team, I think this line could be a real weak point at even strength if they play the kind of minutes Grabo et al played last season.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Line 4</strong></em>: Joe Colborne will centre Carter Ashton and a rotating cast of facepunchers. This is the year that Colborne gets his fulltime chance at an NHL roster spot and I actually think that he'll seize it. He wasn't the same player last season as he was the prior year before his wrist injury but Colborne has an intriguing skillset and his combination of size and skating should keep him in the league.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Pair 1</strong></em>: Dion Phaneuf will be back with a healthy Carl Gunnarsson and order will be restored to the Leafs' blueline. Look for Carlyle to scale back Phaneuf's minutes a bit from last year and expect a better product from our captain in a contract year.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Pair 2</strong></em>: Jake Gardiner and Cody Franson will form a defensive pair that the mainstream media will hate. When they make a mistake in coverage, people will jump all over them and cry for the coach to split them up and pair each of them with a defensive specialist. The reality is, these two will create so many more chances than they surrender that they'll be closer to a pair 1A than a pair 2.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Pair 3</strong></em>: Paul Ranger and Mark Fraser will be our third pairing of defense out of camp. Once Fraser's lack of defensive skill at 5-on-5 finally catches up to him, he'll be back with the Marlies but Carlyle isn't very quick to adapt and Fraser's plus/minus (or whatever the hell) from last year will keep him pencilled in to the lineup on opening day.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>In The Crease</strong></em>: I have this sneaking suspicion that the team would rather see Bernier start opening day than Reimer and in sample sizes as small as a pre-season, I feel like it's a coinflip as to who outperforms who. With that in mind, I'm giving Bernier the nod, despite feeling that Reimer is the better puckstopper.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Morgan Rielly</strong></em>: As dynamic as Rielly is, he probably has to play mistake-free hockey to make this team out of camp and he isn't a mistake-free defenseman. He'll be better than half of our D who make the team but the mistakes he does make will probably cost him his spot on the team for this season. <br />
<br />
<strong><em>Making Noise: </em></strong>Josh Leivo's work ethic and decision-making with the puck will have Leafs fans buzzing. As I mentioned earlier, I think Granberg will probably be called "the next Gunnarsson" several dozen times between now and opening day.<br />
<br />
Those are my educated guesses -- how about yours?Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-80107579314229325212013-08-28T21:28:00.001-04:002013-09-22T19:19:28.881-04:00Return of the Winged Wheel - Comparing Toronto and Detroit at Key PositionsThis summer the NHL finally got around to re-aligning their divisions. The goal was to put teams that are geographically connected in the same division and help lessen the number of arduous travel schedules.<br />
<br />
One of the major beneficiaries of the new divisional structure is the Detroit Red Wings, who were long overdue for a spot in the Eastern Conference. They are now part of the Atlantic Division alongside the Bruins, Sabres, Panthers, Canadiens, Senators, Lightning and your very own Toronto Maple Leafs.<br />
<br />
The consensus here is that adding Detroit to the Eastern Conference will be a negative for teams like the Leafs, who will now have to play the perennial Stanley Cup contenders more regularly. I wanted to take a look at both teams rosters, at key positions, to see just how much of a difference there is on paper.<br />
<br />
<b>First Line Winger</b> - Henrik Zetterberg vs. Phil Kessel<br />
<br />
What Zetterberg has accomplished for the Red Wings over the last 10 years certainly pushes the needle in his direction. However, the comparison is for the 2013-14 season, not the pedigree Zetterberg has developed over the past decade<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Henrik is coming off a fantastic 2012-13 season in which he posted a 85 point game pace, tying for 13th in the league. Zetterberg has been about as consistent an offensive player as you could hope for, never amassing less than 68 points since 2004 and breaking the 300 shot plateau 4 times in his career.<br />
<br />
2 years ago I would have given a clear advantage to Detroit, but Kessel has managed to close the gap. Over the past two seasons he has asserted himself as one of the games preeminent wingers, finishing in the top 8 in scoring both years.<br />
<br />
Phil's top end speed and acceleration is almost unmatched, and he has a wrist shot that haunts one-piece composite sticks everywhere (I wasn't meant to bend that way!). Henrik will turn 33 in October, while many players have maintained elite status into their mid thirties it is reasonable to expect a slight decline in his performance in the coming seasons.<br />
<br />
Defensively I have always been unbelievably impressed with Zetterberg. He is considered by many to be one of the best two way forwards, with the Corsi rating to prove it (10.5 more shots for over 60 minutes). Keseel has shown glimpses of defensive responsibility, especially in the playoffs where he looked engaged in the Leafs end. I am willing to forgive Kessel on the defensive end, given that he is forced to tow Tyler Bozak up and down the ice.<br />
<br />
<i>Verdict </i>- Impossible to render a verdict either way - Zetterberg's consistency and Kessel's emergence as a top 10 offensive player make it a toss up for me.<br />
<br />
<b>Top Line Center</b> - Tyler Bozak versus Pavel Datsyuk<br />
<br />
Some will argue the Leafs don't have a top line center, or that if we are forced to anoint one it would sooner be Nazem Kadri in before Tyler Bozak. I take the approach that if Randy Carlyle is allotting more ice time to Bozak than any other center, and he is skating beside the teams best winger, he is by definition the top line centerman.<br />
<br />
I'll spare everyone the mental exercise of comparing these two. Datsyuk may be 35 but he is a superior player to Bozak in all aspects of the game, even when examining Bozak's beloved face-offs (Datysuk finished last year at 56.2%, Bozak at 52.7%)<br />
<br />
<i>Verdict </i>- We could compare them again in 3,4 even 5 years, I don't see a scenario under which Datysuk isn't the more effective player. This highlights one of the glaring problems with the Leafs roster - their first line centerman is far less talented than the player he lines up against nearly every night. This creates mismatches and gives the opposition, Detroit, or whomever, a clear advantage to exploit.<br />
<br />
<b>Top Defenceman</b> - Dion Phaneuf versus Niklas Kronwall<br />
<br />
I like this comparison because both players have a similar style on the ice. Both Kronwall and Phaneuf (at least in his formative years) tend to play a more physical style of hockey, while also contributing offensively. During last years truncated season Niklas finished with 29 points and Dion ended with 28. <br />
<br />
Phaneuf has been forced to augment his game a bit in recent years, with the coaching staff relying on him to play upwards of 25 minutes a night he can appear visibly tired at times. My opinion is that this has forced him to forgo jumping in on the offensive rush to conserve energy for his defensive responsibilities. I would greatly prefer to see him playing 21 or 22 minutes in a more offensive role, as opposed to lining up against the other teams most dangerous players.<br />
<br />
Kronwall has been groomed as the heir apparent to Nicklas Lidstrom in Detroit, logging heavy minutes against some of the better players in the NHL (Quality of Competition Metric).<br />
<br />
Both men were part of relatively successful power plays last year (around 18%, 14th and 15th in the league). I would argue that Phaneuf's one timer is a more potent weapon than anything Kronwall brings to the man advantage, although my observations of Kronwall have been limited to the playoffs. <br />
<br />
<i>Verdict </i>- Two similar players, with Leafs boasting a slight advantage.<br />
<br />
<b>Goaltending</b> - James Reimer / Johnathan Bernier versus Jimmy Howard<br />
<br />
In 2013-14 Jimmy Howard posted stellar numbers across all categories, finishing with a 2.13 goals against average and .923 save percentage. Those numbers, along with a substantial extension from Ken Holland, have cemented him as Detroit's goalie of the future.<br />
<br />
For the Leafs it's hard to compare someone directly to Howard, given that Reimer and Bernier are stuck in a pseudo tandem until one or the other wins the starting gig. Both goalies have the ability to outplay Howard in the right situation. Reimer's .924 save percentage last season was 8th in the NHL (among starters) and he was at times spectacular in the playoffs.<br />
<br />
Bernier seems to carry a level of mystique and untapped potential that the other two may not have. Based partly on his entry draft pedigree (11th overall) and long being considered the best back up in the NHL.<br />
<br />
<i>Verdict </i>- Another close position, I'll lean every so slightly towards Howard given his longer sample size and elite stats over the past two seasons.<br />
<br />
<b>Second Line Center </b>- Nazem Kadri versus Stephen Weiss<br />
<br />
The free agent signing of Stephen Weiss provides the Red Wings with depth at center they sorely needed after loosing Valtteri Filppula to the Lightning. Weiss has been a consistent, if unspectacular scoring center throughout his career in Florida. Finishing with over 42 every season since 2006, including a career high of 61 in 2008-2009. Part of me has always questioned Weiss because he played so many years on a poor team, posting numbers as a defacto top line player. Olli Jokinen was a prized asset during his time in Florida but has never been able to replicate that success in another uniform.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Toronto will have (hopefully have, please have, better have!) Nazem Kadri playing the second line center position, flanked by the likely duo of Joffrey Lupul and David Clarkson (assuming JVR plays on the first line).<br />
<br />
Kadri lacks the resume of Weiss, but possess infinitely more offensive upside. With 44 point in 48 games last season Kadri displayed the kind of offensive wizardry that few in the NHL possess. His offensive talents are mitigated somewhat by defensive deficiencies and his slightly odd skating style. From what I have seen he may be an underrated defensive player - always working hard along the half wall and intercepting passes at times. He lacks the physicality to handle some of the gurthier (is that a word?) centerman in the league, but that could come with age and training.<br />
<br />
<i>Verdict </i>- Advantage to Kadri and Leafs here. The upcoming season will be a telling one for Kadri, if he can build upon last years success he'll potentially be listed under the 'top line' centerman category in next years post.<br />
<br />
Overall the Leafs have a lineup that seems capable of matching up with the Red Wings. There is no denying the success enjoyed Detroit's core, players like Zetterburg, Datysuk, Franzen, Kronwall, and now Alfredsson have proven themselves over a number of years. But this season's incarnation is similar to the one that looked mediocre throughout 2012-2013 before erupting for two fantastic playoff series with the Ducks and Hawks.<br />
<br />
Toronto has players that are capable at most key positions, with the obvious exception of top line center (Dammit Bozak!). Over a 7 game playoff series I would likely still pick Detroit, but the gap certainly isn't as pronounced as it was over the past 3 or 4 years.<br />
<br />
When it was announced the Red Wings were moving into the newly formed Atlantic division the prevailing opinion was that the Leafs now had to regularly contend with an NHL heavyweight. Looking closely at the two rosters I'm not convinced the Leafs are that far off, now if only we ca convince Borschevsky to give it one more year....<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-12372466334499674512013-08-18T18:04:00.004-04:002013-09-22T19:19:39.050-04:00The Departed - How Losing Grabovski and MacArthur Will Force the Leafs to Think Differently<div class="MsoNormal">
The departure of Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur this
offseason wasn't exactly unexpected. We knew that Grabovski’s style of play
wasn't meshing well with Randy Carlyle’s punch people in the face first, figure
out how to generate shots second approach. Meanwhile, MacArthur had found
himself a healthy scratch during key games near the end of the season and into
the playoffs. Even though we sort of saw these moves on the horizon, it has
done little to soften the blow that losing these two has leveled on the teams
top 9 forward group. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Carlyle has prided himself on being a “defensive coach”- wielding
a complex system that keeps shots to the outside therefore minimizing high
quality scoring chances. We can debate the merits of this system another day,
knowing that research tends to indicate that shot quality evens out over time
and shot volume is the best indicator of future success. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before Carlyle, Ron Wilson also attempted to bring defensive
responsibility to the Leafs, specifically on the penalty kill where he was
known as a “guru” of sorts. Of course the Leafs had one of the most atrocious penalty
killing units in the league (Finished last in PK% in both 2008-09 and 2009-10).
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite a focus on defence the Leafs have actually managed
to have one of the better offensive groups over the past 2 years. Last season
the team averaged 3.02 goals per game, landing them 6<sup>th</sup> in the
league. In 2011-12 they were a respectable 10<sup>th</sup> with 2.77 per game. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In watching those 2 Leafs teams one of their key attributes has
been forward depth up and down the lineup. Kessel and Lupul have certainly been
fantastic over that time, but contributions from the likes of Kulemin, Kadri,
Grabovski, MacArthur, and Bozak have played a role in the team’s offensive success.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2011-12 Grabovski finished 3<sup>rd</sup> on the club in
scoring with 51 points, with MacArthur finishing 6<sup>th</sup>, with 43
points. There is no doubt that in last year’s truncated season both players were
counted on less offensively, ending the year 8<sup>th</sup> and 11<sup>th</sup>
in scoring respectively. Without these two and the flexibility they afforded
the coaching staff I am unsure if the team will be able to generate offence
consistently throughout the forward group.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
New Leafs forwards David Clarkson and Dave Bolland will help
mitigate some of the lost production, but not all of it. Clarkson and Bolland
have each broken the 40 point plateau once in their NHL careers. While they are
useful players in their own right, they are far from offensive dynamos. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now it’s not all bad - perhaps the Leafs can embrace their new
situation and deploy two lines designed purely for scoring. Line combinations
won’t be final for a few weeks but I would expect the top 9 to look something
like this:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kessel – Bozak – Lupul</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
JVR – Kadri – Clarkson</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
McClement – Bolland - Kulemin </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In this case we would see McClement switching to the wing,
allowing Bolland to play his natural position of center. The new 3<sup>rd</sup>
line would feature three players known for their defensive capabilities.
Kulemin's 30 goal season is more and more becoming a distant memory and
McClement has consistently been an 8 to 12 goal scorer. While some have lauded
Dave Bolland's offensive potential, <a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/19/4536974/maple-leafs-news-links-rumors-boring-july-19-2013" target="_blank">a conversation PPP had with Chicago bloggers</a> has me thinking his offensive contributions will be limited. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ideally Carlyle would feed his 3<sup>rd</sup> line absurdly brutal
minutes. Lining up against tough competition and starting the majority of their
shifts in the defensive zone. Essentially, these 3 guys wouldn’t skate in the offensive
zone unless there was a commercial break and they were stretching their legs. (Free
fantasy hockey advice: Don’t draft any of them!)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The top 2 lines would need to be used in as many goal
scoring positions as possible. Offensive zone start percentages for these lines
should be above 50%. Last season, both Kessel and Lupul had O-zone starting
percentages under 50% (<a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=63&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f5=TOR&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#" target="_blank">Behind the Net</a>), which is a bit of a head scratcher for me. Neither of
them are Selke candidates and should be used accordingly. They are elite offensive
players and their primary focus is to produce goals (hockey being the goal
scoring competition that it is).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A great example is how Alain Vigneault utilized Daniel and
Henrik Sedin in Vancouver last season. Both players started well over 60% of
their shifts in the offensive zone. The tougher, defensive zone starts were
reserved for players like Ryan Kesler, David Booth and Christopher Higgins. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Carlyle and his coaching staff may need to take a page from Vancouver’s
playbook and provide more scoring opportunities to their top 6 forwards. In
years past the Leafs’ forward depth allowed for more balanced zone starts and
overall deployment. However, the departure of Grabovksi and MacArthur has
changed dynamic of this group – hopefully the coaching strategy reflects this. </div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-57406490020159351562013-08-12T19:24:00.002-04:002013-08-12T21:34:34.339-04:00Good Forwards, Good Defense, and an Average Team: Quick Fixes for the Maple LeafsCheering for a mediocre team is a funny thing, particularly when that team spends all the way to the ceiling of the salary cap. Almost everyone agrees that there's a problem but nobody can agree on what that problem is -- or at least they don't agree for long.<br />
<br />
A few years ago, on paper, the Leafs looked like they'd have a strong defense with Phaneuf, Beauchemin, Gunnarsson, Komisarek, Schenn, and Kaberle. It should have been a formidable group and yet it wasn't. Our forward group looked like it was Phil Kessel and a bunch of also-rans and yet they scored.<br />
<br />
Last year, again on paper, the offense looked really deep (with a pretty similar cast of characters, surprisingly) and the defense looked like it would be a disaster. With Gunnarsson ailing, Liles and Komisarek playing poorly and Gardiner playing hardly at all, the defensive group feels like they should be pretty terrible and yet Steve Burtch at <a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/8/8/4582260/making-use-of-new-ideas-dcorsi">PPP shows us this</a> where our best defensemen compare to Lidstrom (Phaneuf), Pitkanen (Gardiner), Marc Staal (Gunnarsson), and Tom Gilbert (Franson) and we're forced to wonder what exactly the problem is.<br />
<br />
For the last couple of years I've been arguing that a lot of the problem with this team has been the defensive play of the forward group and the evidence seems to be piling up. For every Kulemin and Grabovski there's been a Bozak or a Lupul to counteract their defensive edge and until about 18 months ago, Kessel was really struggling with his defensive game.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
As much as I'm a proponent of possession-based metrics, I'm not the type who wants to throw the baby out with the bath water. I like Joffrey Lupul and I think there's a place for him on this team, I just think that it's incumbent on the coach to get him on the ice in offensive situations or against favourable opposition.<br />
<br />
What has irked me about Carlyle is the way that he's deployed this team's fringe talent. Guys like Kostka and Fraser saw way too much icetime in critical situations last year. If we're taking a possession hit by dressing a guy with Lupul's ability to produce goals on offense then I'm OK with it. Why we'd be willing to take a possession hit for a guy like Frazer McLaren or Colton Orr however is beyond me.<br />
<br />
Now this isn't intended to be an argument on the value of fighting. If McLaren or Orr were pushing the puck in the right direction, I'd be thrilled to have them on my fourth line but the reality is, we've spent the duration of Randy Carlyle's tenure icing a fourth line that has handicapped this team's ability to outshoot / outchance the opposition. <br />
<br />
If you're building a team and you're looking for a tactical advantage, it seems to me that putting good possession players on your fourth line seems like a pretty good way to go. The league's best possession players are, unsurprisingly, also the players who are among the best in more traditional metrics which means that they're paid appropriately. Skating a fourth line full of Leo Komarov-types seems like a cost effective way to use advanced stats to your advantage. It also means more offensive zone faceoffs where you can shelter the Joffrey Lupuls on your roster.<br />
<br />
A lot of the frustration around the blogging community with Randy Carlyle revolved around the way he deployed his talent but there wasn't much of an impetus for him to change that strategy because, let's face it, the results were pretty good. Now I know that you're betting against the odds if you keep Kadri on the third line in favour of Bozak or skate Kostka with Phaneuf but I'm actually more curious to see if he changes his stripes when the results <em>aren't</em> there. If the Leafs lose 3 of 5 to start the year with McLaren and Orr in the lineup, do they get the scratch or does Carlyle lay the blame where it doesn't belong? Whether he correctly identifies the problem when the results aren't there is something I'm keen to see.<br />
<br />
While we may not agree on the value of psychological factors or on the impact a fight can have on a game, I think we can all agree that having a fourth line that can play competent hockey would be a good thing. Getting some affordable forwards who move the puck down the ice may not be the sexiest way to go from mediocre to good but I do think it's the simplest answer for this Leafs team.Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-29729132906839822732013-08-10T17:41:00.003-04:002013-09-22T19:19:54.817-04:00Thoughts on Bernier, the Leafs' Cap Woes and.... Goldberg?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves>false</w:TrackMoves>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing>
<w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing>
<w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery>
<w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:DontAutofitConstrainedTables/>
<w:DontVertAlignInTxbx/>
</w:Compatibility>
</w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="276">
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]-->
<!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
line-height:115%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<!--StartFragment-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
We are almost 2 months into the Jonathan Bernier era in
Toronto (if we can in fact call it an ‘era’) and opinions remain mixed over
whether he should have ever arrived. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fans' thoughts around Bernier and the trade that brought him
here seem to fall in line with four primary themes. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>1) James Reimer's play last year did not warrant expending
assets on another goalie</b>. This is, to some extent, very true. Reimer posted
some of best numbers of his career, finishing with an even strength save
percentage of .924 and goals against average of 2.46. At 25 years of age it is
entirely possible Reimer is arriving as a top 10-15 goalie in the NHL. And
since you can only ice one goalie at a time, Bernier represents a redundancy. That is unless the Leafs are planning to transition one of the two netminders into a forward - <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KsWfp5SYnI" target="_blank">anecdotal evidence indicates this would be pretty awesome. </a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2) Reimer has never been healthy during a full, 82 game season,
forcing management to add a potential starting goalie. </b>This again, is a valid
argument. Reimer has started 43%, 42%, and 65% of Leafs games over the past 3
seasons. Yes, a lot of his injury woes can be traced back to the wayward Gionta
elbow and subsequent concussion symptoms, but he still hasn’t been consistently
healthy. After watching Ben Scrivens play last year many fans (myself included)
were not comfortable with him as a defacto starter should something have
happened to Riemer. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>3) Bernier has been the best backup in the NHL and possess the
potential to be a star goalie for years to come.</b> Drafted 11th overall in 2006
Beriner comes with the cache of being a highly touted prospect. Reimer, on the
other hand, was drafted in the 4th round. Where a player was drafted should not
dictate their value in the league, but it can be used as an accurate barometer
for how the league felt about the player in his draft year. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Both goalies are the same age - this isn't a case of a young prospect pushing an aging veteran. Regardless of draft position both goalies could be improving and have
the potential to be top 15 netminders in the league for years to come. The
question here is did the team need to have two players at the same age with
similar potential playing a position where only one can play at a given time. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>4) Signing Bernier to a $2.9 million dollar contract has resulted in the Leafs current cap crunch.</b> It is embarrassing that the team
managed to conduct business this offseason while forgetting to keep enough money
lying around for top RFAs Cody Franson and Nazem Kadri. The question is whether
or not the Bernier trade resulted in an over investment of cap dollars between
the pipes.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To answer this, I took a look at <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/" target="_blank">Cap Geek</a> and their function
called <i>Positional Comparison</i>. Here you can compare cap hits across different
teams for the same position. Below are goaltender cap hits for the top and
bottom teams. (Note, dollars listed include all goalies on the current roster,
including injured reserve)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1. Calgary Flames $9.5 Million</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2. New Jersey Devils $8.5 Million</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3. New York Rangers $8.2 Million</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>19. Toronto Maple Leafs $4.7 Million</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
28. New York Islanders $3.8 Million</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
29. Philadelphia Flyers $3.2 Million</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
30. Florida Panthers $2.4 Million</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At 19<sup>th</sup> overall, the Leafs investment in net
actually under indexes compared to the rest of the league. The bleak cap
situation may be rooted within the forward group.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once Kadri is signed (one has to believe this will happen
eventually) the team will be in the top 10 of the league in cap dollars
allocated to forwards. Bringing this back to the point above, did Berniers
contract play a role in the lack of dollars available - the answer appears to be
no. Even with Beriner and Reimer under contract for 2013-14 the Leafs have
managed to stay below the league average for goaltenders. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Where Nonis may deserve some credit (and this feels weird to
even write) is if Bernier is able to have a strong season and establish himself
as the undisputed starter. In this scenario, the team would have two options
with James Reimer: shop him at the 2013-14 trade deadline, or trade his rights
in the offseason as an RFA. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Entering the 2014-15 season Bernier is still under contract
at his cap hit of $2.9 million. Assuming the Leafs signed a veteran back up or
promoted from within, their total investment in net would fall in the $4million
range. This would put them 27<sup>th</sup> out of 30 teams in terms of
goaltender investment. Allowing for greater financial freedom in other areas
(*cough* signing Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf). Additionally, Bernier would be
an RFA at the end of 2014, which may keep his next contract at a reasonable
number. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don’t mean to give Dave Nonis too much credit here. This
is the same fella that thinks David Clarkson will be effective in his mid 30s
and believes Tyler Bozak is a top line centerman (but he is so good at
faceoffs!). However, should Bernier assert himself as a bonafide starter the team
will reap rewards both on the ice and on the balance sheet. Furthermore, having Bernier has afforded the team increased security in net in the event Reimer's health or level of play falters. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of all the moves made this offseason, this is one that I can at least somewhat understand.
Whether or not it works out depends entirely on what Jonathan Bernier is, or
isn’t for Leafs this year and next. </div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-66116341182077061582013-07-17T19:43:00.003-04:002013-09-22T19:20:11.096-04:00"Hello Nonis"......Trying to Find the Positives During a Difficult Leafs Off-season<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
My feelings towards the Maple Leafs this off-season are
mixed, to say the least. On the one hand, the team finally broke through what
had been 9 seasons of futility and provided a new generation of fans with playoff memories. On the other, the off-season, one that
should have marked the continued build towards being a contender, has been marred by disappointment.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Heading into the summer break I felt like the roster had a number
of areas requiring upgrades, but possessed the flexibility to address most, if not
all, of those areas. My list of priorities went something like this:</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst">
</div>
<ul>
<li>A top 4 defenseman</li>
<li>A 1<sup>st</sup> or 2<sup>nd</sup> line centerman</li>
<li>Checking line winger</li>
<li>Improve forward prospects</li>
<li>Maintain cap flexibility</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
While I didn’t see adding a goaltender as a priority, I have
not taken umbrage with the Bernier deal the way some fans have. Scrivens, while
a serviceable backup, did not appear destined to challenge Reimer for the starting
job. Frattin showed signs of great improvement last year and looked like a nice
fit on the 3<sup>rd</sup> line. The 2<sup>nd</sup> round pick is certainly a
valuable commodity, but not something the Leafs absolutely needed to protect.
Bernier has long been considered the best backup goalie in the league and at
times was rumored to usurp Jonathan Quick as the Kings starter. Regardless of
how may feel about Reimer's talent, he has played in 45, 42 and 69 percent of
leaf games over the last 3 years. Health has been an issue, all but forcing
management to consider bringing in a quality goalie to work in tandem.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Where I started to scratch my head was while watching Dave
Nonis’ around the beginning of free agency. Buying out your most
talented centerman so that you can use the money to resign a player that is
deemed by both advanced stat gurus and Joe six pack hockey fans to be a below
average centerman is almost inexpiable. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Compounding the issue is that Nonis kyboshed his much
beloved cap flexibility by signing a near 30 year old power forward to a
contract possessing both significant term and dollars. I am extremely excited
for what Clarkson can bring to the lineup in years one and two of the deal, but
very few forwards of his ilk have been productive through their mid 30s. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Nonis left himself with limited dollars to sign a number of
pivotal RFAs, along with the contract of John Michael Liles which should have
been a formality as the team’s second and final compliance buyout after Mike Komisarek</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This year’s entry draft was considered by many to be the
deepest in nearly a decade. Fantastic value could be found throughout the first
15 picks, with a number of high end offensive prospects. I have to give the
team a lot of credit for their stockpiling of young defenseman. In Rielly,
Gardiner, Percy, Finn, and Blacker the team has a strong future. Conversely, the
Leafs system is running on empty when it comes to top 6 forwards. With players
like Nichushkin being taken at 10 and Max Domi at 12, I wish the Leafs
had been able to move up – trading in some of their existing prospects to leverage
a better pick than 21. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A look around league at other free agency signings does
little to curb my disappointment. This year saw the following contracts signed;
Derek Roy 1 year at $4million; Dustin Penner 1 year for $2million, and Viktor
Stalberg 4 years, $3 million per season. I don’t know if I would prefer to have
Derek Roy and Dustin Penner to Tyler Bozak and David Clarkson. I know for
certain I would rather have Roy, Penner, close to $3 million in cap space, and 9 less years of term in lieu of the Leafs players. It is perplexing to see other franchises making financially
prudent moves while Nonis felt compelled to shell out such lucrative deals.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reviewing my original off-season wish list we can see
that team didn't successfully address any of the stated needs. Now, despite the
fact I have spent nearly an entire post bemoaning the missteps of our fearless
leader Mr. Nonis there is still a silver lining, some reasons to believe in
this roster. Amidst all of the negative feelings that have arisen this past
month I had forgotten a number of the positives surrounding this roster.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Below are list of happy thoughts as we trudge through the remainder
of the offseason.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><b>Phil Kessel is kind
of good at hockey</b>. Back to back seasons in the top 10 of league scoring and still only 25.
There aren’t many players worth $8 million per season for 8 years but he is one
of them.</li>
<li><b>The winger core is one of the best
in the league</b>. Did we need David Clarkson? Not really. Does he make our wingers
one of the better groupings in the league? Yea, probably. A corps that contains
Lupul, JVR, Clarkson, and Kessel in the top six will no doubt be productive.</li>
<li><b>Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner
will provide offence from the backend</b>. It has been a while since the team had young, exciting, puck moving defensemen. You probably have to look back to Tomas
Kaberle in his prime years to find the most recent example. Gardiner was dominant
at times in the Boston series and all reports from prospects camp indicate Rielly
may arrive at the pro level this season. Few teams in the league have two
prospects of this caliber.</li>
<li><b>Nikolai Kulemin didn’t leave!</b> It
is unlikely I could have withstood the departure of both Grabovski and Kulemin
in the same offseason; the sheer pain it would have inflicted is too much to
imagine. Kulemin is an effective player who drives possession and rarely
receives the attention her deserves. He should slot in nicely on a shutdown
third line with Bolland and McClement.</li>
<li><b>We are not New Jersey Devil fans.</b>
It is hard not to feel for a franchise that in just over one year witnessed the
loss of Zach Parise, David Clarkson and Ilya Kovalchuk. With Elias entering his
final years and Broduer likely retiring at season’s end it is a time of transition
for the team. The Leafs certainly have made blunders, but the errors seem to
pale in comparison to what the Devils will be facing in the coming years. At
least they have Michael Ryder…</li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is little enjoyment to be taken from watching a 36 year old David
Clarkson try to keep up on your second line, or listening to radio call in
show champion Tyler Bozak’s 52 percent face-off percentage, but alas there is hope. So the next time an image of Dave Nonis’ face has you feeling
down about the Leafs, and life, just remember, there are still some exciting
pieces on this team.</div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-69239479519080928712013-07-10T19:43:00.005-04:002013-09-22T19:20:39.761-04:00For a Few Dollars More - A Look at David Clarkson's Contract<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The general consensus regarding David Clarkson’s new deal
seems to be something along the lines of – we are happy to have him in Toronto,
we just wish it wasn't for seven years. The yearly cap hit of $5.25 million feels
reasonable, if only it were for 4 or 5 years. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the ice Clarkson is almost certainly an upgrade to the team’s
forward group and affords Carlyle significant flexibility in how he decides to
set up the lines. He showed in New Jersey his ability to play in a variety of capacities, either as a top six scoring winger, or in a checking role. His special
teams impact has been made largely on the power play, as he has only played 6
minutes, in his entire career, shorthanded. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In trying to wrap my head around the contract and whether
it will represent a good investment for the team I think it is useful to
break up the deal into two parts – the first 4 years and the final 3.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The back portion of this deal, between 2017 to 2020 will likely
not be friendly to the Maple Leafs. Today’s NHL salary cap sits at $64,300,000,
meaning he represents 8.2 percent of the space. If we assume, for the
purpose of discussion, that the cap rises by 5 percent per year we can surmise that by
2017 the cap would sit at approximately $75,000,000. At that number Clarkson's salary
would account for 7% of the cap. A lesser number of course, but still a
substantial amount of the available dollars. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I wanted to look at the two parts of the deal in comparison
to other players who make in and around what Clarkson does annually. Using
these players as comparables we can begin to understand if David’s deal is in
line with others. Of course his contract was inked as an unrestricted free
agent, which often results in more considerable cap hits. To me this fact is
somewhat erroneous, since signing too many lucrative UFA contracts is a
surefire way to cap mismanagement. For the sake of this comparison we will not
consider whether the player signed a RFA or UFA deal, focusing only on how the
deal’s cap hit effects the team – essentially in a vacuum.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some comparables, courtesy of <a href="http://capgeek.com/" target="_blank">cap geek</a> are:</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7wiEpQXOy9189hTsd9tst-eBCixg8s_vm0Tf8ZbMw9jUpikUQcXFvN1nLBIbEGJmiqspaa1Kcm3yhxnfx91LnTNnOAnRASC2FXbPrk37SQ-ASmD7CeYQI3RvjftdxLUoDAp9AL9rG2w/s1600/Cap+Geek.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7wiEpQXOy9189hTsd9tst-eBCixg8s_vm0Tf8ZbMw9jUpikUQcXFvN1nLBIbEGJmiqspaa1Kcm3yhxnfx91LnTNnOAnRASC2FXbPrk37SQ-ASmD7CeYQI3RvjftdxLUoDAp9AL9rG2w/s400/Cap+Geek.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With the exception of David Krejci all of the contracts are
at least 5 years in length. The Evander Kane and Jamie Benn contracts have been
handed out as long term deals where there is a real possibility that both
players will outperform their cap hit at some point. Kane and Benn will be eligible
for unrestricted free agency at the age of 28 and no doubt will be in search of
a long term, big money deal.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Objectively, comparing dollar to dollar, I would prefer to
have either Benn or Kane in comparison to Clarkson. This is somewhat unfair,
since they were signed by their teams at the end of ELCs, however, for this
post we are looking at pure dollar value, irrespective of when the deal was
signed. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Joffrey Lupul is an interesting comparable - his annual cap hit felt warranted on the heels of a 66 game 2011-12 season
where he recorded 25 goals and 42 assistants, blossoming into one of the more offensively
gifted players in the league. However, the deal will carry Lupul into his mid
30s, that for a player that has struggled with injuries and consistency. I
would have preferred a 3 or 4 year deal if possible. It is difficult to say who
I would rather have of these two at the same cap figure, let’s call it a tie. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The two mammoth contracts on this list are that of Jeff
Carter and Marian Hossa. I am bit of a Hossa fanboy, considering him one of the
most underrated superstars of the 2000s and beyond. Having said that, this
contract represents significant risk for Chicago as Hossa moves into his mid to late 30s. With two Stanley cup wins, due in no small part to the presence of Hossa, it’s
is unlikely the Blackhawks are overly concerned with the long term
ramifications. Over the next year or so I would lean towards Hossa, seeing him
as top end player. However, Clarkson may represent the better value in years
2,3,4. For now I’ll have to call it wash, again. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the case of Carter we again have a team that was
successful in winning a cup with him playing a large role. At 28 he still
has, at least in theory, many productive years ahead of him. I don’t think he
was the type of player that should have commanded this type of term and
dollars. Saying that, he is significant talent that can do things on the ice
Clarkson likely can’t. Carter’s goal scoring over the past 5 seasons has been
elite, registering 46, 33, 36, 31 (pro-rated) and 44 (pro-rated). That level of
production to me makes him the better choice over Clarkson. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Lastly, we have the newly signed contract of Nathan Horton. The
seven year length of this contract feels head scratchingly (if thats a word) long for a player
who has struggled with serious concussion symptoms. Over the past 5 seasons Nathan has
only played over 67 games once. When at his best Horton can be an extremely effective
player, but to commit this kind of dollars and term felt overzealous on the
part of the Blue Jackets. I suppose they are a smaller market team, and attracting
free agents may be difficult, but I would have overpaid elsewhere. My
preference is David Clarkson, based in large part on the long term health concerns
surrounding Horton. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To sum up, of the 6 contracts I looked at Benn, Kane, and
Carter all appear to be more value than Clarkson. Lupul and Hossa's deals
moving forward are close to a tie in value, while I would take Clarkson’s
contract outright over the one signed by fellow UFA Horton. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This comparison, while admittedly not all encompassing (one mans opinion), seems to be somewhat in line with the prevailing belief that the Leafs overpaid to get what was the biggest fish in the pond that is free agency. If the salary
cap increases substantially there is a chance that Clarkson’s deal can shift to
a considerably lower percentage of the cap as his skills diminish and he takes
on a lesser role with the team.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Conversely, should the salary cap rise slowly, at or below 5% per year, this
contract could become increasingly painful for the Maple Leafs. Only time will
tell, perhaps we should all take a lesson from Dave Nonis and worry about the
future some other time... like in the future.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
“I’m not worried about six or seven right now….I’m worried
about one. And Year 1, I know we’re going to have a very good player. I believe
that he’s got a lot of good years left in him.” – Dave Nonis</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here’s hoping Dave.</div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-22486769968003095372013-07-08T21:20:00.003-04:002013-07-08T21:20:51.861-04:00My Take On The Leafs' Offseason So FarWhen you're a fan of a sports team, it seems like every offseason is more important than the last but this offseason really was a different animal than your usual summer for the Maple Leafs.<br />
<br />
The new CBA brought with it a pair of amnesty buyouts and there were no shortage of candidates on the Leafs' roster. Add to this a number of key RFAs, gaping holes on the blueline, and the team's best two players one year removed from Unrestricted Free Agency, and it's safe to say that this is an offseason like few others.<br />
<br />
With most of the dust of the offseason settled, here are my impressions of the Leafs' summer thus far.<br />
<br />
<strong>Leafs Trade Matt Frattin, Ben Scrivens, and a 2nd Round Pick for Jonathan Bernier</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
If you're wondering why the Leafs moved assets to acquire a goalie then you're probably not alone. James Reimer was the team's MVP last year and the primary reason why the team was able to break its playoff drought. That said, while a goalie upgrade wasn't a high priority, I do think that the Leafs got the better end of the trade.<br />
<br />
My concern with the deal is what it may mean as it pertains to management's belief in James Reimer. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on Reimer being the better goalie but it doesn't bother me at all to have two viable options. What <em>would</em> bother me is if Reimer weren't the leading candidate for the starting role heading into the 2013-'14 season.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<strong>Leafs Trade a 2nd Round Pick and Two 4th Round Picks For Dave Bolland</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
In a vacuum, I like the move. Bolland is a talented third line player who can play up in the lineup when injuries strike. He's gritty, a tight checker, and he'll spell some of the pressure on Jay McClement and the penaltykill. <br />
<strong></strong><br />
<strong>Leafs Buyout Mikhail Grabovski</strong><br />
<br />
This is the unfortunate consequence of the Bolland trade. After Carlyle mis-cast Grabovski primarily in a checking role last season, the writing was on the wall after the team acquired Bolland. Grabovski was bought out after one less than productive season. Grabovski played impossibly tough minutes and was buried in the defensive zone to start the vast majority of his shifts but he did seem to have lost a half step. I would have let Grabovski play out this season and considered whether or not to buy him out at that point. Buying out the Leafs' best centre over the last three years after one unproductive year was a big mistake, in my mind.<br />
<br />
<strong>Leafs Re-Sign Tyler Bozak</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
It took less money than I thought it would, but that doesn't mean I'm happy about it. I spent the better part of this season bemoaning Carlyle's reticence to play Kadri on the top unit and re-signing Bozak all but guarantees we'll all be subjected to more watching Kessel's centre stifle his offense. Too much money, too much term, and too many negative consequences.<br />
<br />
<strong>Leafs Sign David Clarkson</strong><br />
<strong></strong><br />
Too much money, too much term, and too many negative consequences. Clarkson is a good player who brings an element of physicality to the Leafs' top-6 which is nice. What are the consequences of such a longterm, lucrative deal? Well, for one thing, there's a very real chance that this will be Kulemin's final season as a Leaf. Kulemin is a UFA at year's end and with the vast majority of the salary cap's assumed growth earmarked for Phaneuf and Kessel extensions, there aren't enough dollars left. The team's other possession-monster winger, Clarke MacArthur, is already a casualty of the deal and with the team's depth at the wing, I suspect he wont be the last.<br />
<br />
There's still some offseason left but I can't say that I'm terribly optimistic about this team as it's presently constituted. They were lucky to have made the playoffs last year and I can't say that they've meaningfully upgraded the team this offseason. I like their goaltending and there's an opportunity for Carlyle to use players like Kadri and Gardiner more effectively but there isn't much evidence to support that belief. It's hard to fathom that the PK could be as good as they were last year and they'll need it to be.<br />
<br />
The long and the short of it is that this team still needs defense and a first line centre -- the same things we've needed since the puck dropped on the 2012-'13 season. Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-56546426858955629802013-07-05T07:38:00.002-04:002013-09-22T19:20:26.076-04:00Underrated and Unappreciated - Saying Farewell to Grabbo<div class="MsoNormal">
We here at BCP are deeply saddened by the departure of Mikhail<span class="apple-converted-space"><i><span style="background: white; color: #292929; font-family: "Georgia","serif";"> </span></i></span>Grabovski, on two fronts. Firstly, he was a heck of a player who when on his game was a dynamic second line center capable of playing in all situations. Secondly, neither one of us understand how to properly use Photoshop which means changing our blog header is going be a headache.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail has summed up the view of Leaf Nation:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>The Leafs bought out Grabovski’s contract on Thursday afternoon, spending a little more than $14-million to punt a player who had become incredibly divisive in Leafs Nation, primarily for his lack of offensive production.<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It was disappointing to watch Grabovski fall out of favor with many Leaf fans this season, while the majority of those in the blogging community, more attune with advanced stats the deeper metrics continued to support him. It is even more disappointing to believe the Dave Nonis would have actually bought out Grabovksi because of pressure from fans who decided that Mikhail 9 goals in the lockout shortened season made him expendable.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Listening to morning radio shows this year fans lambasted Grabbo daily, calling him for to be more productive on the offensive end, to help provide the ever valuable secondary scoring. Few analysts took the time to explain properly to the public that Grabovski spent the majority of his time on the ice with Jay McClement, Leo Komarov, and Nikolai Kulemin (courtesy <a href="http://hockey.dobbersports.com/frozenpool/" target="_blank">FrozenPool</a>). While I like Jay and Nikolai as players they do not possess the offensive talent of Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul, or James van Riemsdyk. Yet, almost inexplicably, Grabovski regularly had his goal and assist totals compared directly to that of players skating in the top six.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2011-12 Grabovski averaged just over 2 minutes each night on the power play. In 2010-11, a season in which he recorded 58 points, including 29 goals, he averaged over 3 minutes a game with the man advantage. This year his power play time continued to dwindle, finishing with an average of only 1:42 per game, being deployed primarily on the second unit or not at all.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Compounding the issue for Mikhail was where he started most shifts. According to <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=63&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f5=TOR&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#" target="_blank">Behind the Net</a> Grabovski started 36.7% of his shifts in the other team’s zone, the third lowest percentage of any player on the Leafs roster. Compare that to Phil Kessel (49.0%) and Joffrey Lupul (47.7%) and it is clear Grabbo was not being put in a position to contribute goals and assists. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All of this would have been fine had the team and Randy Carlyle simply explained that Mikhail's role had shifted to that of a defensive centerman. Grabovski being utilized as a shut down 3<sup>rd</sup> line center, playing important minutes against the oppositions best players. Helping to shield the less experienced Nazem Kadri from opposition he likely couldn’t manage in the defensive end. But they never did, choosing instead to let the growing negatively fester all season until it finally reached an end yesterday. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is most troublesome is the common theory that Grabovski wasn’t living up to his 5 year, $27.5 million dollar contract. I’m willing to admit that Grabovski was slightly overpaid. In an ideal setting his deal would have carried a cap hit in the 4.5 to 4.75 range. Was it worth losing a player with the diverse skill set of Grabovski over an $800,000 discrepancy in pay? My initial reaction has been no, especially if the dollars saved are earmarked for Tyler Bozak. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This post no doubt reads like an angry Leafs blogger venting his frustration over losing a favourite player, and that is to a degree factual. However, there are a number of circumstances under which I’m willing to forgive Nonis for this buyout, or at least understand his view. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Phil Kessel is due a contract extension sometime this coming season, a deal which will be 8 years in length and close to if not exceeding $8 million dollars a year. Additionally, Dion Phaneuf will be looking for a new contract, albeit not as lucrative, but at least $6 million and substantial term. If buying out Grabovski was a necessary move to make the contracts of these two core players work than I can least understand what lead to the decision, even if I cannot wholeheartedly support it. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Right now the Leafs center ice depth chart reads Kadri – Bolland – McClement – "some guy". That would be one of the lesser groupings in the league, at least on paper. It is unlikely that Nonis has completed his offseason makeover; we can only hope that there is still at least one move to come that will help round out the center ice position. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whatever free agency and the trade market bring the Leafs lost a significant player yesterday. We wish you the best Grabbo, you will be missed. </div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-54425124224190427432013-07-04T08:03:00.000-04:002013-07-04T08:03:01.080-04:00"$40 million in this bag right now and nobody gets hurt, I mean it!" - Tyler Bozak<div class="MsoNormal">
When the NHL fought to keep player contracts to fewer than 8 years (7 for UFAs leaving for a different team) I don’t imagine they expected Tyler Bozak to be one of the players discussing such a deal. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A friend asked how I felt about the contract demands and whether the Leafs should consider acquiescing to Mr. Bozak. My response is probably best summed up by Michael Scott:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<object class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="http://img.youtube.com/vi/w2V_ZVhgHzI/0.jpg" height="266" width="320"><param name="movie" value="http://youtube.googleapis.com/v/w2V_ZVhgHzI&source=uds" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://youtube.googleapis.com/v/w2V_ZVhgHzI&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It has been hard not to laugh a bit the last couple days at the expense of the Leafs soon-to-be former number one centerman. Asking for 5 million dollars a season for 8 years is almost inconceivable for a player who is considered among most hockey pundits to be best served as a third liner.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The proposed contract really only makes sense when we break it down into sub parts. Had he asked for 8 years at 1.75 million we could have understood his wanting long term financial security in lieu of a big pay day. Had Bozak requested 10 million a year over 2 seasons we could see his wanting to cash in on a short term deal - thereby forcing him to earn his next contract. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Neither seems to be the case. And with the recent acquisition of Dave Bolland is seems rather unlikely that Tyler Bozak has any leverage in this negotiation. The Leafs are capable of starting next season with Kadri – Grabovski – Bolland – McClement as the 4 players down the middle. There isn't a place for Bozak on this team anymore, and his absurd contract demands seem to be the explanation point on what was already going to be an unworkable situation. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It’s interesting to reflect on the Bolland trade now in the context of Tyler Bozak. Yes, it’s nice to no longer be handcuffed by our lack of center depth, allowing the team to dismiss Bozak's demands and finally cease the never-ending quest to anoint him a first line center. Conversely, the acquisition of Bolland has created a log jam of 2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd</sup> line centers on a team that desperately needed someone to play in the top six. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rumors have circulated this week that the signing of Toronto native David Clarkson is all but complete once the free agency period opens later this week. It’s difficult to argue with Clarkson’s production over the past 2 seasons, amassing 30 goals in 2012-13 and 15 in this ears truncated campaign. He has managed to morph his game from that of a prototypical 3<sup>rd</sup> line grinder into a useful player that can play across an entire lineup.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The potential issue lies in committing significant money and term to a player that is approaching 30 and plays a style of game that hasn't historically been conducive with aging. It is possible that Nonis turned over every stone in search of a centerman this off season and simply failed to land anyone of significance. As a substitute he addressed the need via trade with a Chicago team desperate to stay under the cap and through drafting the hulking six foot five Frederik Gauthier 21<sup>st</sup> in the draft. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Part of me wanted Nonis to bring in a Vincent Lecavalier or one of the pending 2014-15 free agents in Patrick Marleau or Joe Thornton. However, I can only imagine the price either Shark would have commanded, and the contract signed by Lecavalier is two years too long for a player in his mid 30s. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Nonis is successful in adding Clarkson and perhaps a 2<sup>nd</sup> or 3<sup>rd</sup> pairing defensemen (Scuderi, Ference…etc) than he will have addressed many of the teams needs, at least in earnest. Goaltending depth was an issue – he brought in Bernier. Bolland, to a degree, addresses the need down the middle. Clarkson, despite some concerns around his age and wear, would be a significant improvement to the team’s top 9 forwards. An additional top 4 defenseman would help alleviate some of the onerous minutes Dion Phaneuf has been forced to consume the past two seasons. Of course neither Clarkson nor a defenseman has transpired yet, but if you believe any of the news circulating this week it’s hard to think Nonis will stand pat in free agency, especially given the cap flexibility the team still possesses. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The old cliché says that a rising tide raises all boats. With some tinkering in a number of places Dave Nonis is working diligently to improve multiple facets of the roster, bit by bit. One of the outcomes of these improvements may be the departure of Tyler Bozak and his faceoff wizardry (or slightly above average-dry). And I’m quite alright with that. </div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-77870935651433022452013-06-25T21:09:00.001-04:002013-06-25T21:09:24.626-04:00Drafting By Position<em>The following is a re-post from a while back but with the draft coming up, I think it's worth re-visiting:</em><br />
<br />
About a week ago, I was talking with a friend about 2013 eligible draft prospect Darnell Nurse. He's huge and athletic and while I'm not a pro-scout, I'd guess that he's a guy with an awfully high ceiling. I suggested that some team that barely missed the playoffs was going to be awfully lucky to draft him and that I wouldn't even be surprised if he snuck into the top-10 on draft day. It was at that point that my friend suggested that taking a defenseman in the top-10 was a risky proposition.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We shot some names back and forth of forwards and defense who had worked out, where star players came from, Cam Barker, &c. &c. Are your odds better of getting a good player in the first round if you take a forward? At what point, if any, are defensemen generally safer picks? We couldn't really come to any reasonable conclusions without doing the work.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So with that, I set about putting together a spreadsheet with 10 years of draft data (1999 to 2008) where each pick in the first three rounds was categorized as an All-Star, an Impact Player, a Replaceable Player, or a Bust. For now, I've held fast to defining an All-Star strictly (must have actually been an All-Star) but I do think this analysis would benefit from a little more flexibility in this regard (ex. Hamonic and Subban are not All-Stars but Justin Williams and Alexander Frolov are.) An Impact Player is a top-6 forward or a top-4 defenseman, a Replaceable Player would be a guy who has predominantly been an NHLer but generally in a support role, and a Bust would be a guy who didn't have a significant NHL career. </div>
<div>
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<div>
The following charts represent the percentage of players who fall into the defined categories per player selected at those positions. In terms of raw numbers, roughly two forwards are drafted for every one defenseman.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtI7N-OggLhd9_JZjSueyTi7ezfLj46r7jQhcqzWdxGtWWt_nHzRpYvWHWfDxaDp0gcohcOLVIGoOJFPEOZaIv4WAp8mKC1gfrH7Fvgj89BmDakrd1f6YgjTBIYBdCD4gl1Z9IEp9hWNA/s1600/1st+Round+Forwards.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtI7N-OggLhd9_JZjSueyTi7ezfLj46r7jQhcqzWdxGtWWt_nHzRpYvWHWfDxaDp0gcohcOLVIGoOJFPEOZaIv4WAp8mKC1gfrH7Fvgj89BmDakrd1f6YgjTBIYBdCD4gl1Z9IEp9hWNA/s400/1st+Round+Forwards.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS2YNMsYyvJBXGZ06rmjdMkLB8uTTLb3SwDclRsU6KYr4nZkG27RFHtHtMBSDI4plGM_GfnOEVGIqrFjsNwoY2w5PN2uySs-FJY6dXgz2xIdpK9tq10F9ITZpSlV5xWA6Yu4r95t3AcNY/s1600/1st+Round+Defense.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS2YNMsYyvJBXGZ06rmjdMkLB8uTTLb3SwDclRsU6KYr4nZkG27RFHtHtMBSDI4plGM_GfnOEVGIqrFjsNwoY2w5PN2uySs-FJY6dXgz2xIdpK9tq10F9ITZpSlV5xWA6Yu4r95t3AcNY/s400/1st+Round+Defense.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The first round results were a little surprising. The blue segment represents players who fell in the All-Star range and Impact range combined. While the bust rate among defensemen selected was slightly higher than it was for forwards, the number of impact defensemen per defenseman taken actually outpaced forwards in the first round. Now again, given that this is done in percentage terms, there are more impact forwards taken than impact defensemen, but when you adjust the numbers to a 'per defenseman taken' and 'per forward taken', you see that a greater percentage of selected defensemen seem to provide meaningful contributions to their teams.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBdJ_mo2yE4UgCbqsRyQVyS5FTNROXKE9SV8g3OmrzerjAVP34aNtYbFaF_a7ickcQCv0fZ0gQJJT8CnPgIDV_tJkULQVzVWYMiHbx-pxVSTtzAyw_VtctLtCS_qBfFk8jalFCmLUkk90/s1600/2nd+Round+Forwards.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBdJ_mo2yE4UgCbqsRyQVyS5FTNROXKE9SV8g3OmrzerjAVP34aNtYbFaF_a7ickcQCv0fZ0gQJJT8CnPgIDV_tJkULQVzVWYMiHbx-pxVSTtzAyw_VtctLtCS_qBfFk8jalFCmLUkk90/s400/2nd+Round+Forwards.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZmGB9wU4r_3aQDjNDOJCnmAeJ5U2Qd4_yT1FL5OdwvHKwpWAhSBmgKVqnpa2j1oWZlJNYKJAfNIgT020kKSVWXk8NcL0Vz1SxI_F6oeuiI9XQlMINpYn2RC4wt8kyt1ux__7GHSlInEk/s1600/2nd+Round+Defense.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZmGB9wU4r_3aQDjNDOJCnmAeJ5U2Qd4_yT1FL5OdwvHKwpWAhSBmgKVqnpa2j1oWZlJNYKJAfNIgT020kKSVWXk8NcL0Vz1SxI_F6oeuiI9XQlMINpYn2RC4wt8kyt1ux__7GHSlInEk/s400/2nd+Round+Defense.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
The second round also sees a greater share of defensemen providing impact-level performance. This was a little less surprising based on the guesses that I made heading into the exercise. Take note of how high the bust rate is in the 2nd round (over 75% overall.) </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieUfioqlX1q3R3pv-GNPTp0UwVdRJLXTfLsHWNSY-7UbtaX25WGePrSSAI1Y_2phLzS7b2YPd_tD8LoL7NSIQzkV0gS5T0KuXYe0-nLvUjnLxnbQbts-nO_URl0SQB45ls0yzV-D-W1U4/s1600/3rd+Round+Forwards.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieUfioqlX1q3R3pv-GNPTp0UwVdRJLXTfLsHWNSY-7UbtaX25WGePrSSAI1Y_2phLzS7b2YPd_tD8LoL7NSIQzkV0gS5T0KuXYe0-nLvUjnLxnbQbts-nO_URl0SQB45ls0yzV-D-W1U4/s400/3rd+Round+Forwards.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZWnU-G1YAdKbhyphenhyphengc2ieO6YO9a3Udd_vQX1fKj-EtOPfrVuL6V7nn1AzU9wDz3fOmZpo68aWDH85JksYraqWGR_cFBSWrfn8ij5ZWPZPaVshrH8a5AzLM325HI1318c-cGhk2YapeAJA0/s1600/3rd+Round+Defense.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZWnU-G1YAdKbhyphenhyphengc2ieO6YO9a3Udd_vQX1fKj-EtOPfrVuL6V7nn1AzU9wDz3fOmZpo68aWDH85JksYraqWGR_cFBSWrfn8ij5ZWPZPaVshrH8a5AzLM325HI1318c-cGhk2YapeAJA0/s400/3rd+Round+Defense.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Again, take note of the bust rate. Also, there's a greater proportion of those who 'make it' who are replacement level here. Pretty tough to find a top-6 or top-4 guy by the time you get to the 3rd round. Once again, we see that the numbers seem to slightly favour defensemen.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
So what does this data mean? Well, first of all, in isolation it suggests that not enough defensemen are being taken in the first or second rounds. If the number of defensemen selected in early rounds were to increase, we would likely see these numbers come together a bit. Secondly, it could mean that GMs believe that drafting an impact forward is more valuable than an impact defenseman. While I'm pretty comfortable, generally speaking, with the categories I employed, what they don't take into account is the order of magnitude that these players impact their teams -- as far as these numbers are concerned, Malkin and Frolov are the same guy.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
What I am comfortable saying is that I prefer that my team take a defenseman over a forward in the second round. The number of cases where we see ultra-high impact players selected in the second round is limited and in instances where it occurs, those players generally seem to be defensemen. Not only this, but the numbers pretty clearly suggest that your odds of getting any kind of asset are better if you take a defenseman in the second round rather than a forward.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Moving forward, it may be interesting to break apart the first round into pick-segments and depending on how well received this post is, I may take that on. For the time being though, it's safe to say that I wouldn't be avoiding a guy like Darnell Nurse with a pick in range of tenth overall, certainly not on the basis of the position that he plays.</div>
Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-48620142435267522882013-05-14T16:18:00.001-04:002013-05-14T16:18:49.355-04:00Maple Leafs Playoff ReviewWhat a series.<br />
<br />
As disappointing as last night's collapse was, the mere fact of Toronto having pushed Boston to overtime in a game 7 is cause for celebration for fans of the Maple Leafs. No team has given this edition of the Leafs as much trouble as the Bruins and yet there we were, with them until the end, pushing Boston to the brink of elimination, and though it's the Leafs who find themselves on the outside looking in, there's something creditable in the way that they acquitted themselves during this year's playoffs -- something we'll hope to carry forward into next season.<br />
<br />
While seven games isn't a sample size worthy of hard and fast conclusions, it does give us a glimpse through the window of what some of our players are or aren't capable of. There were some surprises during the playoffs and some disappointments; some things to be excited for and some causes for concern. Below are my observations on what we saw from our boys during the second-season.<br />
<br />
<strong>Phil Kessel, Demon Hunter - </strong>It's indisputable that Phil Kessel had struggled mightily to produce results against the Bruins during his time with the Leafs and while many people wrongly attributed these struggles to vacuous psychological shortcomings, the truth is that lining up against a Norris-calibre defenseman is hard on everyone. During this series, Kessel was able to exorcize his demons and put to bed any fears that Leafs fans may have had that Kessel wilts under pressure. He was almost certainly our best forward in the playoffs and will be worth every penny he earns on the extension that we'd all better hope he signs this offseason.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<strong>Primetime Reimer </strong>- As good as Kessel was, there's no doubt as to who takes home the honour of series MVP. James Reimer had a marvelous series and if there are any detractors left then they probably aren't people who warrant listening to. True, there was the odd issue with rebound control but there's no doubting Reimer's abilities as a puck-stopper and his athleticism was on full display this series as well and one would think that there wont be any Luongo rumours this offseason. Reimer was great in the regular season and great in the playoffs -- he's a guy we can rely on moving forward.<br />
<br />
<strong>From the Doghouse to the Penthouse -</strong> Jake Gardiner spent the majority of the season in Randy Carlyle's bad books for some inexplicable reason and was a healthy scratch in the opening game of the series. After drawing into the second game of the series, Gardiner finished second to only Dion Phaneuf in icetime per game at just over 23 minutes a night and was among the top performers in blue and white. As with Reimer, his game wasn't without its faults but the sum of his play was a big positive for the Leafs and I don't suspect that we'll see his name as a healthy scratch very often next season. Gardiner is a high ceiling defenseman and he's got himself on track after the concussion issues he dealt with to start the season.<br />
<br />
<strong>Should He Stay Or Should He Go -</strong> There were probably four players whose careers as Maple Leafs had a lot riding on this series; JM Liles, Tyler Bozak, Cody Franson, and Clarke MacArthur. <br />
<br />
Based on the company line on Bozak, the Leafs sound like they'd already made up their minds to keep him and if you went into this series with a preconceived notion of what Bozak was as a player, this series probably didn't tip the scales. Bozak was decidedly average in the series as a whole and if you're the type who puts a lot of stock in faceoffs, then the team's performance in the circle with Bozak out of the lineup would lead you to believe that Toronto needs him. Outside of that, Bozak was pretty replaceable when he went down, and the Leafs probably had two of their best three games in the series while he was out of the lineup.<br />
<br />
Cody Franson is a guy that I was very much on the fence about heading into the playoffs. I like his offensive game, in particular his ability to get the puck on net through traffic, but his defensive lapses seemed to be increasingly frequent as the regular season wore on. In the playoffs I thought Franson improved his defensive play and dialed his physicality way up. He's never going to be a top-end defensive player but he did enough during this series to convince me that he's a guy I'd like to keep around.<br />
<br />
Clarke MacArthur, like Jake Gardiner, was the irrational target of Randy Carlyle's ire. MacArthur put up 3 points in the 5 games he played and brought the consistent, all around game that Leafs fans have come to expect from him. I get the sense that he isn't in the Leafs longterm plans but if I were Nonis, he'd be in mine.<br />
<br />
John-Michael Liles had a Bozak-esque series in the sense that he probably didn't do anything that would change whatever opinion you had of him coming into the series. Did he do enough to keep the team from using an amnesty buyout on him or to convince some other team to take on his contract? Tough to say.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Dream - </strong>There may be no player who will benefit more from this year's postseason experience than Nazem Kadri who looked very nervous in the first two games of the series, turning the puck over regularly, but became the offensively dynamic player we saw during the regular season in the series' final games. Kadri picked his spots physically, drew penalties, and was dangerous in the offensive zone and his play against a team with the level of toughness that the Bruins possess bodes well for future playoff appearances. The knock on Kadri has often been his size but I don't think there was ever a time in this series where he looked intimidated nor did he get pushed around. It looks to me like Kadri's skills will translate to the tighter checking playoff game in the future which is a comforting sign for Leafs fans.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Defense -</strong> To the surprise of very few, Toronto's Achilles' Heel was their defense. Reimer faced an average of just under 39 shots per game during the series which is asking way too much of your goalie. If watching Boston play has taught us anything, it's the value of having a truly elite defenseman and just how significant the gap is between the truly elite (Chara) and the All Star-calibre (Phaneuf). Having a dominant player like Chara on the ice for 50% of the icetime at even strength was a huge advantage for the Bruins.<br />
<br />
The question of what needs to happen to this defense is a tricky one. Landing one guy of Phaneuf's level or better would probably be enough but how much can we improve this group if that guy isn't available? Gunnarsson should be better provided his hip heals, Gardiner played at a high level in each of his games, and Franson was pretty competent. I suppose adding a 3 or 4 defenseman makes this team better but is that really going to shave 7-10 shots per game? The only solution that I can come up with is to add a high impact defenseman and to do so with the free agent crop being what it is this offseason means that Nonis will have to look to the trade market. What kind of assets should we be comfortable parting with if it meant adding a Keith Yandle? Or do you stay the course and hope that Rielly is an impact defender sooner rather than later? I'm glad that I'm not the guy who needs to answer those questions.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Team's Streakiest Player -</strong> Phil Kessel is consistently labelled streaky but to me, that seems to be based on results more so than his actual play on the ice. If you're looking for a guy who actually looks like a completely different player on a night to night basis, I think you'd have to point to JVR. There were times where he looked like a first line winger and the kind of player who could will a team to a victory and then there were games where you forgot that he was even dressed. Possible that he's playing with an injury, possible that he's more susceptible to being shutdown by tough matchups, but for whatever reason, JVR was Jekyll and Hyde for the majority of the season and that carried forward into the playoffs. Hopefully he'll be able to lay off the serum for the entirety of next season and be the player we saw in the early stages of this year.Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-89425046639262622142013-05-11T16:53:00.002-04:002013-09-22T19:20:55.156-04:00A Burgeoning X-Factor: Jake Gardiner I'm not much of football fan. I'll watch the sports centre highlights and what not, but it's rarely my first choice for TV viewing these days. I understand the basic fundamentals of the sport and generally how the points are accrued, the difference between on field positions, and the varying types of penalties (except for holding, which appears to occur on every play of every game).<br />
<br />
In the fall of 2004, while not a fan of football or the NFL, I became an ardent supporter of Kanas City Cheifs wide receiver Dante Hall, commonly known to many as the 'X-Factor'. For uninitiated Dante Hall was the leagues preeminent kick off and punt return specialist between 2003 and 2007.<br />
<br />
He was an absolute joy to watch, special teams plays become games within the game, complete spectacles to behold. At any given moment Hall could zig, or zag, or some combination of both, while bounding towards the oppositions end zone. I was flat out mesmerized, that feeling of aw and anticipation every time he was on the field is something I'll never forget. After watching nearly all 16 Chiefs regular season games that season I can't recall the name of a single player outside of Hall, but I can remember vividly how I felt.<br />
<br />
While watching Jake Gardiner and the Maple Leafs in Game five on Friday night I found myself reminiscing about Dante Hall. That feeling of imagination and expectation is something that Gardiner's play conjured up in me during the game. Much like Dante's ability to completely transform the momentum of a football game Gardiner seemed almost omnipresent in Friday's game.<br />
<br />
I've tried to watch the 22 year old blueliner closely throughout the series, to better understand both his rave reviews as an offensive catalyst and his limitations defensively.<br />
<br />
First off, his defence. Yes, it could be better. But before we label him an all round poor defender it's important to understand no defenseman is all things in all situations. At times throughout the series Gardiner has displayed splendid composure in the defensive end, maintaining his body position against the significant girth of players like Lucic, Horton, and Thornton. The root of many pundits criticism is that he can be prone to poor decision making. This has manifested itself at times in the form of bad pass, the wrong choice for outlet of the puck, or failing to clear the puck from the defensive zone. The good news, for fans, is that these limitations appear more mental than physical. Decision making is something that can be worked with the coaching staff and through on ice instruction and video review. With only 90 total games of NHL experience it's fair to say that he will continue to learn and the nuances of the pro game and hopefully minimize those errors. <br />
<br />
In the offensive zone, Gardiner has shown at both the AHL and NHL level, that he could be something special. Last year, as a rookie with the Maple Leafs he amassed 30 points (7 goals, 23 assists) in 75 games. This year, while playing with the Marlies throughout the lockout, he had 31 points (10 goals, 21 assists) in 43 games.<br />
<br />
Over the past 2 games Gardiner has shown a Neidermyerian (this may not be a word) ability to drive a teams offense from the back end. Judging from his ice time during that time, 24:05 and 27:45, Randy Carlyle has been warming to his style of play. He's made a number of slick outlet passes from within the Leafs zone to a streaking forward on Boston's side of center. Allowing players like Kessel and Lupul to maintain their momentum and enter the zone with speed.<br />
<br />
When carrying the puck himself, Gardiner has proven to be devastatingly elusive to the Bruins. His skating stride and lateral agility forces the opposition to give him space, lest they be beaten to either side. When Jake possess the puck in the Leafs zone you can see how difficult it is for Bruins forwards to press him. He will routinely look up ice, insinuating a pass, only to turn, or pivot, leaving the defender off balance. If you look closely you can see how well Gardiner uses his shoulders to mask his intentions, dipping them to either side to ward off defenders and confuse them as to his intentions.<br />
<br />
With the possible exception of Phaneuf the Maple Leafs defensive corps doesn't typically carry the puck through the neutral zone to generate an attack. Choosing to instead dump the puck in along the boards, or pass off to forwards. Gardiner, however, routinely takes the puck into the zone, thus creating odd man rushes and generating possible scoring chances. He has done a great job of finding the right player at the right time with deft passes upon entering the attacking zone.<br />
<br />
The challenge for the coaching staff moving forward is to help Gardiner blend his offensive risk taking with his responsibilities as a defenseman. The most successful example for Gardiner to emulate today is Ottawa's Erik Karlsson. Another player with whom fans have taken umbrage in the past for his lack luster defensive play. Over the last 2 seasons Karlsson has successfully maintained his offensive flair without compromising the teams defensive needs.<br />
<br />
I by no means believe that Garinder has become "must see TV" around the NHL. Dante Hall, during his stretch of dominance, was a star across the entire NFL. But what we have witnessed from Jake this post season, that feeling I've gotten when he has the puck, you can't help but wonder what he could become in the future.<br />
<br />
The Maple Leafs success or failure on Sunday night will hinge on a number of factors. But the one that most excites me, the one I'll be watching most astutely, it's number 51, Mr. Gardiner.<br />
<br />
Go Leafs Go!<br />
<br />Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-51301799175303452832013-05-05T12:16:00.000-04:002013-05-05T18:47:35.567-04:00The Leafs Hybrid Approach to Beating the Bruins – Using Speed and Pugnacity At one time or another in our lives, most likely during adolescence, we’ve all experienced what it’s like to be bullied. This bullying can range from simple teasing, a swirly in a nearby toilet or something more egregiously bad.<br />
<br />
<br />
What amazes me about bullying is the strategy sometimes employed by parents in trying to curtail the bullying. The answer, in many cases is “If he hits you, stand up for yourself and hit him back – he’ll leave you alone after that”<br />
<br />
This I never quite understood. In most cases (at least from what I have seen) the bully tends to be a significantly stronger or meaner kid than the one suffering the bullying. Which means if the smaller victim were to punch the larger aggressor in the nose the odds are he’s going to get walloped pretty hard back. Suffice to say we as a society need to institute better methods of addressing bullying, but since this is a hockey blog we’ll park the social commentary for now.<br />
<br />
We all understood that physical intimidation and to a degree, on ice bullying, were going to play a role in the Leafs-Bruins series. For the past 3 or 4 years the bruins have been, in the opinion of many, the biggest, nastiest, meanest team in the NHL. This is born in large part from their roster containing both Zdeno Chara and Milian Lucic, who are able to do a bit of everything on the ice. <br />
<br />
In game #1 the Leafs players attempted to punch the Bruins in the nose, metaphorically and a couple of times literally. The Bruins played a physical game and Leafs tried to match them, finishing every check and engaging in every possible post whistle scrum. In one instance Cody Franson abandoned his position as the lone remaining defender to throw a big hit, leading to a Boston goal. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
With both Orr and McLaren in the lineup for game 1 Carlyle seemed determined to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Bruins and see if he could beat them at their game. Carlyle’s two prominent roughians finished with a combined 16 minutes of ice time, compared to their season average of 11.5. This is something the Bruins crave, because in the end few, if any teams, have a roster that can match the sheer size and physicality of the Bs. The possible exception would be either of the St. Louis Blues or Los Angela’s Kings. <br />
<br />
In the 2011 Cup finals the Vancouver Canucks were able to have some success against Boston by staying disciplined and using their league best power play (24.4% in the regular season, 20.4% in the post season) to penalize the bruins for their feisty play. The Leafs by no means have the same level of elite power play but the strategy and template is one they seemed to employ in game #2.<br />
<br />
The one asset the Leafs ultilized marverlously in game 2 was their forwards distinct speed advantage over Boston’s defense. A grouping of Chara, Seidenberg, McQuaid, Boychuk and Redden on the back end provides ample opportunity to expose their lack of quickness. It’s probably unfair to call Chara “slow” as he has one of the most unique skill sets in the league, combining size and puck handling in a way not seen since Pronger. Redden, while a smooth skater in his younger years is nearing the age of 36, and appears to be slowing somewhat. Their team is built splendidly to defend against the cycle and gain pucks along boards where their size is an asset. If the Leafs can continue to generate speed through the neutral zone and push the pace against the Bruins defense they’ll be able to score more goals off the rush. <br />
<br />
Last night, we witnessed a Leafs team that was skating and pushing the play in the right direction. Both the JVR and Kessel goals were a direct result of team quickness and the inability of Boston to keep pace. The insertion of Jake Gardiner and Matt Frattin buoyed the overall team speed and seemed to create a more balanced attack. Throughout the evening Carlyle mixed and matched his lines numerous times in an effort to release Kessel from Chara's rather large shadow. Had the team dressed both tough guys again they may have been more limited in how much line shuffling could be done.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihOn6Zgz5C9LC_75pGfe-K0uylBOvjAhlMb4HYNlM2uj_DGmBsABuX4wR85hA5ulA9x-TBeYPYigzgZBZXXKBevYkaFACOwLuE7zkEZityU2R56gJUI2Ssad5sCJTY-U94RWZv-nQVbg/s1600/Grabbo.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" lua="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihOn6Zgz5C9LC_75pGfe-K0uylBOvjAhlMb4HYNlM2uj_DGmBsABuX4wR85hA5ulA9x-TBeYPYigzgZBZXXKBevYkaFACOwLuE7zkEZityU2R56gJUI2Ssad5sCJTY-U94RWZv-nQVbg/s320/Grabbo.bmp" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="border: currentColor;">
I don’t mean to say the Leafs weren’t a physical bunch in Game #2, because they certainly were. But it was the kind of toughness that we crave; fighting hard for loose pucks, battling in front of the opposition net, playing physical on defense along the boards. Near the end of the game Grabovksi finished a hard check on Milian Lucic that almost knocked the Vancouver native on his rear end. It was a fantastic moment to watch and was indicative of what I liked all game from the Leafs. Grabbo moving his feet, playing a fast brand of finesse hockey while still finishing his check when needed. </div>
<div style="border: currentColor;">
<br /></div>
<br />
Colton Orr didn’t register a fight in game #2, but landed powerful body checks on Zdeno Chara and was an absolute load to manage in front of Tuukka Rask. That’s the kind of toughness a team can always use and I much preferred watching Colton contribute in that manner, than if he had fought Shawn Thornton for the umpteenth time.<br />
<br />
If the Leafs can continue the trend of game #2, blending toughness with team speed and finesse, they could be poised for success in game #3. While the team is still an underdog in this series, they showed on Saturday night that there exists a formula for success against the Bruins, and it doesn’t necessarily have to involve Colton Orr punching anyone in the nose.<br />
<br />
Go Leafs Go!<br />
<br />Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-58446159361902393212013-04-28T16:26:00.000-04:002013-04-28T16:35:33.634-04:00Manufacturing Goals in the Post-Season – The Power Play<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
This week will mark the first playoff appearance by the
Maple Leafs in nearly 10 years. While the act of simply extending the season
past April has many proclaiming this year a success, there’s no doubt that fans
would also enjoy a playoff round win as the proverbial cherry on top of any
already thrilling year. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After reading a number of articles over the last week it
appears the Leafs need a myriad of different tools in order to win in the postseason, chief among them: confidence, momentum, toughness, focus, enthusiasm,
gumption, quick-starts, effort, mental fortitude, and concentration.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While those things are critical ingredients for any Hollywood
portrayal of a sporting event, the winner of a hockey game is only 50% of the time the team that
spews the greatest number of platitudes. The winner, almost without exception,
is the team that manages to score the most goals. As hockey, at it’s very core,
has always been, and remains, a goal scoring competition.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The website <a href="http://quanthockey.com/">quanthockey.com</a> provides a chart (shown below)
that compares the average number of goals per game in an NHL regular versus
post season game. Throughout nearly the entire history of the league goal
scoring has seen a decrease going into the playoffs. There are some exceptions,
most notably in the 1950s where scoring seemed to increase in the post season.
However, during the modern era of the league goals seem to be scored less
frequently when the games matter most.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ6H-8GajfrfPiC5yToTxSVkPKnZhax_TQiY7uJyUa-NaihokaN_Jb2gHciUMl_NJSas0KsDgbn8s6OQ2DWJNCzbuC0gShS33ci9ubBwdFByivOoXWu6k0hzR61a5bsNfAgvXs8vtLHQ/s1600/NHL-Average-Goals-per-Game.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ6H-8GajfrfPiC5yToTxSVkPKnZhax_TQiY7uJyUa-NaihokaN_Jb2gHciUMl_NJSas0KsDgbn8s6OQ2DWJNCzbuC0gShS33ci9ubBwdFByivOoXWu6k0hzR61a5bsNfAgvXs8vtLHQ/s400/NHL-Average-Goals-per-Game.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
We can ascribe this dip in goal production to a number of different
factors, the two I most agree with being 1) Teams simply check more vigorously,
with players putting a greater focus on two way play and ensuring that they are
more committed to defensive tactics and systems 2) Coaching staffs are able to
better game plan against the opposition over a 4 to 7 game series. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The question is how can the Leafs continue to manufacture
goals and mitigate, as best they can, the factors that lessen goal production
in the playoffs? The challenges faced during 5 on 5 even strength play will
differ significantly from that of special teams. The Leafs managed a power play
percentage of 18.7% in during the regular season, 14<sup>th</sup> best in the
NHL. Herein lies the best opportunity for the team to produce goals while
avoiding the tight checking of even strength. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The team’s offence on the power play has been more balanced
than some teams, with no player amassing more than 6 goals and seven with
greater than 3 tallies. Below is a list of the Leafs top powerplay goal
producers:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Phil Kessel – 6</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Nazem Kadri – 5</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
James Van Reimsdyk – 5</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tyler Bozak – 4</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cody Franson – 3</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dion Phaneuf – 3</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Joffrey Lupul – 3 </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Watching the games of late we can anecdotally surmise what
has been working for the Leafs; Franson and Phaneuf have been getting well-timed, hard shots through from the blue line, forcing the opposing team’s
forwards to over commit on point coverage; Kessel has been able to generate
space and create opportunities from the half wall; JVR and Lupul (when healthy
or not suspended) have been driving the net and helping to create rebounds and
second chances.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During the final few games of the regular season Carlyle
experimented with Kadri and Kessel playing on the same line (more out of
necessity than imagination with Bozak injured). The chemistry was palpable
between the two, with Kadri possessing the elite passing ability Kessel hasn’t had
in a linemate since Marc Savard in Boston. Looking to the playoffs, it would be
behoove Carlyle to at the very least pair Phil and Nazem together on the first powerplay unit. A forward set up of Kessel on the half wall, Kadri near the icing
line, and Lupul/JVR hovering in front could certainly be potent.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The more limited scoring opportunities during even strength
will make capitalizing on special teams paramount to success in the post season.
If the team can continue to generate shots from the point and utilize Kadri and
Kessel from the half wall and behind the net the Leafs should carry forward the
production they enjoyed during the regular season. </div>
Darren Khttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313302517271339169noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-24999314258024803782013-04-24T14:01:00.000-04:002013-04-26T09:00:29.418-04:0010 Playoff Thoughts for the Toronto Maple LeafsBlue Chip Prospects started churning out articles in May of 2010. When we first started out, the blog was more general hockey-related stuff and we spent a fair bit of our time just making fun of other teams and their fans. Over the years, we've become increasingly focused on the Leafs and, in my opinion, found our niche in one of the best blogging communities the internet has to offer. <br />
<br />
Before I get going, I'd like to say a quick thank you to the guys over at <a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/">Pension Plan Puppets,</a> <a href="http://mapleleafshotstove.com/">Maple Leafs Hot Stove,</a> <a href="http://vintageleafmemories.blogspot.ca/">Vintage Leaf Memories,</a> and <a href="http://hopeinthebigsmoke.ca/">Hope in the Big Smoke</a> for all of their support. In addition to the work going on by the group at <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/">The Leafs Nation</a>, the guys who contribute on these sites are all bright, insightful individuals who have pushed me to understand hockey in a more complete way and they've all shown BCP a tremendous amount of support over the years, for which I'm tremendously grateful. The community of Leafs bloggers is a group that I'm very proud to be a part of.<br />
<br />
When I started blogging 4 years ago, this was the post that I wanted to write: A collection of thoughts on the state of the team as they head into the playoffs. It was pretty clear at the time that I wouldn't be writing this post about the 2010 Leafs, but I sure didn't think I'd have to wait until 2013. As I put pen to pad (or finger to keyboard) the Leafs have three games remaining before facing what looks like either Boston or Montreal and I think I can safely speak for all of you when I say, "PLAYOFFS!!1"<br />
<br />
Here are a few things that are on my mind as we inch closer to hockey's second season.<br />
<br />
1) Doesn't Mikhail Grabovski strike you as precisely the kind of player who was made for playoff hockey? Grabbo is, for my money, one of the better two way centres in all of hockey and he's the kind of guy who would put his face through the boards if he thought it would help his team. On a <a href="https://twitter.com/LeafMatters">Leaf Matters</a> podcast a little while ago, <a href="https://twitter.com/APetrielli">Anthony Petrielli</a> said that he thought Grabovski was the toughest player on the Leafs and I have a hard time arguing the point. I worry that he may continue to get under-utilized in the playoffs but if he gets the icetime that I feel he deserves, I think he'll emerge as a more mainstream hero among Leaf fans.<br />
<br />
2) James Reimer has been stealing games for the Leafs all year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Leafs' playoff run lasts longer than most expect because of it. You don't need to delve too deeply into the aforementioned blogs to find a post that laments how badly the Leafs have been outshot this year which means the reasons they're in the playoffs are 1) a lucky shooting percentage, and 2) James Reimer being one of the better goalies in the NHL this season. I've written more extensively on Reimer <a href="http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.ca/2013/04/james-reimer-is-very-good-goalie.html">here</a> so I wont go on a long diatribe but suffice to say that in addition to being an A+ person, James Reimer has developed into a goalie deserving of our trust.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
3) Does size matter in the playoffs? As often as we're reminded that the Leafs are among the league leaders in fighting majors, the Leafs' skilled group of forwards are still undersized relative to many of their potential playoff opponents. I've often opined that team toughness is more important that lobbing a line of face-punchers over the boards for 6 minutes a game and I think the Leafs are still outclassed in this regard. If we play Montreal then I'm not terribly worried about it but a seven game series against physical Bruins, Capitals, Rangers or even Pittsburgh would be a real challenge for the group. I'll be interested to see how they cope.<br />
<br />
4) Phil Kessel's reputation in the mainstream hinges disproportionately on what he does in the next few weeks. Legends and goats are made in the playoffs and Kessel's detractors, for want of statistical evidence, usually turn to the tired "disappears in big games" trope. I've often argued that not getting results against Zdeno Chara and historically excellent goaltending doesn't make a winger a choker and this may be Kessel's chance to put those fears to rest. Kessel's competitiveness is really underrated in a lot of circles and I think that barring a first round matchup against Chara, Leafs fans will be pleasantly surprised with what we see from our All-Star.<br />
<br />
5) Wherefore art thou, defense? All year I've been whining about this and all year James Reimer has made guys like Fraser, Kostka, and to a lesser extent Franson look better than they are. With the spotlight on every move that this team makes, I wonder if the Leafs' D might finally get exposed for the liability they are. If the Leafs are eliminated early, I suspect it will be this and not their lack of experience that's the cause.<br />
<br />
6) Entitlement or experience? Hope in the Big Smoke recently <a href="http://hopeinthebigsmoke.ca/?p=3398">wrote a piece</a> about how the whole "end of the entitlement culture" narrative that some have been preaching is more of a myth than a reality. Carlyle strikes me as a guy who favours experience and as HITBS suggests, he certainly has his favourites. I'm not the type to discount the value of experience and the effect that it can have on a team full of playoff first timers but I do hope that Carlyle makes better judgments on the guys who are actually making valuable contributions. If Kadri and Gardiner play up to their capabilities, I sure hope that Carlyle notices and rewards them for it.<br />
<br />
7) Duck, duck, goose. Guessing which tough guy and how many of them Carlyle will put into the lineup in the playoffs is an important question but it's anyone's guess at this stage. Dressing fighters in favour of roleplayers seems especially costly when the games are so important and mistakes are magnified. I don't mind the idea of putting one of Orr or (preferably) McLaren in the lineup but I think it's a mistake to play both. And, to my way of thinking, better to have those guys take an instigator on a guy who's taking liberties with Kessel or Kadri than to square off with some comparable scrub on the other side. When Orr grabbed Kaleta against Buffalo, it really did seem to straighten him out and with our PK as effective as it's been this year, keeping our skilled guys healthy is probably worth the two minutes.<br />
<br />
8) The playoffs are a war of attrition. The Leafs have been a relatively healthy team this year but Lupul has missed significant time and is just getting his legs back under him while Gunnarsson has been playing hurt all year. Having those two on the top of their game and keeping the rest of the guys healthy will be crucial to the team's success. If Dion Phaneuf should happen to get hurt at any point in the playoffs, I'm loathe to think of who on this team would be responsible for his minutes.<br />
<br />
9) Home ice advantage? We all know that for a packed house, the ACC isn't exactly the loudest building in the NHL but this team hasn't been in the playoffs for so long that I wonder if we may see people wearing their ties more like Brian Burke than Gordon Gekko. The price of tickets will probably keep a lot of "real" fans out of the building which is a shame but surely it wouldn't be seen as crass or vulgar for some of the lower bowl to let loose a little bit, given the occasion. I could see things going either way on this one but I really hope it's more ScotiaBank Place Leafs fans than Quiet Night at the ACC Leafs fans.<br />
<br />
10) The atmosphere. It's hard to remember exactly what it was like when the Leafs were last in the playoffs. The thing that I'm probably the most excited for is to see the mood around town on game days; the people wearing Leafs jerseys on their way to the office, the flags whipping in the wind on the 400. This is a celebration of hockey and I really hope that we haven't forgotten how to enjoy the party.Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-88570641216880807752013-04-22T12:12:00.001-04:002013-04-22T12:12:25.208-04:00Six Seasons And A Playoff Appearance!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvCsdwCvk7A-K5sJ5-Z0-8iv1RqoEtBiEJOikf5KaL6VnU36kvwe73Z5h0y68DwvfaYxlEytkoSAAay-cZ4JD60zS9elu2ysLGPRmvdYU9CWXHSZyD4zf39OFucMslopRHm2bLbF0GG2A/s1600/LeafsCommunity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvCsdwCvk7A-K5sJ5-Z0-8iv1RqoEtBiEJOikf5KaL6VnU36kvwe73Z5h0y68DwvfaYxlEytkoSAAay-cZ4JD60zS9elu2ysLGPRmvdYU9CWXHSZyD4zf39OFucMslopRHm2bLbF0GG2A/s400/LeafsCommunity.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="center">
</div>
<div align="center">
<em><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Stick Tap to Cole for the Art)</span></em></div>
<div align="center">
</div>
<div align="center">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Guess who's going to the playoffs? That's right! Guess who's not going to the playoffs? Scott Hartnell.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Go Leafs Go</div>
Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2610527122550067891.post-48346612757613212382013-04-17T18:21:00.002-04:002013-04-17T19:23:26.366-04:00What To Expect Moving Forward From Nazem KadriIf you spend time hanging around Twitter, you've probably heard someone say that Nazem Kadri has had a pretty lucky season. The 22-year old former 7th overall pick has been plugging along at roughly a point per game pace most of the season -- he's sitting at 41 points in 42 games right now -- and has put to bed any fear that he may not have the chops to skate in the top-6.<br />
<br />
Anyone who watches the games can tell that Kadri is a dynamic offensive player. He creates chances more consistently than any Leaf forward aside from Phil Kessel, and he's done it while often carrying 6'3", 205 lbs gorilla-winger Colton Orr on his back.<br />
<br />
That said, when you look at the numbers, it's clear that things have been going Kadri's way more often than we should reasonably expect.<br />
<br />
As things stand today, Kadri's on-ice shooting percentage is a <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=32&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67">remarkable 14.98 percent</a> which is tops in the league among forwards who have played more than 20 games. Now, while there is some evidence to suggest that on-ice shooting percentage can be sustained at high levels and has predictive value (I'll point you to <a href="http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/04/19/on-ice-shooting-percentage-is-sustainable/">this post from David Johnson at Hockey Analysis</a>) I would suggest that this season's sample is too small to expect Kadri to definitively be the type of guy who can impact a line's shooting percentage in such a significant way. By way of illustration, I'd point to last season's 9.17 percent in 21 games (7th among Leafs forwards).<br />
<br />
What mean should we be expecting Kadri to regress to exactly? Well, I would certainly say that Kadri is an improved player from the Nazem Kadri we saw last season. The challenge is that so few players post an on-ice shooting percentage of over 11 percent (<a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=32&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67">only 22 last year</a>). Is Kadri the kind of talent we can expect to do this on a regular basis? I'm a bit of a homer but personally, I think he can be close.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
What effect would an 11 percent on-ice shooting percentage have on Kadri's numbers? Well, his 41 points would turn into just over 30 points on the year, which would translate to about 59 points in an 82 game season. This may surprise many of you but those are still awfully impressive numbers. I think a lot of us are guilty of talking about point per game players as if they grow on trees but the truth is, there aren't many of them out there. Last year, there were <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=.7&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=70&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals">72 players who registered a 0.7 point per game rate over 70 or more games</a>, meaning that if Kadri were to produce at that level, he'd be giving us first-line production (top-90).<br />
<br />
So that's a cursory attempt to control for Kadri's luck this year, but what about some of the drags on his production? First of all, Kadri is 5th among Leafs forwards in powerplay icetime per game. If you follow me on Twitter, you'll know how crazy I think this is. Kadri, to my way of thinking, could be the best powerplay forward on the team if given the opportunity. He has the kind of close-quarters puck skills that thrive with the time to set up and plan your attack and his playmaking is right on par with Kessel's. <br />
<br />
If we gave Kadri the :45 second per game disparity between himself and Bozak then what would that do to his point totals? Well, 45 seconds represents 37.5% of each individual powerplay, assuming no goal is scored and the powerplay isn't interrupted by other infractions. Over the course of an 82-game season, Bozak is robbing Kadri of 30.75 full 2-minute powerplays which means, if we control for shortened powerplays when goals are scored, Kadri is off the ice when 6 powerplay goals are scored (at the Leafs' current efficiency rate of 18.1%). Does that mean Kadri would get a point on all 6 of those goals? Of course not. I think it's reasonable to say that he's probably suffering a 4-point production dip because of it though. This puts Kadri at 63 points.<br />
<br />
Kadri is also 6th on the Leafs in time on ice per game at 16 minutes. I would suggest that the sweet spot for Kadri is somewhere between that number and the 20 minutes a night that Bozak is currently getting. If we grant Kadri the :45 seconds of extra powerplay icetime then that leaves an additional 1:15 at even strength. Suddenly, Kadri's 59-point projection has been inflated to roughly 67 points in an 82 game season between extra powerplay time and a boost to his even strength minutes.<br />
<br />
Finally, there's the one thing that's nearly impossible to account for which is the possibility of Kadri skating with Kessel. On the surface, the two seem to be a match made in heaven. Both have exceptional offensive instincts and Kadri drives possession in the right direction in a way Kessel has only been able to dream of since suiting up for the Leafs. What improvement in production would we expect from both of these players if they were slotted on the same line? Look at what Kessel did to Lupul's numbers. Heck, look at what he's done with Bozak's. It would be pure conjecture for me to guess at a number but I will say that I'd be reasonably confident that Kessel would eclipse his 82-point total from last season.<br />
<br />
So there you have it. My projection for Kadri on a go-forward basis would be ~67 points in a full 82 game season if he were deployed properly. That may seem like a modest projection when looking at his current points per game in isolation but there aren't many players who put up those kinds of totals. Kadri has exceeded the expectations of many and looks to be well on his way to being a first line player in the NHL.Curt Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10817914669452185454noreply@blogger.com2